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Thread: Coronavirus - II

  1. #1111
    Administrator Greta's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    SH - Still hard to say. We don't know what caused the spike. Those numbers are not reflected in my city... and I've posted what our Memorial Day weekend looked like. I'm thinking big cities like Phoenix and Tucson did not have the massive invasion of visitors that we had. So why the increase in numbers in those cities but not mine? I don't have the answers. I don't know. Like I said... time will tell.

    Meanwhile... I'm living my life. I don't own a mask. I go to my Cigar Bar. I've gotten really good at doing my own nails and have decided I'm going to save my money on that little "luxury" now. And I trim my own hair... have been doing that for years now. I've been getting groceries delivered or doing curbside pickup for over a year now. Other people can do and believe what they want - don't care. But time will tell. Meanwhile... let the data keep coming! But let's not play armchair quarterback by interpreting it ourselves to fit our own agendas when no real interpretation has been given by ... well... anyone!
    Last edited by Greta; 06-03-2020 at 08:08 PM.

  2. #1112
    Flashaholic* KITROBASKIN's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Yes I was mistaken not following forum rules. Fixer posts funny things and was going with that. I am requesting the quote on post 1105 be deleted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Greta View Post
    Heck of a lot more relevant than whatever the hell that was you posted.



    .... and my post didn't get reported by another member. Yours did.

  3. #1113

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by Greta View Post
    SH - Still hard to say. We don't know what caused the spike. Those numbers are not reflected in my city... and I've posted what our Memorial Day weekend looked like. I'm thinking big cities like Phoenix and Tucson did not have the massive invasion of visitors that we had. So why the increase in numbers in those cities but not mine? I don't have the answers. I don't know. Like I said... time will tell.

    Meanwhile... I'm living my life. I don't own a mask. I go to my Cigar Bar. I've gotten really good at doing my own nails and have decided I'm going to save my money on that little "luxury" now. And I trim my own hair... have been doing that for years now. I've been getting groceries delivered or doing curbside pickup for over a year now. Other people can do and believe what they want - don't care. But time will tell. Meanwhile... let the data keep coming! But let's not play armchair quarterback by interpreting it ourselves to fit our own agendas when no real interpretation has been given by ... well... anyone!
    Your city had boats + water + beautiful weather + lots n lots of adult beverages = dead virus.
    Never point a flashlight at anything you don't intend to illuminate! Never buy a flashlight you have to make payments on.

  4. #1114
    Administrator Greta's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by Chauncey Gardiner View Post
    Your city had boats + water + beautiful weather + lots n lots of adult beverages = dead virus.
    As they (who ARE they?!?!) say... another day in Paradise...

  5. #1115
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Yes, I’m living my life too. My three kids and their kids and I have pretty much stopped “social distancing”. My Barber is taking appointments (and is swamped), go in on Tuesday. Golf league got nixed but many of us still go out on Wednesday afternoon. No masks. Sold my Harley and got a little Japanese bike ( don’t hate me, it’s truly more fun than the Hog was.) Go to the store when I need to and buy what I need. Basically, I stopped worrying about the virus. I still I wash and sanitize my hands a lot though. Life really does go on...
    I only fear that if something happens to me, my wife will sell all my stuff for what I told her I paid for it.

  6. #1116
    Flashaholic* turbodog's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Spoke w/ my cousin today, MD/Er doc/primary care doc, about current virus status in the deep south.

    The timely takeaway from him, as it applies to the recent posts, is that changes in behavior (memorial day, beaches opening, etc) has a 2 week delay before cases spike. I would have thought it closer to a week.

    I know my wife's hospital, as of yesterday, has ZERO ICU beds available, and it's a large hospital.

    On the 'good news' side. Wife reports that PPE at the hospital, even with a full ICU, is plentiful now (and not being rationed). No word on what the PPE is costing currently, last data was about a 500% price increase from supplier(s).
    This is your life, and it's ending one minute at a time.
    Be prepared for the truth.

  7. #1117

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    I quit wearing my mask . To be honest i just dont care anymore the world is so aweful now. If i get corona i get to have no more pain. If i get corona ill then wear a mask i dont want to harm anyone with corona
    LED's have gotten too bright in our stuff. Many nights I'm awakened by my modem lights blinking.had help with my sig thank you for your help.

  8. #1118
    Flashaholic* turbodog's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    I've been following the data from the beginning, both for the US and the World. I'm not making the data fit an assumption. I'm looking at it and seeing what trends it shows, anomalies it reveals, and so on. Here's a sample of what I have on the US.

    I took the reported active cases and displayed them as a rate (cases per million residents). Anything NOT as a rate, percentage, etc is meaningless.

    april 10 1125 (50 state average)
    april 16 1458
    april 17 1505
    april 20 1624
    april 24 1885
    april 28 2038
    may 1 2205
    may 5 2412
    may 8 2526
    may 14 2624
    may 18 2883
    may 22 2890
    may 26 2909

    If you compare april 10 (1125) to may 1 (2205), you can see a doubling in ~20 days. Thankfully you do NOT see a doubling from may 1 to may 22 (about another 20 days).

    I say 'we are slowing it down' not 'it's slowing down' because the virus will spread as fast as we let it (or help it).

    What you do NOT see in the data is a drop in the rate.
    This is your life, and it's ending one minute at a time.
    Be prepared for the truth.

  9. #1119

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Well, Chase Bank in NYC has decided to go back to business as usual. Used to be, line up, 5 people at a time, social distancing and mask wearing strictly enforced. And that's if you happen to find a branch that even offers teller services. Opened at 9:30am, closed at 4pm. And if you didn't line up at least 40 minutes before the place opens, you're going to be waiting outside for over an hour.

    Well, not anymore! showed up; security officer welcomes me in. Tells me things are back to normal. Not too normal though. The bank hours are back to normal. Couple of other things too, apparently. Everyone still wearing masks. Literally everyone. So surreal the first time I walked into the bank after things had changed. I'm wearing a black baseball cap (as usual). I'm wearing an N95 mask, I'm wearing disposable gloves. Security officer doesn't bat an eye. I'm politely welcomed by the bank teller who recognizes me.... So surreal.

    Have amassed an impressive collection of masks. Mostly, handmade by clearly very well-skilled seamstresses on Etsy. I've become an expert on masks, filters, and making effective DIY hand-sanitizers. You'd all be surprised how much I've given away to friends and acquaintances. Box of gloves, hand-sanitizer, masks, and filters. Yeah, there's a new type of survival kit out there. NY state, #1 in infection and death rates. More impressive than literally most countries. Approximately 1/5 the death tool in the entire nation. Would like to tell you guys what I'd like to see happen to our lovely Governor. But I'm sure you can use your imaginations. Doesn't involve hugs, or unicorns, or gum-drops; that's for sure.

    Thankfully the local supermarket is run by a very obnoxious older woman who isn't going back to business as usual, yet. And likely not anytime soon. So that's the latest update from the most infected city in all of America.
    "The World is insane. With tiny spots of sanity, here and there... Not the other way around!" - John Cleese.

  10. #1120
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by raggie33 View Post
    I quit wearing my mask . To be honest i just dont care anymore the world is so aweful now. If i get corona i get to have no more pain.
    Coronavirus is a respiratory infection; if you want to know how you die from it, take a fish out of water and watch it for several minutes - that's you over the course of several days. You don't want Coronavirus.

  11. #1121

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by StarHalo View Post
    Coronavirus is a respiratory infection; if you want to know how you die from it, take a fish out of water and watch it for several minutes - that's you over the course of several days. You don't want Coronavirus.
    And studies conducted here in NYC have shown that approximately 1/3 of all infected also develop severe kidney issues too.
    "The World is insane. With tiny spots of sanity, here and there... Not the other way around!" - John Cleese.

  12. #1122
    Administrator Greta's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    And can anyone give me the data on the recovery rate? How many people who have had it have had a full recovery? Anyone? Bueller?

  13. #1123

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by Greta View Post
    And can anyone give me the data on the recovery rate? How many people who have had it have had a full recovery? Anyone? Bueller?
    Wish I could provide you with those numbers, Greta. But as far as a full recovery goes, I seriously think those numbers will be quite small. As S.H. pointed out, those who get infected, and then recover; can expect a lifetime of respiratory issues with the damage the virus does to patients' lungs.
    "The World is insane. With tiny spots of sanity, here and there... Not the other way around!" - John Cleese.

  14. #1124
    Flashaholic* turbodog's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by Greta View Post
    And can anyone give me the data on the recovery rate? How many people who have had it have had a full recovery? Anyone? Bueller?
    The last day I posted data for, May 26, saw a US average of 2909 active cases per million people, and a death rate of about 10% of that.

    I have not looked as hard at death numbers as I have infection ones. The deaths lag infection by a couple of weeks so they are harder to compare. However, that said, there is no data CURRENTLY to show that death rates are dropping.

    Common sense suggests that once the virus burns through the most vulnerable the death rate should taper off. However, if infection rates keep increasing, eventually healthcare system(s) will be overrun which may counteract this.


    Anecdotally, I can tell you about my father, mother,and aunt who have all recovered. Dad showed symptoms (fever, slight cough) for several days. The women were completely asymptomatic. Wife has employees who have recovered. But we've also lost a few here and there...

    Sort of important to note that these are CASE mortality rates, not overall. But we've got to make decisions based on what data is available (and historical data from prior pandemics).
    Last edited by turbodog; 06-03-2020 at 09:59 PM.
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  15. #1125
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by Greta View Post
    And can anyone give me the data on the recovery rate? How many people who have had it have had a full recovery? Anyone? Bueller?
    Latest info published by CDC (as of 5/20/20) presents 5 possible "scenarios" with various critical variables set at the lower and upper bounds of what may be supported by the data at this time (stratified by age) ...

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

    The "fifth" scenario is their "best estimate"

    Lots of info there, but overall estimated survival of "symptomatic cases" is cited at 99.6% (all ages)

    They also approximate that 35% of infections are completely asymptomatic (with lower and upper bounds of 20% to 50% )

    If that 35% value is correct, that would obviously increase the survival rate for "all cases" (including those without symptoms) to approximately ~ 99.74%
    Last edited by archimedes; 06-03-2020 at 11:15 PM.
    ... is the archimedes peak

  16. #1126
    Flashaholic* RedLED's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnnyh View Post
    Yes, I’m living my life too. My three kids and their kids and I have pretty much stopped “social distancing”. My Barber is taking appointments (and is swamped), go in on Tuesday. Golf league got nixed but many of us still go out on Wednesday afternoon. No masks. Sold my Harley and got a little Japanese bike ( don’t hate me, it’s truly more fun than the Hog was.) Go to the store when I need to and buy what I need. Basically, I stopped worrying about the virus. I still I wash and sanitize my hands a lot though. Life really does go on...
    Wait you sold your Harley? Did you get a Honda Monkey bike? I am getting one to keep at our desert country club home to ride inside the club. My ninja 636 for outside the C.C! These monkey bikes are just like the Honda Mini Trails of the late 60's, and early 1970's. I had one in 1971' and loved it! So, I am going to get one soon.
    Check my Web Site: www.Redwayphoto.com

  17. #1127
    Flashaholic* turbodog's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by archimedes View Post
    Latest info published by CDC (as of 5/20/20) presents 5 possible "scenarios" with various critical variables set at the lower and upper bounds of what may be supported by the data at this time (stratified by age) ...

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

    The "fifth" scenario is their "best estimate"

    Lots of info there, but overall estimated survival of "symptomatic cases" is cited at 99.6% (all ages)

    They also approximate that 35% of infections are completely asymptomatic (with lower and upper bounds of 20% to 50% )

    If that 35% value is correct, that would obviously increase the survival rate for "all cases" (including those without symptoms) to approximately ~ 99.74%

    Unless I'm misreading their chart/grid, those are not percentages... so multiply by 100%.

    To note: "Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020"

    The time for symptoms and time to seek healthcare numbers mirror my cousin's experience of ~2 weeks.
    This is your life, and it's ending one minute at a time.
    Be prepared for the truth.

  18. #1128
    Flashaholic* RedLED's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by raggie33 View Post
    I quit wearing my mask . To be honest i just dont care anymore the world is so aweful now. If i get corona i get to have no more pain. If i get corona ill then wear a mask i dont want to harm anyone with corona
    Come on, Big Chief, wear your mask, and relax you will make it thru this. You Don't want to get the virus. Calm down, you willl be just fine.

    All the best,

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  19. #1129
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by turbodog View Post
    Unless I'm misreading their chart/grid, those are not percentages... so multiply by 100%....
    Correct, "overall symptomatic case fatality ratio" is estimated as 0.004 (or 0.4% )
    Last edited by archimedes; 06-03-2020 at 11:26 PM.
    ... is the archimedes peak

  20. #1130

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    To be honest I haven't been watching the numbers anymore. It seems as though in many places the numbers are still climbing, but more and more people are being tested.

    I get what some are saying that the numbers rising have accelarated. Frankly I still proceed with caution. But if I'm not mistaken, in numerous places the percentage of folks tested who show positive is declining.

    I have never feared dieing from it. Looking at numbers from places prior to it reaching the US showed (except N Italy) it wasn't very deadly. My fear was the lung damage afterward. My lungs or those of my senior around me at work. My biggest fear has been causing others to end up with damaged lungs if they got the virus from me.

    In some places the hand shake may be a thing of the past. But in places where the spread is nill folks are starting to shake hands again. The weather has turned to right warm in my state lately, so we shall see if and how that affects things here.

    Edit: Went back and looked numbers for my state by age group and saw my age group that was in first place moved back to third. 50-59 was first with 60-69 racing for first. 40-49 and 30-39 took over and are neck and neck with 20-29 racing my age group for third. Meanwhile 60+ are falling farther behind in the case numbers total.
    40-49 was giving 50-59/60-69 a run for a while but broke away with 30-39 pulling up beside it. It'll be interesting to see how the large gatherings in big cities affects the numbers in the 20-29/30-39 group as that apprears to be ages of most gatherers.
    End edit.
    Last edited by bykfixer; 06-04-2020 at 11:22 AM.
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  21. #1131
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    I agree with not wanting to give someone lung damage. I was diagnosed with asthma in February and I am still dealing with it. Not what I call fun but I spent a lot of time in my youth working on dairy farms and a lot of summers in the hay mows stacking said hay. I would not wish this on anyone.
    Life is all about having the very best lights.

  22. #1132
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by Monocrom View Post
    And studies conducted here in NYC have shown that approximately 1/3 of all infected also develop severe kidney issues too.
    Sorry, but I call BS to this.

    Serologic testing results released on April 23, 2020 showed that 21% of NYC has antibodies, (one must have been infected to develop antibodies.) A quick calculation of 9,000,000 people means that approximately 1,890,000 people have been infected. Yet there are only 200K confirmed cases, with 16,000 deaths.

    Two weeks ago, May 20, 2020 Here are the results of antibody testing in NYC

    Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced the results of the state's antibody testing survey at churches in lower-income New York City communities and communities of color show 27 percent of individuals tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, compared with 19.9 percent of New York City's overall population. The data was collected from approximately 8,000 individuals and shows high positive rates and continued high community spread in these low-income communities.

    more...


    Last edited by Poppy; 06-04-2020 at 10:31 AM.
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  23. #1133
    *Flashaholic* idleprocess's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Looking over my county's statistics:
    • 1435 total confirmed cases (0.16% / population)
    • 705 active cases (49.1% / confirmed)
    • 698 recovered cases (48.6% / confirmed)
    • 32 deaths (2.2% / confirmed)
    • 13,900 total tested : 89.7% negative; 887k estimated population / 1.5% tested


    That curve isn't flattening. Mercifully the case load seems manageable based on the top-level utilization statistics provided. Of the two closest hospitals, one seems to have a relative handful in isolation wards and another seems not to have any right now.

    Mask mandates have effectively expired and by my rough estimate only about 25% of people out and about are wearing them with retail staff at perhaps 75%.

    Testing remains the great unknown - there have been some drive-through testing popups but they're often restricted or during work hours. I suspect a statistically significant cross-section of the county has skipped testing for the above reasons as well as feeling fine and avoiding contact with large numbers of people. Like areas that have done larger-scale tests there's probably a markedly greater asymptomatic prevalence in the community than the hard numbers suggest - and as such the actual lethality rates are surely lower and the recovery numbers far better.
    I apologize that this letter is so long; I did not have time to write a short letter

  24. #1134

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Interesting new reports saying tear gas will likely accelerate spread of Covid, which makes the protesters‘ signs to the police to stop killing them sadly ironic.
    Last edited by ledbetter; 06-04-2020 at 01:40 PM.

  25. #1135
    Flashaholic* RedLED's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    California has begun allowing restaurants to open again with some rules, however, the restaurants themselves are adding their own rules. Example, you make a reservation several days out, then they call you, and ask your name, and birthdate, as well as, the names and DOBs of all in your party, and then when you arrive you are asked a series of medical questions, and one negative response from your party cancels everyone out from dining. If all answer OK, they sign a release.

    This from the people who complained so much about being closed? If I owned a restaurant, I would keep it closed instead of going through all this garbage the lawyers want.

    What a ** nightmare. I would not eat at a place that did this. Let me add, that I want the restaurants back more than anyone, I hate cooking, grilling - all of it. I have spent decades traveling and eating at some wonderful places, and really miss it.

    ** Really?
    Last edited by RedLED; 06-05-2020 at 12:44 AM.
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  26. #1136
    *Flashaholic* PhotonWrangler's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Any restaurant that demands everyone's DOB is doing something highly questionable. This is a potential vector for identity theft and I imagine that this practice will get shut down pretty quickly.

  27. #1137

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Nope, not going to a restaraunt like that.

    We have some rules being put in place in my state too Red, but nothing like that.

    Wait until 5g is wide spread. You won't have to tell them who you are because they'll already know.
    A fellow did a story about his experience with it in China saying he rented a bicycle using a 5g phone and google wallet. He said at one point he entered a restaraunt and while looking at an e-menu the screen said "hello (insert his name here)" and asked what he would like to order. He said the money was automatically deducted from his google wallet. He said when he returned the bicycle he tossed the 5g phone in the trash.

    Another story corona related is police in China have thermometers built into their visors that tell the "system" of cameras when a person read above normal body temp and that person would be quickly whisked away by the corona cops.

    It's probably pretty convenient to walk into a burger joint and the menu know who you are and what you typically order, but pretty freaking scarey at the same time.
    Last edited by bykfixer; 06-04-2020 at 04:58 PM.
    John 3:16

  28. #1138

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by Poppy View Post
    Sorry, but I call BS to this.

    Link ~ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wzci-h9dOPs

    Also ~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obdhys0hEGA

    And ~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJtfesZlvcw

    Feel free to type in "Kidney issues and covid-19" into the YouTube Search bar for a mountain of more videos dealing with how the two issues are related. Or, simply believe what you want to. I don't spread BS on these forums. And I've been on CPF long enough that others know it too. Honestly, I took you off of my Ignore List a couple of weeks ago because I forgot why I put you on there. Thanks for reminding me. Appreciate it. Back on you go.
    Last edited by Monocrom; 06-04-2020 at 04:49 PM. Reason: Fixed a broken link.
    "The World is insane. With tiny spots of sanity, here and there... Not the other way around!" - John Cleese.

  29. #1139
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    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    You'll be more receptive to going to the restaurant when there's no movie theater..

  30. #1140

    Default Re: Coronavirus - II

    Quote Originally Posted by StarHalo View Post
    You'll be more receptive to going to the restaurant when there's no movie theater..
    AMC has said they might likely have to file for bankruptcy. Streaming services crippled them, looks like the planetary pandemic and being forced to close, might end them.
    "The World is insane. With tiny spots of sanity, here and there... Not the other way around!" - John Cleese.

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