Thought I'd join since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb 2013

Since I'm new, I'll post only a google search of the recent headline (no drive-by site linking aka spam).

http://www.google.com/webhp?hl=en&t....,cf.osb&fp=3a5400d8a26e29a4&biw=1280&bih=681

Finally a use for my Klarus XT11?!

Re: Thought I'd join up since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb

Hmm... Feb 2013 they say.

I wouldn't worry about it too much, it's not going to destroy the world.

Re: Thought I'd join up since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb

Big enough to come down with the force of a nuclear blast. The Tunguska explosion/impact took out 830 sq miles of Siberian forest!!!

I hope it lands somewhere out of the way. It's possible that it will miss us entirely, but as the good Mr Murphy says, the whole universe is out to get us!

On the plus side - seeing as it is probably not an ELE (Extinction Level Event), it may galvanize our respective Governments together and put more money into our, IMHO, essential Space programs.

It seems to me that by using commercial and business outlines for space transport, we have forgotten why it is so important in profound ways beyond budgetary considerations. After all, you wouldn't build a big ship with no lifeboats would you? But the good ship Earth is all alone in the Ocean of space with just a couple of pleasure craft and some rowing boats on board.

In space no one can hear you swim....

Tell me, would you want a ticket?

Re: Thought I'd join up since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb

Most definitely not an extinction level event. Worst case, assuming it's made of something dense like iron and squarely hits a large city, it will take out some millions of people. Given that the planet is 70% water, it's highly likely to land in the oceans. It may miss entirely, or maybe be made mostly of ice, break up, and vaporize on the way down.

Now if this were ten miles across instead of 200 feet, I'd start to worry big time.

Re: Thought I'd join up since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb

Does anyone have the URL for a site that is tracking this object?

Re: Thought I'd join up since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb

jtr1962 said:

Most definitely not an extinction level event. Worst case, assuming it's made of something dense like iron and squarely hits a large city, it will take out some millions of people. Given that the planet is 70% water, it's highly likely to land in the oceans. It may miss entirely, or maybe be made mostly of ice, break up, and vaporize on the way down.

Now if this were ten miles across instead of 200 feet, I'd start to worry big time.

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If someone is inland where a Tsunami hits, generated by the impact of a meteor hitting the ocean surface miles offshore, the question about whether it's an ELE or not will be rendered purely academic. Near misses or even hits from smaller meteors will cause more than enough destruction for any living thing that is unfortunate to be near by the impact site. The Tsunami in Indonesia in 2005 and the recent Tsunami/earthquake resulting in the nuclear disaster at Fukushima are testament of what destruction a "minor event" can cause.

Re: Thought I'd join up since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb

T45 said:

If someone is inland where a Tsunami hits, generated by the impact of a meteor hitting the ocean surface miles offshore, the question about whether it's an ELE or not will be rendered purely academic. Near misses or even hits from smaller meteors will cause more than enough destruction for any living thing that is unfortunate to be near by the impact site. The Tsunami in Indonesia in 2005 and the recent Tsunami/earthquake resulting in the nuclear disaster at Fukushima are testament of what destruction a "minor event" can cause.

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Obviously it will be an ELE for anyone or anything unfortunate enough to be in the zone of destruction but humanity as a whole will go on.

Re: Thought I'd join up since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb

jtr1962 said:

Most definitely not an extinction level event. Worst case, assuming it's made of something dense like iron and squarely hits a large city, it will take out some millions of people. Given that the planet is 70% water, it's highly likely to land in the oceans. It may miss entirely, or maybe be made mostly of ice, break up, and vaporize on the way down.

Now if this were ten miles across instead of 200 feet, I'd start to worry big time.

Click to expand...

I think it would be worse if it does hit water - the extent of the destruction etc.

I remember reading about a cliff face somewhere on the coast of an ocean - the thing is this cliff of rock is unstable and collapsing, if it falls in pieces then no problems except locally, but if it all goes at once it will create a Tsunami which would cause destruction for miles of coastland far away.

I'm hoping its not iron, or that it mostly burns or breaks up, but that the bits left behind hit on land, not water.

Also really hoping this wakes people up (see earlier post).

Re: Thought I'd join up since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb

I like how we're just weighing the odds that all human life will be eradicated, vs maybe not...as opposed to addressing if its a concern or not per se.

If its now plotted to pass within earth close enough to be below some of our geosynchronous satellites, that's pretty close....close enough that one WOULD want to perhaps recheck the math a few times, make sure they carried the two, didn't confuse use meters with feet, etc....as at this range/velocity...a teeny error in trajectory can mean the difference between passing by, and hitting squarely.

Even glancing blows are pretty devastating. I think its something we'd want to avoid. Of course, until we get the spectral analysis back on it....and know if its a snow ball, or a wrecking ball, the degree of concern will be proportional.

TEEJ said:

the degree of concern will be proportional.

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That's a whole subject unto itself. Small risks with big consequences easily feel worse than big (likely) risks with small consequences.

Think about how safe a nuclear reactor would have to be (99.9999%) to happily live a half mile away vs how happily we accept risks from weapons or automobiles.

if it hit land and devastated 900 square miles, as I've just read that it might, then if we had a day's warning of where it would land then everybody could just walk out of the area of predicted devastation, say about 17 miles radius.

As it gets closer we'll certainly know more about its composition and orbit. I'm not sure how accurately we'll be able to pinpoint where it hits. It would be nice if we could do it within a 100 mile radius a few days before impact.

Re: Thought I'd join up since it looks like humanity is going to need flashlights Feb

Nyctophiliac said:

I remember reading about a cliff face somewhere on the coast of an ocean - the thing is this cliff of rock is unstable and collapsing, if it falls in pieces then no problems except locally, but if it all goes at once it will create a Tsunami which would cause destruction for miles of coastland far away.

Click to expand...

It sounds like you're talking about an eruption of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano in the Canary Islands

In this case, we're talking about several hundred km³ of rock dropping into the sea at once, albeit at a much lesser velocity than an asteroid strike.​

ElectronGuru said:

That's a whole subject unto itself. Small risks with big consequences easily feel worse than big (likely) risks with small consequences.

Think about how safe a nuclear reactor would have to be (99.9999%) to happily live a half mile away vs how happily we accept risks from weapons or automobiles.

Click to expand...

LOL - I agree 100% with that.

I'm always trying to explain that the magnitude of the consequences do not increase the likelihood of their occurrence. People PERCEIVE risk disproportionally, which is why a person asked to walk on a 12" wide path, 10' long, can do it without a problem...but put that 10' long 12" wide path over a deep chasm, and they are crawling along it on their hands and knees....because the CONSEQUENCES of screwing up are now greater.

People buy life insurance that's good for a single airline flight...but drive a car everyday without buying life insurance - as the PERCEIVED risk of the plane flight is weighed disproportionally.

So, if the consequences attributed to the impending inbound object are softened by finding out its a snow ball that will evaporate on its way in...it'll be business as usual on the planet...and if its an iron wrecking ball, well, I'm guessing people will be a bit more distracted by its arrival...the majority of people will tend to over react, the ones who ARE in danger will either be justified to be paranoids, or under prepared, and so forth.