Moore's Law of flashlight tech? (headlamp example included)

So is there a Moore's Law for flashlight tech? What brought that question to mind is the fact that about four years ago I bought a 100lm Black Diamond Storm for north of $50. It was awesome and I was blown away. Fast forward a few years and I picked up a couple Thrunite TH20's for about $25 a piece.
The Thrunite using 1/4 the volts (I know, different from AMPs) puts out 2.5 times the lumens of the BD. The BD takes four AAA batteries while the Thrunite takes one AA. The Thrunite was also about half the price.
I know it's not an apples to apples comparison (different companies, different value class, different manufacturing, etc.). But I'm still blown away by it.
It also makes me wonder if, like Moore's Law, this trend and rate will largely continue? In a few more years will there be 500-1000lm lights running on a single 1.5v AA battery? Or is there some good LED tech reason why that trend would slow or stop at where it is right now?

NaptownJones said:

So is there a Moore's Law for flashlight tech? ....

It ... makes me wonder if, like Moore's Law, this trend and rate will largely continue? In a few more years will there be 500-1000lm lights running on a single 1.5v AA battery? Or is there some good LED tech reason why that trend would slow or stop at where it is right now?

Click to expand...

No, there is a theoretical maximum luminous efficiency ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_efficacy

... but not there yet

Interesting question and I look forward to reading up on the answer Archimedes posted.

I love my TH20 and the fact that it runs in a single AA. I used to carry 3xaaa spare for my Petzl. Now I just drop a single extra battery in my pocket and I'm covered for a nice, long night hike. They also nailed the ramping ui on this one.

The zebralight is even a bit brighter, with 330 lumens from a single AA

archimedes said:

No, there is a theoretical maximum luminous efficiency ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_efficacy

... but not there yet

Click to expand...

Archimedes, reading this makes me think you taught Leonard Nimoy how to play Spock! Your answer was so Spock-like, lol.

Live long and shine on!

LetThereBeLight! said:

Archimedes, reading this makes me think you taught Leonard Nimoy how to play Spock! Your answer was so Spock-like, lol.

Live long and shine on!

Click to expand...

Yes, Moore's law applies to LEDs just as it does to any other semiconductor. That is to say, the technology to manufacture LEDs allows the LED chip to be denser and denser as technology marches on. This means you get more light per square millimeter of surface, so that you can either get a more efficient LED with a smaller area that provides a tighter beam, or the same size LED as yesteryear provides that much more light.

In fact, LEDs benefit far more than processors do since they do not use any logic. In this way they benefit from an improvement in silicon technology the same way solar panels and memory chips do.

And then there's the fuel supply thing...
More fuel, faster from smaller batteries tends to slow down the process of brighter lights now using current technology.

I know that is not down the road thinking, yet in some ways it is... as there are perhaps some designers who'd like to push for smaller, brighter products but being told "no" due to the current fuel supply limitations. So they are faced with waiting for some other lab coat wearing dudes to move forward in efficiency. That may lead to a lack of desire to even try it down the road due to stereotypical thinking by CEO's.

There was a time when early LED flashlights weren't very bright and not very efficient. Today, the average priced mid-tier flashlight is astoundingly bright and more efficient in comparison. The technology does keep improving, but is it still a geometric progression. It does seem like the curve has begun to decline some. But the main thing at hand is that extremely competent LED flashlights are now very affordable. It all comes back to the task at hand. Do you need the brightest, farthest throwing, widest spill, or most efficient light for any given task? Not for the average person. Perhaps even for some semi-flashaholics.

I am continually amazed at what flashlights have been produced today. Some more recent innovations that I find impressive include built-in recharging and stepless dimming easily had for less than $50 USD. The heat build-up problem still exists... and I guess more emitter innovations will be necessary to solve that, or some improved combination of insulation and dissipation. I was looking at headlamps and saw that Nitecore's HC70 more than doubles the runtime of their HC65, simply by having the emitter module contained in a separate assembly connected by a long wire to the battery pack--at the trade-off of a more unwieldy form factor for light duty.

The only thing still tugging at me to possibly buy a new light is the continued miniaturization and UI improvements. Beam strength isn't as important any longer, as outside of intense search tasks most lights are more than adequate in that department.

The curve has decreased, but that's because Moore's law in general has fallen off. The chip manufacturers are at this point struggling with shrinking the technology further.