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Thread: Corona Virus... the second wave

  1. #811
    *Flashaholic* idleprocess's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus... the second wave

    Quote Originally Posted by Lynx_Arc View Post
    Ironic you talk about figures and have "bought in" to the idea that we aren't doing absolutely fantastic with this pandemic in fact we have greatly surpassed even blown away what the 1918 pandemic figures were. I estimated that at 500k deaths based upon the population percentage compared to 1918 our efforts would have lowered their 600k to 180k and their 600k then would be the same as about 2.1M now so we should think instead of saving 100k more think we are 1.5 million LESS than we should be and people are all freaking out over that extreme success?
    Bad analogy - the needle has moved considerably over the last century. Take life expectancy - 53.22 in 1920, 78.81 in 2020 or twenty-five more years. Or look at the common causes of death in 1920 vs 2010 - numerous common causes of death in 1920 have either vanished or have greatly reduced (cardiovascular disease and cancer are notable exceptions; the former due to increasingly sedentary lifestyles and "modern diets", the latter likely due to better diagnoses and longer lifespans).

    The comparison to South Korea - another advanced economy - is quite apt and the stark differences in responses correlate very strongly to the huge divergence in outcomes. Per Worldmeters.info :
    • United States : 29M cases | 540k deaths | 89k cases / million | 1627 deaths / million
    • South Korea : 93k cases| 1648 deaths | 1827 cases / million | 32 deaths / million

    We're doing things very wrong relative to South Korea.
    I apologize that this letter is so long; I did not have time to write a short letter

  2. #812
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    Default Re: Corona Virus... the second wave

    Quote Originally Posted by Lynx_Arc View Post
    Ironic you talk about figures and have "bought in" to the idea that we aren't doing absolutely fantastic with this pandemic in fact we have greatly surpassed even blown away what the 1918 pandemic figures were. I estimated that at 500k deaths based upon the population percentage compared to 1918 our efforts would have lowered their 600k to 180k and their 600k then would be the same as about 2.1M now so we should think instead of saving 100k more think we are 1.5 million LESS than we should be and people are all freaking out over that extreme success?
    Back in 1918 we didn't have the tools we have now. We didn't have effective treatments, and we didn't develop a vaccine at all, much less within a year after the virus surfaced. The best comparison of how the US did isn't to compare us to how we did in 1918. It's to compare us to how other countries did now. The death rate per million people in the US is now at 1633. Japan is at 66, Australia is at 35, South Korea is at 32, New Zealand is at 5. Taiwan and Vietnam are at 0.4! If the US had that death rate only a little over 100 people would have died. Or if you want to compare us with a country on the same continent, Canada is at 587. The US is number 12 in death rate out of over 200 countries. Not something to be proud of, and certainly not "absolutely fantastic" as you say. The one great thing we helped do was to quickly get vaccines. If only we had taken measures before then to slow the spread. Also, I totally don't understand stuff like what's happening in Texas and Mississippi. Now with vaccines, the end is in sight. All we have to do is hunker down a few more months. So why risk more spread and the possibility of more variants by opening things up now, never mind getting rid of mask mandates which is something I was flabbergasted by? Masks are the one thing which allows you to keep more things open.
    Last edited by jtr1962; 03-09-2021 at 11:53 PM.

  3. #813

    Default Re: Corona Virus... the second wave

    Quote Originally Posted by idleprocess View Post

    The comparison to South Korea - another advanced economy - is quite apt and the stark differences in responses correlate very strongly to the huge divergence in outcomes. Per Worldmeters.info :
    • United States : 29M cases | 540k deaths | 89k cases / million | 1627 deaths / million
    • South Korea : 93k cases| 1648 deaths | 1827 cases / million | 32 deaths / million

    We're doing things very wrong relative to South Korea.
    Lots going on here though. It's a small country, a peninsula surrounded by water and North Korea. Even if their population density was 100x higher than the US, the differences in infrastructure, healthy system and previous experience with SARS and MERS make it an apples and hammers comparison. That last point is key and likely the main reason why everyone took it seriously...and may have even had masks stashed in their residences prepared for the next one. And I'm not sure how their country is organized, but I'm sure it's not 50 separate areas doing whatever they feel like.
    GOOD TINT!

  4. #814
    *Flashaholic* idleprocess's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus... the second wave

    Quote Originally Posted by markr6 View Post
    Lots going on here though. It's a small country, a peninsula surrounded by water and North Korea. Even if their population density was 100x higher than the US, the differences in infrastructure, healthy system and previous experience with SARS and MERS make it an apples and hammers comparison. That last point is key and likely the main reason why everyone took it seriously...and may have even had masks stashed in their residences prepared for the next one. And I'm not sure how their country is organized, but I'm sure it's not 50 separate areas doing whatever they feel like.
    Ah, but with that density (something like >50% of the population living in the Seoul metro area) comes NYC-like conditions yet they managed it like a champ. And despite the geographical and structural differences, we're still doing things wrong.

    But hey, how about our neighbor to the north that's more similar?
    • Canada : 893k cases | 22k deaths | 53k cases / million | 587 deaths / million

    60% of the per-capita caseload, 36% of the mortality relative to the US.
    I apologize that this letter is so long; I did not have time to write a short letter

  5. #815

    Default Re: Corona Virus... the second wave

    Quote Originally Posted by idleprocess View Post
    NYC-like conditions yet they managed it like a champ.
    I would expect that for the reasons I listed above. Hopefully everyone can learn from this...but I doubt it.
    GOOD TINT!

  6. #816
    *Flashaholic* turbodog's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus... the second wave

    Quote Originally Posted by markr6 View Post
    ...And I'm not sure how their country is organized, but I'm sure it's not 50 separate areas doing whatever they feel like.
    I've said this before, but it bears repeating. People forget that the USA is literally United STATES of America. 50 states with their own governors, health depts, etc. Heck... and the US is so large that we span several time zones and climates. These are additional challenges that many countries don't face.

    That said... given our money and possibilities... we should had led the world in response to this threat. I give us a "D" at best in regards to preparation, prevention, communication, etc. I give healthcare an "A+" for dedication to try and keep us from killing ourselves.
    Last edited by turbodog; 03-10-2021 at 10:04 AM.
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  7. #817

    Default Re: Corona Virus... the second wave

    I wonder how many other countries politicize everything...EVERYTHING...as much as we do.
    GOOD TINT!

  8. #818
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    Default Re: Corona Virus... the second wave

    I'm not sure, markr6. What I am sure of though is that things here in this thread have been drifting in that direction again. I understand as well as anyone it's a hot button topic and everyone has opinions and thoughts as to the political aspect of the virus. And I understand for some these threads are a place to vent or make their opinion known with relative annonymity and safety, no blowback or reprisal in real life. I implore you all to stop so there's a place here on CPF to discuss the myriad of other facets of the pandemic without bringing politics back in and having the entire topic be shut down hard. Please use "Downstairs" or hold your peace...
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