and I'm really asking about the situation in the comic.
Fair enough... let's take that apart:
Statement (or theory, if you will): "Jelly beans cause acne!"
(gets refuted)
New theory: "It's only a certain color that causes it."
(gets refuted for a whole set of colors)
Reporter (who doesn't seem to understand the facts, their meaning, science
or statistics) comes up with his own theory: "Green jelly beans linked to acne!"
Now a) That last 'theory' should be easy to confirm
or refute by those scientists who've already tested 20 other jelly bean colors. :laughing:
b) Reporter's claim would actually hold if original claims are true (or assumed to be true), and those 20 colors + green are all
possible jelly bean colors. A simple process of elimination, after which you're left with whatever must be true then (however likely or unlikely it seems).
c) Read closer: "
I hear it's only a certain color ...". If indeed hearsay, that makes all other claims based on quicksand.
d)
Whatever you conclude, those scientist's findings (all those jelly bean colors tested) simply stand. And will keep standing. Until experiment(s) itself are shown to be flawed somehow.
e) Reporter's public will draw its own conclusions.
So science isn't always easy. It is in some ways, but hard in other ways. Math is what it is, and statistics can be used to 'proof' anything. Like ElectronGuru said, it matters a lot what data you've got, and how it was obtained. If you're obtaining data,
all data obtained should be considered meaningful - even those 99 "fails" before your 100th "success".
So trying to compensate for incomplete data with an otherwise reliable correction sounds like a good idea.
I disagree. That's just trying to compensate for missing data by applying some correction that's worked for
other data. Depending on context, that
may make sense. Or it may attach more weight to the data than should be attached to it. Either way, it's no substitute for "obtain more / better data".
I'll spring my own theory: on average, reporters are about as dumb as the public they serve. Just more skilled where it comes to making money from their writings...