# Thread: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

1. ## how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

just wondering

2. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

Originally Posted by raggie33
just wondering
Very good summary by Toykeeper in this thread from blf: http://budgetlightforum.com/node/73555

3. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

i was hopeing it would be 500 lumens per watt? im not a fan of hi cri they look to yellow to me

4. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

There is a limit. With a "daylight white" LED the maximum is ~225lm/W. At 555nm (yellow-green) the limit is at 683lm.

That is the physical limit. A higher output would need a "better" physic. But since Einstein and Hawking are dead I don't believe in some new revolution in this area....

Current "high output LEDs" are in the range 150-170lm/W if I am not wrong.

5. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

darn i wanted to have a small single aaa light that could light up a field

6. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

One thing in ToyKeeper's thread on BLF (linked above) that everyone seems to have missed is that there is still enormous potential in reducing the heat generated per lumen. This is what limits the current generation of LED bulbs to a few hundred watt equivalent. 100W equivalent bulbs have finally gotten to be reasonably priced, but '200W' bulbs are \$55 at the local home center! Not to mention they are bigger and won't fit in many fixtures.

An increase in radiometric efficiency from the current neighborhood of 50%, to 75% might seem modest, but it would cut the heat in half. That would allow you to put twice as many LEDs on the same heatsink, and triple the light output. By this measure, we still have an infinitely long way to go.

7. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

how many lumens per watt was the first arc aaa flashlight?im wondering how far we have come

8. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

From what I read, ~250 lumens/W should be achievable in near future but is at the low end of theoretical estimates. Some estimates go up to 400 lumens/W and above but this is a fairly simple question with no one definitive answer. It depends on CRI and CCT. Some with better efficacy have low CRI (below 80) and colour temperature may not suit residential or most industrial use, whatever the intent. It also depends how the light is generated whether by phosphor conversion or multiple monochromatic sources e.g. RGB. Efficacy has different definitions whether across the whole spectrum of the LED, just those in certain visible range, and whether accounting for the eye's varying sensitivity across its visible spectrum (which peaks in the green range as noted). And of course there is "raw" device efficacy versus lower "wall-plug" value which includes optical loss and driver efficiency. There are some interesting articles out there though some are theoretical and a bit hard to follow at times; but a very interesting topic. One article noted that low pressure sodium lamps reach 200 lumens/W but are monochromatic with terrible CRI, in fact a negative number! I concur, until recently had them on streets around here but have since been switched to LEDs. LEDs we have now are very decent compared to incans, so I am not disappointed up by the slowdown in efficacy improvement as the easier part is done. It's pleasing to find white LED 60W bulb equivalents at 6.5W which is nearly 10x better than icans. Who knows, in a decade a new form of lighting technology may find its way in... Dave Interesting: text of my post was cut off by presence of the "less than" symbol "

9. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

Originally Posted by raggie33
how many lumens per watt was the first arc aaa flashlight?im wondering how far we have come
Not sure but at the time it came out LEDs were about 30-40 lumens for a 1watt LED (luxeon 1) and when crees came out they were soon 60-80 lumens/watt and the Arc AAA was a 5mm LED (I think nichia) and 5mm LED didn't jump up in efficiency as fast as the high power ones so I'm thinking it was about 15-30 lumens/watt efficiency todays 5mm LEDs may be in the 100-130 lumens/watt for name brand up to date I would think (don't really know for sure). IMO unless you are "sold" on 5mm LEDs I would not be concerned about their efficiency and instead opt of a power LED like a cree XPG, XPL, etc or if a tint snob a nichia power LED (less efficient due to hi CRI).

10. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

Originally Posted by Lynx_Arc
Not sure but at the time it came out LEDs were about 30-40 lumens for a 1watt LED (luxeon 1) and when crees came out they were soon 60-80 lumens/watt and the Arc AAA was a 5mm LED (I think nichia) and 5mm LED didn't jump up in efficiency as fast as the high power ones so I'm thinking it was about 15-30 lumens/watt efficiency todays 5mm LEDs may be in the 100-130 lumens/watt for name brand up to date I would think (don't really know for sure). IMO unless you are "sold" on 5mm LEDs I would not be concerned about their efficiency and instead opt of a power LED like a cree XPG, XPL, etc or if a tint snob a nichia power LED (less efficient due to hi CRI).
i ordered some cheap single aaa flashlights they came with a deffuser pocket clip keychain .and they was only like 11 bucks shiped. what a fun time to be a flashoholic . i recal my arc aaa and how much it shocked me as how bright it was ive lost in a few times and always miss it

11. ## Re: how many lumens per watt can we expect in in year 2030

Originally Posted by raggie33
i ordered some cheap single aaa flashlights they came with a deffuser pocket clip keychain .and they was only like 11 bucks shiped. what a fun time to be a flashoholic . i recal my arc aaa and how much it shocked me as how bright it was ive lost in a few times and always miss it
sound like my lumintop AAA light but I lost the diffuser somewhere not a bad pocket light though. the 120 lumen high mode blows away old 5mm AAA LED lights big time

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