Corona Virus... the second wave

[turbodog]

...

Yes == Open ...

Doubt you meant it this way, but double equals signs actually denotes NOT equals.

[Poppy]

It may be wishful thinking, or that *I* am not following the stats closely enough, but I *think* over the past week the number of NEW cases has dropped off nationally, slightly. Hopefully we have peaked. BUT the number of new cases has increased so rapidly this year, the number of hospitalizations may not yet have caught up, and the following number of deaths.

Let's hope that the hospitals can keep up, and eventually catch a breath. In some areas, it is fairly likely that some hospitals will have to ration care, which will drive up the death rate. Scary!

[orbital]

+

Just the good old fashion Open


_______________________________
so then === is Super Open

[SCEMan]

I'm getting the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine today at the LA Fairplex about 3 miles away. Got lucky registering for it as this state ranks last in inoculations. Don't know when I'll ever get the 2nd dose.

[ledbetter]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/m...e=articleShare

Very thorough report on “Long COVID.”

[Poppy]

I got my Moderna shot on Friday at a supermarket pharmacy. I scheduled it about a month ago, and before I left, they had already scheduled my second shot appointment 4.5 weeks later, Feb. 24.

[jtr1962]

It may be wishful thinking, or that *I* am not following the stats closely enough, but I *think* over the past week the number of NEW cases has dropped off nationally, slightly. Hopefully we have peaked. BUT the number of new cases has increased so rapidly this year, the number of hospitalizations may not yet have caught up, and the following number of deaths.

Let's hope that the hospitals can keep up, and eventually catch a breath. In some areas, it is fairly likely that some hospitals will have to ration care, which will drive up the death rate. Scary!

You don't have to guess. Just look at the model. So far it has a very good track record. Thankfully, it looks like we're close to peaking in terms of the number of daily deaths and new infections but we're several weeks away from seeing a notable downward trend. For the next few weeks daily death and hospital use will probably more or less remain constant. After that it starts declining. Slowly if we insist on opening things back up, more rapidly if we use masks and have rapid vaccine rollout. The projection only goes until May 1 but if enough people get vaccinated we might have very few daily deaths by the summer. I long for the time when the authorities say it's been 2 or 3 months since the last confirmed covid-19 case in the US.

[turbodog]

It may be wishful thinking, or that *I* am not following the stats closely enough, but I *think* over the past week the number of NEW cases has dropped off nationally, slightly. Hopefully we have peaked. BUT the number of new cases has increased so rapidly this year, the number of hospitalizations may not yet have caught up, and the following number of deaths.

Let's hope that the hospitals can keep up, and eventually catch a breath. In some areas, it is fairly likely that some hospitals will have to ration care, which will drive up the death rate. Scary!

All my data show we have hit another peak, #2, counting the one back in July/Aug, and are retreating from it.

My prediction, unless things drastically change, is that this is the last one given that 1) vaccines are rolling out and 2) we have a long time before another 'spreader' event comes along.

The prior peaks had us back at/above the peak level in ~2 months. However, this time, in 2 months, between a building # of recovered & vaccinated people, we should be in good shape.

This is not saying we won't see state/regional/city peaks (re: capitol sedition people), but overall we are finally 'on the mend'.

[PhotonWrangler]

Canadian researchers discover existing oral drug shows promise in treating Covid patients.

[markr6]

I wonder if we're at a plateau, or better?

1. The people that have been staying locked in at home this long aren't going to change now, so they continue to be safe
2. Those very susceptible got it and unfortunately succumbed to the virus
3. The rest of us going about our daily business either got it and didn't even know, or dealt with the symptoms for a few days. I had a few co-workers go to the local pharmacy for a $25 antibody test and amazingly (or not) most did have it in the past without knowing.
4. And now we can start adding in those who are vaccinated...albeit a slow as molasses pace.

[turbodog]

I wonder if we're at a plateau, or better?

1. The people that have been staying locked in at home this long aren't going to change now, so they continue to be safe
2. Those very susceptible got it and unfortunately succumbed to the virus
3. The rest of us going about our daily business either got it and didn't even know, or dealt with the symptoms for a few days. I had a few co-workers go to the local pharmacy for a $25 antibody test and amazingly (or not) most did have it in the past without knowing.
4. And now we can start adding in those who are vaccinated...albeit a slow as molasses pace.

The US is at about 6% vaccinated. Adding the 10% confirmed infected (and maybe the same # asymptomatic) gives us ~25%. Long way to herd immunity of ~80%.

Vaccination started ~6 weeks ago... so we are 4% a month give or take. I expect this will pickup as we get better at this. But overall, I think the worse is behind us.

[jtr1962]

Also, treatments keep getting better and better. My best guess is we'll be dealing with this in one form or another for at least several years, but it'll drop below "pandemic" levels within six months and stay there. There might be annual vaccinations for a while to deal with mutations. There will almost certainly be localized shut downs to deal with flare ups. But hopefully the days of widespread shut downs, major community spread, and hundreds or thousands of daily deaths will be over in some months.

[orbital]

+

High intensity UV lights retrofitted into ventilation systems in building/planes ect.. will likely be fitted into our world.

Was going to invest some in Honeywell last May and didn't, just couldn't swing it at the time (now I'm pissed about it)
That's the kind of thing Honeywell does.

[PhotonWrangler]

It looks like filtered far-UVC 222nm lights might be a winner if they can get the costs down. The eximer lamps are more exotic than conventional mercury-based UVC 254nm lamps but they have one major advantage: continuous disinfection in occupied areas with no harm to humans or animals.

Update - Just found an article about a company that claims to have invented the first solid state far-UVC lamp. I don't know if this is real or vaporware though.

[jtr1962]

Indeed. I think any companies doing R&D for far UVC lights will be big winners. Continuously disinfecting public spaces will not only mitigate future pandemics, but also have a huge impact on the annual cold and flu seasons. It's really a win-win, and once installed, the operating costs are tiny relative to the benefits.

[adamlau]

High intensity UV lights retrofitted into ventilation systems in building/planes ect.. will likely be fitted into our world.\

This is something we have seen in residential construction for at least the past ten years. I have two Steril-Aire RSE II installed (one per coil per FAU). Was meant to reduce coil maintenance, limited as a germicidal measure in the home. I had the same RSE II units installed in my previous home. American Ultraviolet sells similar units.

[turbodog]

I'm going contrarian on the UV predictions. Between infections and vaccinations getting a handle on it... that addresses the short term problem.

Mutations almost universally make stuff less lethal. And people are universally lazy... so we will ignore the UV stuff except for fringe adoption.

Even then, UV lights decline in output... so unless maintained/replaced they will quit working. And I really question the efficacy of the net effects of the lights due to airflow being multi pass and not single pass filtered.

[WarriorOfLight]

I don't think that UV light that "disinfect" the air will really result in a significant decrease of the infections at all. It is only a way to make additional money.

The only way is that this pandemic will be stopped if ~60-70% were infected or vaccinated. Than the probability will rise that infection chains will break.

Actually it does not looks like the infection rates are going down. Even the infection rates in China are going up (at least the Hopkins website says this), and we all do not know how this numbers were filtered in China. This shows to all of us that even in political systems were you can do almost everything with the citizens the pandemic can not really be stopped.

[markr6]

Without really watching the numbers daily, the main thing that signaled to me things were improving was my local news site. They stopped putting the big "XXXX new cases; XX additional deaths" for my state on their home page. Two-thousand some cases and just a couple deaths, if any, isn't sexy enough for that big banner like 6000+ was. Hope it holds.

[orbital]

+

Part of the UV air sterilization is the effect on sentiment, if people feel their school, plane, business, whatever is even slightly safer,
it becomes a small step to backtonormalness.
Say Walmart has a sign showing air sterilization in progress ,, you may feel a bit better about things
& for Walmart, maybe buy some more stuff.

It's a step toward positive sentiment, which is not a terrible thing & not terribly tricky.


the symbol {*}

[raggie33]

im watching outbreak. its such a scary movie it scared me even before covid 19! imagine being the guys who had to bomb the town. i for sure rather be a town member then the guys in the plane

[turbodog]

im watching outbreak. its such a scary movie it scared me even before covid 19! imagine being the guys who had to bomb the town. i for sure rather be a town member then the guys in the plane

Well that's an interesting take on that movie, for sure.

[WarriorOfLight]

im watching outbreak. its such a scary movie it scared me even before covid 19! imagine being the guys who had to bomb the town. i for sure rather be a town member then the guys in the plane

Than I recommend Contagion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film)), that is in most parts exactly what happened at the moment. But yes, also this movie has some "Hollywood specific" parts, but no bombs and no military stuff at all.
The reality level for Contagion may be at 60-70%, for Outbreak I would say it is less ...

And regarding Outbreak movie: The idea of an Ebola strain that has a higher infection rate is not realistic. The base problem with Ebola is that between "infection - symtoms - dead" the timespan is far to short. That is the reason why there are still people in Africa and big cities are not complete empty. And there were Ebola outbreaks even in larger cities...

A wide spreading virus must have:
- high infection rate
- infection between human - human
- long enough timespan between infection and the first symtoms to has the possibility of infecting enough people.

That is the reason why Ebola was never a virus for a pandemic that we currently have. Also the outbreak of viruses in the past always had one piece missing. We had swine flew, bird flew, SARS - 2003 ... and so on. There was always at least one piece missing.

[orbital]

..The base problem with Ebola is that between "infection - symtoms - dead" the timespan is far to short. That is the reason why there are still people in Africa and big cities are not complete empty. And there were Ebola outbreaks even in larger cities...

+

Yes Ebola was/is too good of a virus in that it killed its victims just too quickly. There was not the duration to spread the disease, so the virus literally killed itself.
I read The Hot Zone when it very first came out (like 25 years ago), that's the biggest thing I took away from that book.

[turbodog]

Doesn't J&J make Ebola vaccine now?

[turbodog]

Also, FYI about vaccine registration, specifically the 2nd dose.

If your state is like mine, all doses are sched through one main website. Go there and get shot #1 lined up.

Now the state "said" they were reserving 2nd dose stockpile, but 2nd dose schedules were always unavailable. And as I'm getting reasonably close to dose #2 I was concerned.

They had locked out scheduling until you got close to the date. I confirmed by going into the portal and entering a dose #1 date further back in the past. All of a sudden, thousands of slots appeared in the scheduling board.

[SCEMan]

Also, FYI about vaccine registration, specifically the 2nd dose.

If your state is like mine, all doses are sched through one main website. Go there and get shot #1 lined up.

Now the state "said" they were reserving 2nd dose stockpile, but 2nd dose schedules were always unavailable. And as I'm getting reasonably close to dose #2 I was concerned.

They had locked out scheduling until you got close to the date. I confirmed by going into the portal and entering a dose #1 date further back in the past. All of a sudden, thousands of slots appeared in the scheduling board.

Ditto in my disaster of a state. Dead last in inoculations with a witless governor who'll hopefully be recalled. I'm supposed to get my 2nd dose about the middle of February but it doesn't look likely anything will be available in the foreseeable future.

[Monocrom]

Ditto in my disaster of a state. Dead last in inoculations with a witless governor who'll hopefully be recalled. I'm supposed to get my 2nd dose about the middle of February but it doesn't look likely anything will be available in the foreseeable future.

Unfortunately, that's how it looks like it. I know a ton of folks who have gotten the 1st injection, but have no clue when they'll get the 2nd one.

[markr6]

Unfortunately, that's how it looks like it. I know a ton of folks who have gotten the 1st injection, but have no clue when they'll get the 2nd one.

Fauci and crew were actually discussing this as a strategy a while back. Whether to spread the first one out to more people or wait until both shots were given to a smaller group. I wonder if they actually decided on this, or if it just happened naturally based on production limitations?

[Monocrom]

Fauci and crew were actually discussing this as a strategy a while back. Whether to spread the first one out to more people or wait until both shots were given to a smaller group. I wonder if they actually decided on this, or if it just happened naturally based on production limitations?

I mean, the solution is rather obvious. If the vaccine needs to be given in 2 shots to actually work, then there's no point giving everyone one; and then waiting for the 2nd one to be ready. You're going to have a ton of people who'll get the 1st, and then (knowing human nature) they're not going to come back to get the 2nd one when it's finally available. So all you do is waste massive amounts of the first shot.