3 X class solar flares on the sun in 24 hours

In the last 24 hours, 3 X class solar flares have erupted on the sun. While the sunspot producing them (AR1748) is not currently facing the earth, I think it could be a problem in the coming days if it continues to release more of these massive solar flares. Sunspot AR1748 produced an X1.7 flare at 0217 UT May 13, an X2.8 at 1609 UT May 13, and an X3.2 at 0117 UT May 14. These flares were sequencially the largest flares this year. I have heard reports of high frequency radio signals being blocked by this solar activity already. Let's hope these flares don't cause widespread blackouts or worse like the Carrington Event.

Spaceweather.com is now listing that the sun produced an X20+ solar flare within the last 6 hours. I have never seen one that big before. At this level, it probably doesn't have to be a direct hit to cause significant problems on earth. There is also the potential of larger flares being produced as the sunspot turns toward earth in the next couple of days, although this last one was huge.

I just tried to go to spaceweather.com and the site was down! Did they power down in preparation?

Not all of my televisions are on a surge protector. Would a surge protector protect them?

Go to the right place to get your info so you don't frighten yourself too much. But yeah, the sun is angry lately.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/

obi

Poppy said:

I just tried to go to spaceweather.com and the site was down! Did they power down in preparation?

Not all of my televisions are on a surge protector. Would a surge protector protect them?

Click to expand...

I bet they are just updating the site with new information. The X20+ solar flare was only in one place on their screen last time I looked. The information was where it mentioned the largest solar flare for the last 6 hours and 24 hours (at the side of the screen). They didn't have anything written about it yet. X20 is about as high as they can get readings on as it maxes out or blocks out the sensors. The truth is we don't know if this
will affect us at all or be the next Carrington Event or be a precursor for a larger flare more earth directed. As an X20+ flare it was at least the largest flare in a decade, but it wasn't pointed directly at us. However, the last 3 X class flares were probably from the same sunspot and have already affected radio frequency communications. At the intensity of these flares, they don't have to have a direct hit to cause at least a few problems. We'll just have to wait and see what will happen. It's a good time to check on and stock up on your emergency preps just in case. Charge up the batteries. Fill up some water bottles. Get some canned food. Make sure you aren't out of t.p. Get a backup camp stove if your home stove is electric, etc. Whatever you do, don't freak out or go around freaking out others. Get yourself and your family prepared quietly. If nothing happens, you just have a few extra groceries and some camping gear. If something does happen, you're more prepared for disaster. I've found that if you go around telling everyone of coming disaster ahead of time, you end up racing those people to get the supplies you need to get through it. If nothing happens, those people you might have helped if something did happen will be the first to mock you.

Spaceweather.com seems to be back up and has removed all references to the X20+ flare that they had posted earlier today. I don't know if it was a typo or what. I just hope it was a major recording screw up and not some sort of cover up. It wouldn't surprise me either way. As I mentioned, they can really only get readings on solar flares up to about X20. X20+ could be anything from X20.1 to over X50 (probably near what the Carrington Event was rated at). Let's hope it was simply a typo on the website. Only time will tell. Either way, sunspot 1748 still has the potential for more X class flares and will be earth directed in the next few days.

There was an X28 in 2003. We've seen them before. We're not going back to the stone age.

Here's an interesting helios viewer.

http://stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu/multistatus.php

That X28 flare in 2003 wasn't directly facing earth. It was at the far right side of the sun from the vantage point of earth. It didn't cause a direct hit to earth with a coronal mass ejection. While the current sunspot AR1748 isn't currently earth directed now, it is getting there and is still spitting out X class flares. It recently caused another X1 flare at 0152 May 15 UT. (that makes 4 X class flares within 48 hours) This one is smaller than the last three but might have produced a CME that could affect earth (it's too early to say yet). Since radio waves have already been affected from the last three flares, their close timing might have a cumulative effect to a degree. I don't think a huge flare will bring us back to the stone age, but one can destroy a significant portion of our electric grid infrastructure. (These four are still not huge enough.) With the state of events in the world as they are today, I would be nervous about any widespread electrical or communications interuptions for more than a few days.

By the way, saying that we survived an X28 flare so we are perfectly safe in the future is like saying that I survived a gunshot from a guy spinning in a chair firing an assortment of bullet calibers in random directions and he missed the first time so I am safe in the future. It only takes one time under the right conditions to cause serious problems. The Carrington Event electrocuted telegraph operators and burned up wires. Imagine a similar event taking place today. Massive transformers could be destroyed, power company employees could be electrocuted (lengthening the time for repairs), our enemies (those not too affected) could take advantage of the situation and attack, communications could be down, anything operating on G.P.S. might not function; transportation, food services, water, and sewage treatment could be cut off. The flares that we've seen so far in the last 48 hours are highly unlikely to cause that kind of widespread damage, but a good sized double digit X class flare directly facing earth can cause a decent amount of trouble. I'm not worried about the flares that have already occured. I'm more concerned about the big ones that could happen in the coming days as the sunspot turns toward earth.