Corona Virus... the second wave

[Katherine Alicia]

remaining positive about life (including kindness toward others), gratitude, and a good looking useful flashlight?
[/COLOR]

100% Agree!
I like to keep a Gratitude Journal, it`s a mostly just a long list of all the things I`m grateful for, often a single word or short sentence will get added when I have something to be grateful for. Once this becomes a habit You`de be surprised just how much there is to be grateful for and you`ll start noticing them more often too.

[Lynx_Arc]

Interesting to see the Worldometer graphs for India these days. Some experts are baffled why India is doing so well without the vaccine effect not having really kicked in yet.

Kitrobaskin Post #32 in the original COVID thread here at CPF:

Seems like historically, humanity (not some individuals) became stronger after exposure to pathogens. Most people infected apparently do not get especially sick. Has anyone mentioned eating healthy foods, remaining positive about life (including kindness toward others), gratitude, and a good looking useful flashlight?

A large dense population nearer to the hotbed of viruses etc in China likely has India passing around more bugs which in turn exercises their immune system. I read somewhere that having certain colds in the past make you more resistant to Covid 19 because they too are Corona Viruses. As I've heard the African American population is more at risk from covid than other races it doesn't surprise me that another race of people are less at risk from the virus. As for "experts" this virus has pretty much shown there are none regarding it other than creating a vaccine few have much of a clue how to predict the next outbreak and what preventative steps taken will affect it and how.

[KITROBASKIN]

May you live long and prosper, Katherine Alicia

Moderator Archimedes' post #344 (3/22/2020) in the original COVID thread:

I think it is fair to say that everyone is stressed at the moment.

Different personalities react to stress differently. Some joke, some downplay, some panic, some withdraw, some seek interaction or distraction.

Please keep in mind that moderation here on CPF is ~ 90% driven by other members' reports and complaints, not by mods themselves.

With several of my posts above, what seems like ages ago now (but really only a few days back) , I had asked for several in this thread to cool down the rhetoric. So no, no one here is being singled out.

Please try to keep these points in mind. Being friendly, helpful, open minded, and supportive of each other, is of immense value in a crisis. Both in our own little community, as well as out in the world at large.

Thank you all for attempting to be thoughtful and considerate at this time of crisis.

[turbodog]

...As for "experts" this virus has pretty much shown there are none regarding it other than creating a vaccine few have much of a clue how to predict the next outbreak and what preventative steps taken will affect it and how.

Except that this isn't quite accurate. Globally, people are actively researching animals considered likely to spawn the next pathogen. And we know how to mitigate spread... doing it is another matter. Don't think we really needed double blind confirmation that masks, hygiene, distancing, etc helped slow down an airborne pathogen.

[KITROBASKIN]

Can we take a moment to appreciate the managers and custodians of CPF?
May 15, 2020 Post #652 by Greta in the second coronavirus thread


Speaking of changing stripes and moderating these forums and get off my lawn!! -----

I was asked to join these forums 18 years ago to help out with moderating and overall upkeep. I was only 40 years old then! David W had his ways and I followed along and "learned" from him. Both of us came from a very conservative political forum. First rule of CPF - No political discussions! And we were pretty strict about that. Second Rule of CPF - Keep it family friendly to include: no flaming, baiting, or trolling, and no foul/offensive language. Over the years and once David W left the forums, I was determined to uphold the standards and integrity he established. But time goes on... and things change... and people change.

I have found that I'm not so rigid anymore... everything black or white. There really -ARE- grey areas! Go figure! And I think we have gotten to a point with our membership where the majority can act like adults. If something is a bit over the line, a gentle reminder or request to tone down is met with maturity and compliance. Easy peasy. And MUCH better than an iron fist. Was I wrong back in the day? No. I don't think I was. I think I sorted things the way they needed to be at the time and with the experience I had at the time.

So here I am now... 58 years old. And I've learned so much more! One of the most important things I've learned is that the moderators and administrators of this forum are human too. And they have thoughts and opinions. And they should not have to keep those to themselves. Of course, there is a fine line between expressing their opinions and using their position to impose their opinions. The group we have right now is absolutely amazing! We discuss in private what we should and shouldn't say or do as far as moderation. And as far as I'm concerned, no one throws their weight around as far as their "powers". Some interpret just the presence of a moderator in a thread as inserting and asserting authority. Don't. Unless their post is specifically addressing a moderating issue, they are just regular people just like the rest of us. And yes, that includes me too.

So as far as moderating the moderators - don't worry... I got it - and changing stripes? I've definitely done that! - And now? Get off my lawn!

[ledbetter]

Optimism on recent lower infection rates and deaths(half million total by end of the month)should be mitigated by variants and infections outpacing vaccinations, especially with 48 states having indoor dining and many school districts reopening without requiring vaccinations or even cohesive guidelines. Americans’ flippant attitude towards this disease, vaccinations, and science in general is astounding. Hopefully the new government’s efforts will not be for naught but when the states and general population just decide to ignore reality, there’s little that can be done. Most Americans would rather listen to and believe a carnival barker or a preacher or a spewer of hate on the radio than a scientist.

[KITROBASKIN]

...variants and infections outpacing vaccinations? Where is your data?
Further, your negative spew of 'most americans' is damaging to your credibility.
Death is a great equalizer, and deciding to spit on the grave is not becoming, regardless of the hate they propagated. We are all imperfect, don't you think?

[jtr1962]

...variants and infections outpacing vaccinations? Where is your data?
Further, your negative spew of 'most americans' is damaging to your credibility.
Death is a great equalizer, and deciding to spit on the grave is not becoming, regardless of the hate they propagated. We are all imperfect, don't you think?

Unfortunately, in a situation like this it doesn't even have to be "most" people ignoring guidelines. All it takes is a small minority to undo the hard work of everyone else trying to slow the spread. If 95% had worn masks consistently we would have been through the worst of this months ago. If 10% or 20% decide to ignore the advice of experts, well, here we are.

[ledbetter]

...”We are all imperfect, don't you think?

Well, obviously, some more than others.

[Greta]

ledbetter - drop the politics and confrontational rhetoric. This is your one and only warning. If I have to remove one more of your posts from ANY thread, you will be taking some time off from CPF.

[SCEMan]

Wouldn't this be nice.... Herd Immunity
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...3669731?page=1

[turbodog]

Wouldn't this be nice.... Herd Immunity
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...3669731?page=1

Read the article. I agree that recovered cases + immunized people will reach herd immunity and cases will plummet. But I don't think we are there yet.

New cases appear to be in free fall. But, deaths are NOT (yet). One of the top 10 highest 7 day average deaths (3,057) happened on 1-8-2021. Another happened on 2-13-2021 (2,967). ALL 10 occurrences are within Jan 8 to Feb 13, more or less evenly spread out over this time period.

Additionally, when calculating recent case mortality, the recent numbers are skyrocketing. So what? Did it just get much more deadly? I thought we 'burned through' the most vulnerable a year ago. These numbers should be dropping. So, to me, all data seems to point to new cases being seriously under reported.

We ARE off the holiday peak, but not into herd immunity yet. A few more weeks should tell a better story.

When new cases (which could be influenced by testing) drop along with deaths (which are more impartial to testing), THEN we can applaud. But at NO time during any of this can we let our guard down, and the sooner we are all vaccinated the fewer chances we have for further mutations.

[jtr1962]

Keep in mind immunity from getting it is a lot shorter lived than immunity from vaccinations. And some people can still get one of the new strains even after having gotten it once. My takeaway from the article is that if we possibly reach herd immunity by April in part due to people who already had it, it will buy us time to vaccinate everyone before the natural immunity wears off. We still need to vaccinate everyone, whether they had it or not. And we may need booster shots next year to deal with new strains.

[turbodog]

... My takeaway from the article is that if we possibly reach herd immunity by April in part due to people who already had it, it will buy us time to vaccinate everyone before the natural immunity wears off. ...

"Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies."

[Poppy]

Just a few weeks ago, maybe four, there was very little "covid variant sequential testing" done in the US. So we didn't know to what extent the variants were taking hold in the US. NY's Governor Cuomo, ordered a number of hospitals to start doing sequence testing. The News has not been reporting on their results. I think they are only sequencing 1%, but perhaps they have ramped that up.

At any rate, yesterday and again today the News has been reporting that there is a "Home Grown" variant, both in NY, and in California. Also, one reporter stated that 25% of the new cases were of the home grown variant. So the questions are how long has THIS variant been around? Is it spreading rapidly? More infectious? Resistant to vaccinations?

Today, more has been said of the need for caution, that the decline in cases, and hospitalizations appears to have stalled. It's possibly due to the new variants, and we may be on the verge of another surge.

Warnings are continued, to not let down your guard, stay safe, wear masks, maintain distance, get vaccinated when you can.

In the meantime, Moderna is working on a variant specific booster.

[SCEMan]

At any rate, yesterday and again today the News has been reporting that there is a "Home Grown" variant, both in NY, and in California. Also, one reporter stated that 25% of the new cases were of the home grown variant. So the questions are how long has THIS variant been around? Is it spreading rapidly? More infectious? Resistant to vaccinations?

A local radio station was discussing the CA variant and it appears it's been out since October 2020.

[nbp]

I saw there are seven variants from the USA.

[bykfixer]

"Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies."

Research from cadivers shows there were 4 known variants to the 1918 flu that is actually thought to have begun in the 500's and bounced around planet earth for hundreds of years and settling into a nice pattern of bad behavior in 1890. The thinking is that older folks in 1916-1920 survived the original 1916 version because they had antibodies from the 1890 version. But……by 1920 three mutations had seemingly taken place and even older folks succumbed to the "Spanish flu" by then.
I worked at a place where a cemetery on our project was said to be a Spanish flu cemetery. People buried in that one were from the 1918 version, the 1930's version and the 1950's version. I had a variant of it in the 1990's. All of my older comrads who had not had the flu since the 1960's were dropping like flies with high fever and many developed pnuemonia from it. At that time my system was vulnerable due to a high stress work load and it put me down for nearly a month. My doctor said he'd never seen a flu that bad that year. Studies later indicated it was indeed another version of the Spanish flu.

This new virus will be around from now on. Does that mean we have to wear masks forever now? Well mankind has made it this far without a shot for the Spanish flu, which was much more lethal than this one.

[wacbzz]

This new virus will be around from now on. Does that mean we have to wear masks forever now? Well mankind has made it this far without a shot for the Spanish flu, which was much more lethal than this one.

There is zero debate as to why the 1918 flu was more “lethal” numbers wise than COVID 19. Such a comparison of mortality without a real examination of the underlying causation(s) is merely playing on the “fog” of the masses.

[bykfixer]

Huh? I don't follow...Are you debating that there is zero debate?

[turbodog]

Huh? I don't follow...Are you debating that there is zero debate?

I think he's saying deaths were high due to lack of 1) effective and 2) available treatment.

[Poppy]

last week I got my second Moderna shot.

The gal must have used a thin needle, because if I didn't see her depress the plunger out of the corner of my eye, I wouldn't have known she gave it to me. No pain at all!

The following day, though, I was tired all day, and spent a good part of it in bed sleeping. I also felt like I had a really low grade fever, and walked around the house in a sweat shirt, while everyone else wore short sleeve T shirts.

The day after that.... everything was fine. Not even a sore arm.

[PhotonWrangler]

I've read today about the "Moderna arm" rash. Apparently it's nothing serious but unique to this vaccine. I got my first shot of the Pfizer vaccine today. No symptoms yet other than a very slight soreness in my arm. It was apparently a fine gauge needle - I barely felt anything.

[bykfixer]

A guy on the radio said he was concerned about Texas opening up completely because it may cause a 4th wave.
Was there a 3rd wave?

[PhotonWrangler]

A guy on the radio said he was concerned about Texas opening up completely because it may cause a 4th wave.
Was there a 3rd wave?

I thought we were still in the second wave, the one that started to spike in the fall and is finally dropping back to last summer's levels.

[turbodog]

A guy on the radio said he was concerned about Texas opening up completely because it may cause a 4th wave.
Was there a 3rd wave?

I show summer (1), thanksgiving (2), and christmas/new years (3). 2 & 3 were pretty close, but there was a distinct dip between them for about 10 days.

[idleprocess]

A guy on the radio said he was concerned about Texas opening up completely because it may cause a 4th wave.
Was there a 3rd wave?

Locally for me (Denton County TX), it appears that it's just the second wave that has crested:


Absolute peak was just shy of 16,000 cases January 29; present caseload is just shy of 12,000 cases. There were ~500 active cases when the lockdown started in March, ~700 when the lockdowns ended in June, and the summer peak was ~3,100 cases August 1.

I'm hoping that the trend continues downward despite the decision to 'reopen' TX and ending the statewide face mask mandate. My informal survey suggests that area restaurants, bars, hair salons, and other establishments heavily dependent upon customers showing up in-person were hardly suffering due to capacity restrictions. A number of retailers aren't going to change their policies on face masks, but some doubtlessly will.

In the meantime I've got a half-face respirator, some extra P100 filters, and managed to scam an appointment for the first dose of vaccine next week.

[bykfixer]

I think a lot will proceed with caution until the gubment gives the all clear signal, some never have proceeded with caution and most will be somewhere in between. Partly out of habit and partly until they have had the shot.

Warmer weather on the east coast should bring about more outdoor gatherings so as a result a reduction in cases, just like a year ago. But, like the 1918 flu this will be likely be around for a while longer.

I await the day when the world says "phew, that one sucked"……

[markr6]

You can get a vaccine in NC if you've smoked 100+ cigarettes in your life. I never counted but at the age of 40 (in 2 weeks) I know I'm still under a pack/life.

Teachers are now finally eligible here in IN. Took a while and people were upset about that. But really, everyone wanted on the list. Hey, it's USA, we like to think we're all special.

[bykfixer]

Teachers should certainly be a priority. But like you said Markr, many of us want to be in the front of the line.
My state has begun 1B where essential workers are part of the line now. Retail like grocery store workers, teachers, the UPS driver and like that there. I don't think it matters how many cigarettes you have ever smoked though. It seems to me there was an age thing tossed in at some point. Perhaps it was part of 1B. But it also seems 1C is available in some areas of my state. To date about 10% of our population has both doses.