X4.9 Solar flare just occured

The sun just produced a massive X4.9 solar flare. The flare did produce a CME. However, due to it's location on the west side of the sun, it may not have much of an impact on earth. That's the good news. The bad news is that Sunspot AR1990 will be turning toward earth in the coming days and it has survived two entire trips around the sun so far. It produced some decent sized flares the last times around as well. Last time around it was known as AR1967. If a flare this big was facing earth and produced a CME, it would most likely cause blackouts for areas to the north such as Canada and the most northern U.S. states. So far, I think we dodged the first bullet.

It appears that the X4.9 flare will have some effect on earth after all. So far it has caused a minor S1 radiation storm. This is still no cause for alarm. If the storm builds to an S4 or higher, start worrying. However, because the sunspot was on the side of the sun instead of the front, we are probably only dealing with the parts of the CME that happened to shoot off to the side and not getting it's full effect. Still, the flare was the third largest solar flare in this 11 year cycle of the sun. There is still a possibility of the radiation storm increasing in severity in the next couple of days.

if a large Coronal Mass Ejection happens to be aimed directly at the Earth, the citizens of this planet with all of their wonderfully modern electronics will experience a reality that they have not known before. The CME effects on present-day equipment of all types would be well beyond the EMP effects caused by Starfish Prime. and probably well beyond the effects of the Solar Storm of 1859 here. Reading the comments from either event, one can only imagine what would happen to nearly all electrical/electronic infrastructure in 2014. and some day, it will happen.....

When I worked in another much more northern part of the world, it was impressive that on relatively rare ocassions, Sunspots could shut down ALL radio transmissions, and I do mean ALL. ie: I could see a 5KW AM radio station w/in a few miles of my location and I could not pick up any signal from that station, or any other transmitter. All I could hear on all frequencies was 'sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss'. All propagation was gone. Believe, me, it was sobering.

Some nice photos of the current event:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...-4-MILLION-mph-dont-worry-wont-hit-Earth.html

or from Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com/

The possibility of CMEs is one reason why I tend to prefer metal cases for electronic devices. Provided the device is not connected to the grid, a metal case effectively acts as a Faraday cage, protecting the electronics inside. Most of my electronic devices are in the basement also. That should provide a bit of protection as well.

On another note, wasn't there some type of cosmic event which would be equivalent to a Hiroshima bomb going off everywhere on Earth simultaneously? I assume they weren't talking about a worst-case CME but something far worse, and much more rare.

moldyoldy said:

When I worked in another much more northern part of the world, it was impressive that on relatively rare ocassions, Sunspots could shut down ALL radio transmissions, and I do mean ALL. ie: I could see a 5KW AM radio station w/in a few miles of my location and I could not pick up any signal from that station, or any other transmitter. All I could hear on all frequencies was 'sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss'. All propagation was gone. Believe, me, it was sobering.

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Speaking of radio propagation, I haven't been able to reliably receive time signals on my atomic watch for quite some time. Is this possibly related to the current period of high solar activity?

jtr1962 said:

On another note, wasn't there some type of cosmic event which would be equivalent to a Hiroshima bomb going off everywhere on Earth simultaneously?

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That would be a "gamma ray burst" ? Think a large (dying) star imploding into a black hole, and all the electromagnetic energy that makes it out, released in seconds, bundled into a few tight beams. Far enough away, and it's food for astronomers. 'Close' enough, but directed elsewhere, no problem. Close enough, facing earth -> that side of the earth bombarded with an incredible amount of high-energy particles (X-ray, gamma, you name it). Unlikely enough to not worry about it imho, but if it would ever happen to us, eg. killed satellites would be the least of our problems. :duck:

@moldyoldy: much radio traffic uses layers in the upper atmosphere (or above) for reflection. If such layers are upset -> reflection scatters or drowns in the background noise.

jtr1962 said:

Speaking of radio propagation, I haven't been able to reliably receive time signals on my atomic watch for quite some time. Is this possibly related to the current period of high solar activity?

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I'm getting the NIST signal okay at 15000 kHz using a radio, but my little weather station/atomic clock is having some trouble syncing up, and it doesn't usually have a problem.

Edit: I moved the station into the windowsill I usually put it in to ensure a sync, and it failed. You may be on to something..

jtr1962 said:

Speaking of radio propagation, I haven't been able to reliably receive time signals on my atomic watch for quite some time. Is this possibly related to the current period of high solar activity?

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I am not sure. Some SW bands have recently had poor propagation, but others are OK. I am receiving some signals that may have been ducted, and not off the E-Layer. Do you happen to know which frequency or frequencies that your watch is scanning for the NIST Radio WWV? I just checked my shortwave radio and on 15Mhz the NIST signal is coming in just fine. My LaCrosse weather station also indicates no problem with WWV reception although I do not recall which frequency the receiver is tuned to.

StarHalo is another SW person. maybe he knows which frequency these watches use?

Edit: StarHalo was reading and posted before I did. Thanks!

Sounds like there will be an earth directed component to the CME from this solar flare after all. Earth is expected to get a glancing blow on Thursday February 27, according to www.solarham.net . I guess now we'll have to wait and see if a significant geomagnetic storm is produced. We are currently under an S1 Radiation storm which may cause some minor radio interference. The fact that the radiation storm has reached us seems to indicate we have more coming our way. I'm not so much worried about this flare affecting earth as much as I am about sunspot AR1990 turning toward earth in the next week and causing more earth directed flares of this intensity.

The radio controlled watches and clocks in the U.S. receive signals at 60khz from Fort Collins, Colorado. At such a low frequency the signals bounce enough to be carried all over the continent. There are many shortwave frequencies used also, but the use of 60khz seems to be the frequency of choice. I've a considerable number of such watches and clocks, and haven't noticed any reception problems with any of them lately. The one I wear usually, indicates it reset at 12:02 AM, a two minute operation, which is pretty common for its reception.

Empath said:

The radio controlled watches and clocks in the U.S. receive signals at 60khz from Fort Collins, Colorado. At such a low frequency the signals bounce enough to be carried all over the continent. There are many shortwave frequencies used also, but the use of 60khz seems to be the frequency of choice. I've a considerable number of such watches and clocks, and haven't noticed any reception problems with any of them lately. The one I wear usually, indicates it reset at 12:02 AM, a two minute operation, which is pretty common for its reception.

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My radio controlled clock has been working fine but it has a long antenna. Don't forget I'm much further away from the Fort Collins time signal than you. Even under good conditions reception here for timepieces without antennas is marginal. If I just had intermittent reception I would chalk it up to weather conditions but this is well over a year where my atomic watches have rarely updated at all.

jtr1962 said:

this is well over a year where my atomic watches have rarely updated at all.

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Ah, that's not propagation, that's something local; something around you was probably installed/turned on that puts out a lot of interference on the frequency your watches use. You'll have to find a "quiet zone" somewhere in your house (even better, outdoors) that receives the signal better.

Seems the CME from the X4.9 flare has reached earth today. We are now experiencing a G2 Geomagnetic Storm. A G2 storm isn't that bad, but it may allow those of you in the northern lower 48 states to see some auroras as well as those in the more northern countries. The KP index is 6 which can give you an idea of how far south you will experience any effects. If this is how it gets when a flare this intense misses us almost completely, I think I'd be justifiably worried if it gave us a direct hit.

as I recall, the color of the Aurora indicates how deep into the atmosphere the particles are penetrating, or plasma, etc. Skipping the dim red at highest altitudes, green is color we see the most, but then the deeper reds, oranges, and even blues start showing up as the atmosphere is penetrated ever deeper. What I am curious about is if there has been any correlation between the colors and electronic/electrical disturbances. any thoughts?

I do know that during major events, the SW propagation becomes really weird, with ducting across long distances being possible. eg: across the Atlantic or Pacific. The ducting is at frequencies that should normally be bouncing off the E- or F-layers (skywave, not groundwave).

As a kid in the '50s, I remember Aurora so spectacular that my Father would stop the car along the side of the road in SW Minnesota and we could look anywhere 'up' to see undulating colorful Aurora. now, the city lights wash out most Aurora to be only a dim green.

the view of the Aurora from England:

photos: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-26378027

Map: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26381685

Notice towards the end of the article the global map showing coverage & density of the Aurora.

It is too often forgotten during viewing these spectacular displays that the Atmosphere & magnetic field of the Planet Earth is protecting us.

Yeah, heard a mention of 'northern lights' in a weather report today. Go figure... I've seen it myself once or twice, but it's pretty rare where I live. So worth mentioning in a weather report if/when it gets observed.