Corona Virus... the second wave

[jtr1962]

As an aside, I am not any kind of anti-vaxxer. I trust that these vaccines are probably as safe as any of the other ones people regularly take. But it gets a little weird when some folks start talking about forcing medical treatments on people, so I think that is an area that requires care and sensitivity and patience. We should all show love and concern for our neighbor and their safety, but also respect their feelings about medical care. It is a delicate balance. That was my only point really.

Just to be clear, I highly doubt most here want to force people to get vaccinated. My position is work places and schools should eventually require it, same as they require other vaccinations. That basically still leaves people with a choice. Sure, they'll have to work at home and home school their children if they refuse vaccination, but it's still up to them whether or not to get vaccinated.

I also don't understand the entire anti-vaxxer thing. Most of the issues with vaccines existed for types of vaccines which are not even used any more. My understanding of the covid-19 vaccine is that it simply puts messenger RNA into your blood so you make antibodies. The messenger RNA is quickly flushed from your body, within a day I believe. The only side effects might be anaphylaxis but there's nothing in the vaccine which could cause long-term side effects. It's puzzling why some people worry about vaccines, or other things with extremely low potential to harm you, but are fine sitting in automobiles where they breathe a toxic stew of known carcinogens from outgassing plastics and auto exhaust day in and day out. Or eat food laced with all sorts of carcinogenic chemicals.

[turbodog]

I'll probably be wearing a mask indefinitely whenever I'm in a indoor public place (but not outdoors) once this is over. I don't like being sidelined by colds, or more occasionally the flu. I'll also continue to keep at least 6 feet away from people indoors for the same reason. I figure I'll not only avoid seasonal illnesses by doing this but if another pandemic starts before I'm aware of it the mask will at least offer some protection. Of course, if we start disinfecting public spaces continuously with UV-C I won't feel a need to do these things.

I'm no longer going to stadiums, theaters, indoor restaurants, or anything similar, ever. Even in the best of times these places are like petri dishes. Besides, it's not like I went to them that often anyway.

I an curious to see the long term effect of this on behavior in general. I was never a handshaker, don't miss it, and hope it never comes back. Seen too many sneezes in the hand and so on...

[markr6]

I will say, I did not get my usual chest cold around chirstmas. Dirty nasty people cleaning up their act

[jtr1962]

I an curious to see the long term effect of this on behavior in general. I was never a handshaker, don't miss it, and hope it never comes back. Seen too many sneezes in the hand and so on...

I'm fine myself if handshakes go the way of the dodo. I've seen too many people leaving the stall in the men's room without washing their hands.

[PhotonWrangler]

I'm fine myself if handshakes go the way of the dodo. I've seen too many people leaving the stall in the men's room without washing their hands.

Weren't handshakes originally a way of showing that you didn't have a weapon in your hands?

[markr6]

I'm fine myself if handshakes go the way of the dodo. I've seen too many people leaving the stall in the men's room without washing their hands.

#2, even if it was a fakeout, requires a hand wash. Just an unwritten rule. I touch NOTHING inside restrooms.

[markr6]

CDC says vaccinated individuals can gather indoors without masks now...for now.

[idleprocess]

Got shot #1 this evening. Didn't grow a 4th eye and no one seemed to care about the 3rd eye. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

[PhotonWrangler]

Got shot #1 this evening. Didn't grow a 4th eye and no one seemed to care about the 3rd eye. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

That third arm is coming in handy though. Makes soldering a breeze.

[Chauncey Gardiner]

Got shot #1 this evening. Didn't grow a 4th eye and no one seemed to care about the 3rd eye. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Hopefully, better vision. And yes, I saw what you did there.

[bykfixer]

CDC says vaccinated individuals can gather indoors without masks now...for now.

LOL,
But has Fauchi approved that

[ledbetter]

LOL,
But has Fauchi approved that

His name is Dr. Anthony Fauci. Show some respect.

[markr6]

His name is Dr. Anthony Fauci. Show some respect.

Lil' Tony

[ledbetter]

Lil' Tony

Quoting America’s best and brightest, huh? LMAO!!

[Lynx_Arc]

LOL,
But has Fauchi approved that

If he has, I wouldn't put it past him to change his mind a month later when someone else says otherwise.

[ledbetter]

If he has, I wouldn't put it past him to change his mind a month later when someone else says otherwise.

The beauty of science is its continual renewal based on changing and verified observed facts.

[markr6]

Quoting America’s best and brightest, huh? LMAO!!

Oh I didn't even know about that! LOL I had to Google it. I don't follow new music at all...since about 2000.

[Lynx_Arc]

The beauty of science is its continual renewal based on changing and verified observed facts.

Believe that if you want to, I believe truth and science can be ugly especially when a hard core scientist risks everything to find the truth and it turns the world from flat to round. We have way too many scientists unwilling to risk it all for the truth they would rather cave to peer pressure and keep their grants and jobs and "hope" that change to truth happens than be homeless and poor, to them a lie is easy to digest. Many are no better than politicians these days IMO.

[turbodog]

Believe that if you want to, I believe truth and science can be ugly especially when a hard core scientist risks everything to find the truth and it turns the world from flat to round. We have way too many scientists unwilling to risk it all for the truth they would rather cave to peer pressure and keep their grants and jobs and "hope" that change to truth happens than be homeless and poor, to them a lie is easy to digest. Many are no better than politicians these days IMO.

Truth is taught down the hall in the philosophy dept. Facts are what we are looking for. (shout out to Harrison Ford)

I think it's subtle... and some of this stuff is actually unknowable.

Example: mask usage

Pro:
even cloth masks filter to some degree, particularly on exhales from infected person
constant reminder to be careful, stay apart, wash hands

Con:
improper adjustment leads to a person touching their face when & where they should not
leads to false sense of security, entices risky actions

So... write an equation calculating probability of mask usage/non-usage helping/hurting for the 1) population as a whole 2) specific subgroups (elderly, healthcare, ignorant rednecks, etc). Now, communicate some VERY complex & predictive math to the nation as a whole, given the average person reads at about a 8th grade level.

Truth/fact does not necessarily equal the right thing to do. And even if you know what that is (very questionable) good luck achieving it.

[Lynx_Arc]

Truth is taught down the hall in the philosophy dept. Facts are what we are looking for. (shout out to Harrison Ford)

I think it's subtle... and some of this stuff is actually unknowable.

Example: mask usage

Pro:
even cloth masks filter to some degree, particularly on exhales from infected person
constant reminder to be careful, stay apart, wash hands

Con:
improper adjustment leads to a person touching their face when & where they should not
leads to false sense of security, entices risky actions

So... write an equation calculating probability of mask usage/non-usage helping/hurting for the 1) population as a whole 2) specific subgroups (elderly, healthcare, ignorant rednecks, etc). Now, communicate some VERY complex & predictive math to the nation as a whole, given the average person reads at about a 8th grade level.

Truth/fact does not necessarily equal the right thing to do. And even if you know what that is (very questionable) good luck achieving it.

If masks were only 10% effective and most people were misusing them and because of them people were not paying attention to distances around them often closer them 3 feet from you do you think they are worth using? That is what I constantly see now in stores going on.
Without facts or even a very very good educated guess we are lead to believe that they will keep us from being infected but if they are only 25 or 50% effective do you think the public needs to know and adjust the way they interact with the virus going around?
If they are 75% effective how many people can afford to risk a 25% chance of infection?
Like you said... it is IMO unknowable and mandating masks IMO is all but worthless to many who are getting infected out there wearing them. Most places I go everyone is wearing a mask yet we still have lots infected so apparently they aren't working that well.
We don't really have much in the way of science but rather people trying to figure out something that can be represented statistically regarding mask usage and my contention is either they are absolutely unable to even guess or the numbers aren't encouraging enough to reveal them to the public for fear people will freak out.
Science doesn't deal in opinions but facts... no facts then we aren't in the realm of "beauty" and "science" but political narratives and opinions often to profit people who can dial in on a way to make money over lockdowns and fear.

[idleprocess]

leads to false sense of security, entices risky actions

Moral hazard is a very real risk in these situations that can take monumental effort to correct if the wrong signals are sent early on.

So... write an equation calculating probability of mask usage/non-usage helping/hurting for the 1) population as a whole 2) specific subgroups (elderly, healthcare, ignorant rednecks, etc). Now, communicate some VERY complex & predictive math to the nation as a whole, given the average person reads at about a 8th grade level.

Also, do this when...

• The available information is incomplete, speculative, and/or contains errors
• The behavior of the general public in the face of a threat most is almost wholly unknown since most people alive have never experienced something like this
• Policymakers pressing you for a decision with huge error bars
• Knowing that the media is going to run with the juiciest hot take
• And despite steady refinement to the model week over week - as well as preventative measures kneecapping the initial upper bound - you're still going to be hounded for that initial figure by the peanut gallery >13 months later about how 'scientists got it wrong'

People freak the f___ out over Ebola which is a horrible disease but has killed less than 20,000 people since first being described in 1976. Meanwhile despite dire warnings, lockdowns, mask mandates, many suddenly washing their hands regularly for the first times in their lives, and numerous other oft-decried measures COVID-19 has killed 25 times as many people as Ebola in the span of a little more than a year in just the United States. Despite significant improvements in therapies for the sick and effective vaccines being developed in record time it's predicted to continue getting worse.

And even today with the vaccines there's grumbling about how long until someone is considered immune, rage that face masks aren't being eliminated, anger that gatherings are still being restricted or simply suggested to be restricted ... despite the vaccine being available in quantity for a mere ~3 months and an abundance of caution being the sensible course until it is better understood and the guidance can be adjusted based on more data.

[turbodog]

...
Like you said... it is IMO unknowable and mandating masks IMO is all but worthless to many who are getting infected out there wearing them. Most places I go everyone is wearing a mask yet we still have lots infected so apparently they aren't working that well.
...

With respect, I think you made my point for me. And you are assuming that just because some people are infected with usage then they don't work. What if they are working... and no masks would be way worse?

My point is that public health POLICY is just that, POLICY. You've got to make a mandate that overall works for society as a whole. Yes, people will fall through the gaps. But overall it's the best recommendation.

[turbodog]

I'll talk about PUBLIC health policy a little more... as something just hit me like a ton of bricks.

Earlier today, a CPF member sent me a PM about a drug that _could_ show great promise as a tool to fill in some gaps while we get people vaccinated. It's cheap, _probably_ highly effective, and with a good safety record.

So, no brainer, right?

Well... not so fast. It's also a known drug that, in a roundabout way, either prevents pregnancy or is not allowed for pregnant women. So, even better! Win-Win, right?

So what happens in ~6 years when we have a huge gap in schoolkids? What does this do to education? Don't need first grade teachers since there a very few new first graders. Then the gap moves down the line, and eventually we have a year with no college grads and no generation entering the workforce.

Stuff like this crashes entire economies. So the facts are that drug "X" solves a ton of covid problems, but will destroy your economy, in stages, over the next 22 years. These decisions, even when we try to be impartial, are complex to say the least.

[Lynx_Arc]

With respect, I think you made my point for me. And you are assuming that just because some people are infected with usage then they don't work. What if they are working... and no masks would be way worse?

My point is that public health POLICY is just that, POLICY. You've got to make a mandate that overall works for society as a whole. Yes, people will fall through the gaps. But overall it's the best recommendation.

The problem is without facts and solid statistics we don't really know if masks are working well enough to counteract the easing up on cautiousness concerning this virus of people who wear them. When nobody was wearing masks I would go to stores they would limit how many could come in the store and enforce distancing rules and had lines and arrows and stuff. With masks distancing is about halfway adhered to and stores have about twice the people in them now in some cases and people are crowding each other too. In other words masks are psychologically making people feel safer than I believe they are effective and that "feeling safe" bit is making people wreckless which IMO is actually having a negative affect on halting the spread of the virus as instead of staying 6 feet or more away, we see poor examples on even an AMAZON commercial on TV where two people who cannot understand themselves because of wearing masks are almost ear to ear both reading on the same smart phone... hey this is a low price... They aren't even a foot and a half apart because... masks.
I watched a volleyball game on live tv the other night women college game. Everyone was wearing masks and I noticed that about half the girls were moving the masks and scratching their face because it was irritating them and pulling them down to take a breath at times and then guess what? they were all hitting the same ball back and forth and rubbing their mask and face. If they had no masks on they would probably be LESS likely to be infected by the virus because the need to tough the mask and their face.. would be GONE.

[jtr1962]

The problem is without facts and solid statistics we don't really know if masks are working well enough to counteract the easing up on cautiousness concerning this virus of people who wear them. When nobody was wearing masks I would go to stores they would limit how many could come in the store and enforce distancing rules and had lines and arrows and stuff. With masks distancing is about halfway adhered to and stores have about twice the people in them now in some cases and people are crowding each other too. In other words masks are psychologically making people feel safer than I believe they are effective and that "feeling safe" bit is making people wreckless which IMO is actually having a negative affect on halting the spread of the virus as instead of staying 6 feet or more away, we see poor examples on even an AMAZON commercial on TV where two people who cannot understand themselves because of wearing masks are almost ear to ear both reading on the same smart phone... hey this is a low price... They aren't even a foot and a half apart because... masks.
I watched a volleyball game on live tv the other night women college game. Everyone was wearing masks and I noticed that about half the girls were moving the masks and scratching their face because it was irritating them and pulling them down to take a breath at times and then guess what? they were all hitting the same ball back and forth and rubbing their mask and face. If they had no masks on they would probably be LESS likely to be infected by the virus because the need to tough the mask and their face.. would be GONE.

And yet the countries which followed the science, as imperfect as it may be, did much better:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea

You're conflating measures which work when implemented properly with the failure of a large part of the population to either implement these measures correctly, or even at all. Your description of what's happening in stores is a perfect example. If you have a non-compliant and/or largely uneducated public (both are true in the US), there are only two real choices we had. One is to prevent the virus from reaching the US in large numbers. That boat sailed probably by January 2020, perhaps earlier. The other is to just shut down everything but non-essential services, and force people to shelter in place at home, perhaps delivering groceries regularly to enable this. Partial shutdowns can also work with success, as they did in NYC through the summer.

The biggest problem I see is we're too quick to try to get back to "normal" whenever the numbers drop. We have the summer wave in lots of the country. Measures to slow it were somewhat successful. The should have remained in place to reduce numbers further by the fall. Instead, we started opening things up too early. Then the holiday season compounded things. We should have shut down air travel, and severely restricted the highways to only essential traffic. We would have been in a great place now. As we started vaccinating people, maybe this month we could have slowly reopened things. By late summer things could have been almost back to normal. Instead, I'd say best case we might get back to normal by late fall if we don't have problems with variants. And we'll probably be looking at 600,000+ dead by then, versus well under 100,000 if we had done the things I mentioned.

[jtr1962]

So, no brainer, right?

Well... not so fast. It's also a known drug that, in a roundabout way, either prevents pregnancy or is not allowed for pregnant women. So, even better! Win-Win, right?

So what happens in ~6 years when we have a huge gap in schoolkids? What does this do to education? Don't need first grade teachers since there a very few new first graders. Then the gap moves down the line, and eventually we have a year with no college grads and no generation entering the workforce.

Stuff like this crashes entire economies. So the facts are that drug "X" solves a ton of covid problems, but will destroy your economy, in stages, over the next 22 years. These decisions, even when we try to be impartial, are complex to say the least.

Well, we're already facing this to a lesser degree:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...western-world/

In a century or two we might be facing the scenario from the movie Children of Men

Bad for us but in truth the planet would be far better off if we went extinct.

[turbodog]

The problem is without facts and solid statistics we don't really know if masks are working well enough ...

Think we can chalk this up to American exceptionalism. Didn't Taiwan, South Korea, and some other countries do extremely well in containing it?

But back to policy... you get to pick telling people a very simple set of recommendations. Can't leave it up to 'good judgement'. If everyone's judgement was that good we would not be in this trouble.

And for the record, I am against the premature decisions made by TX/MS governors. I don't know about TX, but MS is not a leader in healthcare that you want to follow.

[nbp]

@Lynx Arc

The fact that you still think “everyone is masking but cases still went up so masks don’t work” tells me you don’t actually go to any Of the places where the virus has been primarily spreading to see how people actually behave. Your anecdotal evidence is flawed at best. If your only sample is the grocery store or your workplace where things are constantly sanitized and 90+% of people are masked I could see why you might think that. That isn’t where people are getting sick. Why don’t you visit some bars, restaurants, gyms, churches, college campuses, holiday parties, and see how people actually operate. You might be surprised. And take into consideration that many places never had a mask mandate or let it expire. If you don’t want to wear a mask just be honest and say “hey I hate these masks and I am not interested in doing even the smallest thing that might help my neighbors be safe”. We all know that’s what it is anyways. But don’t come around with your junk science claiming everyone followed rules and they didn’t work when we know a huge number of people basically did nothing to follow the rules.

[idleprocess]

And for the record, I am against the premature decisions made by TX/MS governors. I don't know about TX, but MS is not a leader in healthcare that you want to follow.

Yeah, uhm, TX ain't so hot either. Highest percentage residents uninsured:

#50 Becker's Hospital Review
#50 America's Health Rankings
#50 US News

With regard to overall rankings, TX fares better per US News at 31 aggregate with Healthcare Access / Healthcare Quality / Public Health ratings of 45 / 39 / 18 respectively. The last is really surprising but local county public health agencies have been sleeper impressive in their mass vaccination site planning and execution, vaccinating thousands of people per day with excellent organization - a bright spot in the state's otherwise subpar response to the crisis.

[Lynx_Arc]

And yet the countries which followed the science, as imperfect as it may be, did much better:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea

You're conflating measures which work when implemented properly with the failure of a large part of the population to either implement these measures correctly, or even at all. Your description of what's happening in stores is a perfect example. If you have a non-compliant and/or largely uneducated public (both are true in the US), there are only two real choices we had. One is to prevent the virus from reaching the US in large numbers. That boat sailed probably by January 2020, perhaps earlier. The other is to just shut down everything but non-essential services, and force people to shelter in place at home, perhaps delivering groceries regularly to enable this. Partial shutdowns can also work with success, as they did in NYC through the summer.

The biggest problem I see is we're too quick to try to get back to "normal" whenever the numbers drop. We have the summer wave in lots of the country. Measures to slow it were somewhat successful. The should have remained in place to reduce numbers further by the fall. Instead, we started opening things up too early. Then the holiday season compounded things. We should have shut down air travel, and severely restricted the highways to only essential traffic. We would have been in a great place now. As we started vaccinating people, maybe this month we could have slowly reopened things. By late summer things could have been almost back to normal. Instead, I'd say best case we might get back to normal by late fall if we don't have problems with variants. And we'll probably be looking at 600,000+ dead by then, versus well under 100,000 if we had done the things I mentioned.

Ironic you talk about figures and have "bought in" to the idea that we aren't doing absolutely fantastic with this pandemic in fact we have greatly surpassed even blown away what the 1918 pandemic figures were. I estimated that at 500k deaths based upon the population percentage compared to 1918 our efforts would have lowered their 600k to 180k and their 600k then would be the same as about 2.1M now so we should think instead of saving 100k more think we are 1.5 million LESS than we should be and people are all freaking out over that extreme success?