Future of LED Technology- Turboheads?

The recent excitement caused by Luxeon LED technology has really caused a stir in the flashlight community here. Notforwithstanding the performace issue with fog/smoke, do LED's need to be fitted with Turboheads to increase throw to compete with the Surefire Turbo head models? Will this new LED technology replace incandescent flashlights as we know them? Flashlights have been the same for a long time. Is flashlight technology going to start becoming soon obsolete every year like computer equipment. (im sure surefire wouldnt be too upset over this) What are your opinions?

It doesn't look like LEDs are going to blitz the field for a while yet. Just look at HID! However, for the price, the 3W luxs are really going strong, and if the R&D keeps up, then some good modding times are ahead.

I think LED is so popular right now mainly because of the pure white light (or any other colour I suppose), and the good run times some lights are getting, but not entirely for the output.

I think LEDs are hitting big in flashlights because of their longevity, mechanical ruggedness, and high efficiency at low voltages. The white output doesn't hurt either.

With the advent of high-power LEDs, there is finally an alternative to high-performancce $20 xenon bulbs with 20 hour lifespans...

I dunno, with 25 lm/w now, 60 or so developed, and 100 not out of the question, those 5W luxeons we have now will be as bright as 20W (or more) xenons, while still using the same 5W of power.

I don't think it'll be like computers. 4x the processor power can make for qualitative differences in what you can do. The flashlights will be brighter, or longer lasting. As a soldier, yeah, I'd want my equipment to keep pace, but for those whose lives don't depend on our flashlights, I don't think it'll force a total flashlight-inventory change every 3-5 years the way computers tend to.

"...do LED's need to be fitted with Turboheads to increase throw to compete with the Surefire Turbo head models? "

I think we are some way off from competing with the SF Turbohead incans. You can focus a LED down to a very tight spot indeed, especially the single die luxeons, but there comes a point where it becomes a pointless excercise due to the LEDs limited output. Even with the brightest Luxeon you can currently get your hands on, by the time the hotspot becomes large enough to cover a useful area, there simply isnt enough photons to adequately illuminate the target.
So while it *is* possible to make a LED, any LED, throw like an incan, its usefulness is dubious until we see some higher efficiency/flux parts. Surefire's own KL6 is IMHO the best, useable beam pattern for the currently available LEDs.

Slightly off-topic, i wonder if there's a sweet-spot for the Luminous output/Beam divergance ratio.