What would you do to prepare for a potential disaster you saw coming?

Okay, this is a real life situation. This is not a drill. Imagine you live in San Diego County. The San Onofre nuclear power plant is off-line and replacement power reserves may not be available until late summer or early fall. This cuts off 20% of the county's power supplies and another 7.5% of total supplies from imported power, and limits further imports because of limits in power distribution. Rolling blackouts during the next few months are a definite possibility if replacement power isn't available in time. The EPA has passed regulations banning backup diesel generators from being on site in the event of blackouts at all local water pumping stations for your area and the local water district can't afford to replace them with approved natural gas generators. You know from past experience that if the power goes out, the water being pumped to your area flows back downhill. It can take up to a week after power is restored to get water pressure back and have the water treated if the water supply is used to fight a fire. It is fire season. You live at ground zero of both the 2003 Cedar Fire and 2007 Witch Creek Fire. Those fires were 4 years apart. It has been over 4 years since the last one. Thousands of criminals are being released early because the state is broke and can't afford to keep them in prison. Open carry of all (even unloaded) handguns has just been made illegal. If there is a blackout, odds are that the criminals will take advantage of the situation and go looting or worse. Many firefighters and police have been laid off because of budget problems as well. Both your brother and father have diabetes and need to keep their spare insulin cold in the refrigerator (which requires electricity). You do have a couple of gas generators in case of a blackout, but can only store so much gas safely. If the power goes out, you may have to protect the generators from theft. That same brother also has cancer and is going through chemotherapy. Moving the family is not an option. (Yes, this is the situation I am in.)

How would you prepare for long term widespread blackouts in a 50+ mile radius? How would you prepare for an impending water shortage? What would you do if you couldn't get gas for a generator? How would you travel to help friends and family and get supplies when all the gas runs out? How would you communicate with friends and family without power in a rural area? How would you protect your family when potential threats became real ones? How would you prepare for these potential disasters when you only have until the end of the month until they could start happening? How bad could it get when the government tells the people there's nothing to worry about, then the SHTF?

Hooked on Fenix said:

How would you travel to help friends and family and get supplies when all the gas runs out?

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That part is easy for me personally-bicycle. With a bike trailer I could easily move a week's worth of groceries 10 miles or more.

What would you do if you couldn't get gas for a generator?

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You can preemptively prepare for rolling blackouts and gas shortages by installing solar panels and battery banks. Of course that needs to be done over a time frame of years, not on a few weeks notice. The advantage of doing this is regardless of whether or not a SHTF scenario occurs, you'll save money over the long haul and not be subject to blackouts.

I'd grab my hunting and fishing gear and other basic survival supplies and head into the woods to survive off the land, sans civilization.

Not really the answer you're hoping for, but perhaps the simplest and most sensible way to escape that mess, given my interest in primitive living skills and survival techniques.

nbp said:

I'd grab my hunting and fishing gear and other basic survival supplies and head into the woods to survive off the land, sans civilization.

Not really the answer you're hoping for, but perhaps the simplest and most sensible way to escape that mess, given my interest in primitive living skills and survival techniques.

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I can understand wanting to bug out to the woods, but in this case, the woods would most likely be blocked off due to fires. Even if they weren't, during fire season, California has bans on open fires so once you run out of fuel for a stove or grill, you can't legally cook any food you caught in the woods (I think I'd actually care more about the risk of starting a forest fire than breaking the law though, if it was an emergency). If you managed to get to the woods, it's possible that it would use up most of your gas in your car. It would be harder to get away from a fire then. The last round of fires in 2007 burned pretty much the whole state.

Bugging out wouldn't work very well. It puts you at odds with civilization; requires abandoning your family, possessions, and job; requires that you only bring the minimum for surviving a week; and puts you right among all the other outcasts and survival types. That's a bad situation.

1. Get solar cells and an 'off-grid' style refrigerator. These are built to use less electricity than normal ones. They are expensive and small, but quite adequate for medicines.

2. Install decent lighting around your house. LED, properly spread, and solar-powered.

3. Yard noise. Nice crunchy gravel in the driveway. Spiky bushes tightly against the house under windows. Fragile trellises with clattery bits that can't be climbed or pushed over quietly. A useful guard dog. These involve investing time and money, but will go a long way to keeping you safe.

4. Home defense. Upgrade that door and those windows. Get a proper deadbolt (Key turner on inside, key out of reach of outsiders) and an upgraded door frame. At least use plastic film on the windows, and remove windows that would let someone reach in to open doors.

5. Safety mindset. No loitering in the driveway, sensible activities after dark, and an eye to potential threats.

Good luck! Keep them safe. I suggest a blog: Ferfal.blogspot dot com. It's a guy surviving the decay of infrastructure in Argentina. He's since saved up money and relocated, but it has archives of useful thoughts and plans.

Well, you certainly have some interesting problems. My .02$ on some of them:

Fire:

Fireproofing your home is a standard problem with standard responses. Your smart move on this is to contact your local fire dept and ask for advice. They will know your area and have expert backing.

Water:

It sounds like city water will reliably fail. Without water your home is uninhabitable. If you want to stay there you need a cistern or water tank, the bigger the better. You could disguise it as a pond or swimming pool.

For a very quick & dirty patch get 50 gallon food service barrels, line them up in the basement, fill with hose, add bleach or iodine and seal.

Medicine:

Get a pair of 12 volt DC fridges (two for redundancy) Build them into ridiculously overinsulated housings, nothing but the radiators sticking out. Get them a pair of deep cycle battery packs fed by two banks of solar cells. This should do for the insulin, no advice regarding chemo.

Security (generator):

Get ridiculously heavy locks and chains, build tie down points - cement filled steel pipes sunk into the walls or ground. If you have to store them outside leave them massively chained, maybe quietly run a lead from an electric fence charger to the frame when it's off and unattended. Also look into if you can safely add a better muffler, maybe a long perforated pipe in a bed of gravel, reduce their noticeability.

Reference:

Look up old posts by Sub Umbra, he sheltered in place through Katrina, did fine.


Good luck, let us know how you do.

Hooked on Fenix said:

I can understand wanting to bug out to the woods, but in this case, the woods would most likely be blocked off due to fires. Even if they weren't, during fire season, California has bans on open fires so once you run out of fuel for a stove or grill, you can't legally cook any food you caught in the woods (I think I'd actually care more about the risk of starting a forest fire than breaking the law though, if it was an emergency). If you managed to get to the woods, it's possible that it would use up most of your gas in your car. It would be harder to get away from a fire then. The last round of fires in 2007 burned pretty much the whole state.

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Sorry I didn't read closely enough the situation you described. I was picturing more of a post-disaster societal collapse situation. In that situation I'd sooner leave society and just live way the heck out where no one will find me.

Keep the brush clear from your area, get some water containers, a salvaged vehicle fuel tank makes an excellent gasoline container, and just as you probably have a "house flashlight", a house gun is a fine addition..

Build a fence around our property, wire it to a series of HID ballasts (obviously looted from the cars that have long run out of fuel) hooked to the 12V batteries charged by solar. 22000V through the fence will make short work of anyone trying to break in...

Thoughts/ideas off the top of my head:

Humans can go a month without food, we're SCREWED in short order without water. Your water heater is a decent supply, the 55 gallon drums mentioned are a good one as well. Locate and start using a Katadyne or similar water filter, for making questionable water clean.

For power, a Honda EU2000i or similar sips fuel, and more importantly, is QUIET. This is important when there are thieves out and about. Keep the gas tank in your vehicles between 3/4's and full. Anything happens, you have several gallons ready.

Most fridges will maintain cold for a considerable amount of time without power. Fill empty spaces in the fridge and freezer with water bottles, then monitor the temp in your fridge(a wireless indoor/outdoor thermometer would be great) and only run the generator long enough to return the fridge to proper temperature. The water bottles will take longer to cool, and stay cool longer once they are cold. Water bottles in the freezer can be moved to the fridge to help keep the fridge cool.

A power inverter, a deep cycle battery, a solar panel or three, and a cobbled-together exercise bike generator could extend this just about indefinitely.

Get a dog and a gun. Get training and lots of practice with both.

Last, freaking MOVE. You say moving isn't an option. The truth is that it would be a significant amount of work and a headache. Better start now.

Diesel Bomber makes a good point. If you don't mind elaborating, what makes moving not an option? It sounds like the situation where you are now is rather... less than ideal.

Random Guy said:

Diesel Bomber makes a good point. If you don't mind elaborating, what makes moving not an option? It sounds like the situation where you are now is rather... less than ideal.

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I'm underemployed, with a minimal amount to live on right now, living with my dad and brother. Makes it hard to move without a full time job or money. Dad owns the house, not me. Leaving would leave me without a place to stay. Last year, Dad spent over a month in the hospital from complications from his diabetes. Almost lost his eye from a Staph infection. Brother has diabetes and cancer. Currently undergoing chemo. Would lose insurance coverage if we moved. A gap in coverage could kill him. They both need someone around that doesn't have these problems to monitor and help them when they need it. Sister has started a family and lives a couple miles away with my other brother. Our family has quite a few people living in town. Makes it kind of hard to move a family with roots in place. Lastly, I teach karate at a martial arts studio with over a hundred students. I'm the most senior instructor other than the owner/head instructor. I'm not about to abandon my students.

I think you all should visit this website - stop hypothesising and start reading

http://modernsurvivalblog.com/

The only two things I haven't seen mentioned above are food and cash. It is always good to keep approximately $1,000-2,000 in cash in small bills (5,10,20) on hand as well as freeze dried and bulk foods that have long shelf lifes. Mountain House is a popular brand, as is Thrive. All you need is boiling water and you have yourself a mighty tasty meal that when stored properly can have a 20+ year shelf life.

I will reiterate that having 55 gallon barrels full of water would be extremely important.

I also feel that the answer is move.

If I 'walk the cat backwards' far enough I get to a point where it would be easier to find a place with fewer pressing liabilities built into it than those presented for the locale on the Original Post.

I'd bug out in our EDC ...





* 160gl diesel on board fuel tank
* 60gl propane on board fuel tank
* 100gl fresh water holding tank
* 7500kw water cooled diesel generator
* Solar panel on roof
* Inverter
* 4 deep cycle on board batteries
* air line
* 2 overhead ac units

Just for starters ...

The "being poor" bit limits your options. How about:

Medicine:

Write up what it would cost to get one or more solar panels, one mini-fridge, batteries, charge controller, misc drill bits, insulation, wires, and fasteners sufficient to run one mini-fridge continuously with no grid connection.

Go to the father and brother. Tell them "I'm worried about how we'll keep your insulin if we lose power for a couple of days." see if they have the interest and ability to buy the parts if you'll build it.

If "yes", do the project. If "no", then you've done all that is within your ability. Put it from your mind and move onto the next thing. That you should offer to help them is reasonable. If they refuse, don't argue or obsess over it. They do have other options, even if they're not as good as your plan.

Water:

I'm going to assume that you have the money to get one used 55 gallon food service barrel and some bleach. Get one, bring it home, clean and fill it. Between these two things you now have the basics covered.

Personal Security:

You're some kind of sensei, no? Draw upon your heritage. If I recall, the various odd weapons used in the martial arts trace back to old Japanese farm tools. They used these because peasants were forbidden any kind of real weapon. Your town falls squarely within this tradition, but you can respond just like they did. Find things that are not a firearm that you can carry. Practice with them, work up some moves.

How does your local constabularly feel about peasants, I mean citizens carrying tasers or pepper spray or nunchucks?

Also, do you focus more on randori or kata? If kata, maybe you should start up a sparring night, get yourself practiced up a little more.

Now that you guys gave some solutions to the problems, I think I'll add on and give you guys a better idea of my situation and possible solutions. I'm sure I'm not the only one in this type of situation.

Keeping insulin cool: Solar panel setup is too expensive for this solution. We have a large propane tank hooked up to the hot water tank and a stove/oven. It would probably be a good idea to invest in a small propane refrigerator and hook it up to the propane tank so we can keep insulin cool for long periods without power.

Communication: I have two way radios and a Solio Solar Charger that will work for charging them. Can't count on cell towers to be in service during a widespread blackout.

Security: My sister has dogs and her husband has police training. At my dad's house, we have weapons as well. Can't really carry a gun away from home legally in California anymore so staying close to home and bugging in will be important. Yes, I have extensive martial arts training and if need be, I can break out the swords, escrima sticks, and other weapons.

Lighting: I wouldn't be posting on this site if I wasn't covered on that front already. I'd rather use dimmer lights in this situation, though I am capable of making the neighbors think we still have power with the lights on. I'd save the bright lights only for spotting intruders.

Transportation: We have vehicles as well as a small RV for bugging out. Getting gas would be a problem in a widespread blackout.

Water: Lacking in storage capacity. At best right now, we can fill 2 5 gallon bottles and fill three bath tubs full of water when the power goes out before losing water pressure. Drain hot water heaters when the other water runs out. Now have a reverse osmosis filter if we have water but it's not clean. Have a Katadyn Pocket filter with carbon cartridge and steripens for bugging out or filtering water not on tap.

Fires: House was built to recent fire standards. Grass around house grows quick but we keep it mowed a keep plenty of clearance around the house. Still a concern trying to keep up to date on evacuations during a fire if there is a blackout. Cell phones wouldn't work and house has no land line.

If/when city water gets shut off, compromised, or contaminated, don't forget to shut off the supply leading into the house. You could wind up with a water heater full of contaminated water.

If Yellowstone were about to blow, which way would you go? Im thinking west, against the wind, in a boat, into the Pacific...