How much will prices drop.....

.....when LEDs and Luxeon Star LEDs become common (i.e. the day when most flashlights use them)? I think a lot of the reason LED flashlights are higher priced has to do with it being relatively new technology? Will see see high quality Luxeon Star flashlights at the price of a D-Cell Maglite? Or will prices only slightly drop? How long will it take before we notice prices dropping? Any predictions anyone? 10 years? 20 years? Or sooner?


I like having several LED and Luxeon Star LED flashlights, because they are so uncommon these days (all my friends that are not flashlight fans never heard of LEDs). However, I think eventually the technology will spill over to the non-flashlight enthusiasts, and incandescents might even be replaced by LEDs.

of course prices will drop..
i'd say nice luxeon lights wont ever truly be cheap, but 1 Watt and 3 Watt and 5 Watt luxeons 10 years from now wont be taking shovels to your pockets.

Can you imagine the millions of LEDs it would take just to light an office building?

the day will come tho.
i imagine they'll all be recessed and not very noticable. something spiffy like that. heh

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SureFireRocks said:
Can you imagine the millions of LEDs it would take just to light an office building?

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I think it will be a while before regular (plug in) lights are exclusively LEDs. But (battery-powered) flashlights are another story...they will probably use LEDs more often within the next few years. Right?

The biggest price drops will take place after LEDs are used commonly in automobiles. That's when they'll learn how to make 'em fast, cheap and in quantity.

^That is an excellent point!

I dont think they'll be in "wide spread" use for a while. Even if each 1watt LS cost $1, huge arrays of them for buildings would be millions of dollars.

I think when LEDs start replacing incan light bulbs in homes and offices, they won't be anything like what we have today. The technology may be similar, but it will be an entirely different animal from the LEDs and Luxeons we have today. Plus, they'll be cheap and super efficient. I don't think we'll need arrays either. I imagine some kind of omnidirectional emmitter package that can be sealed inside a glass or plastic bulb that will screw directly into a standard lamp socket and provide the same light output as a 100w incan for only a few watts. I can dream, can't I? /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grinser2.gif

An important factor in commercial lighting is how long you can go between lamp changes. A considerable amount of money is spent on replacing incandescent bulbs and flourescent tubes. LED fixtures won't need to cost less than flourescent, but will need to have a lower total life cost (which includes relamping and energy useage). We're still a few years before LED technology can catch up. A 5W LED is considered high output, but it's pretty minimal when compared to standard light fixtures. None the less, there will be technology advancements and the huge price reductions that come with high volume production. The future's so bright I gotta wear shades.

Is'nt Floresent more efficent than LEDs? but has limited application with DC voltage's

I doubt that that technology will bumped any time soon.

The emitter itself isn't always the only expensive part of a LED light. A lot of LED applications require (or at least, use) expensive power converters/regulators. There's just no other good way to effectively power a Lux III with a single 123 cell. This adds as much to the expense as the emitter itself in some cases.

Tyler,

The power electronics used by even the most sophisticated LED illumination circuits are much simpler than those in say, a $4 compact fluorescent bulb.

One day soon, white LEDs will be as cheap as red ones if not cheaper, and they will be brighter and whiter than any we have today. The price barriers are all technological rather than due to materials or fixed production costs. Eventually the technological costs will be amortized, and the prices of LEDs will reflect only their costs in materials, energy, labor, capital, and distribution.

At that time there will be no reason for LEDs to cost significantly more than machine screws, resistors, garment buttons, or a thousand other tiny, ubiquitous and cheap consumer items.

To put it another way: No LED can boast the exotic list of materials that are used in significant quantities in an ordinary incandescent lightbulb-- hi-temp glass, copper, lead, tin, tungsten, aluminum. Uniformity is critical, and the processes of filament coil winding and bulb evacuation are esoteric. Yet household bulbs can be bought for what, a quarter apiece? LED lighting will one day this cheap if not cheaper.

Chalo Colina