The mass is only important for time to steady-state... cooler steady state is directly proportional to the surface area (and airflow)... probably the best if not the only way to find out the answer is a prototype.
My megalight has just about 25 sq. inches of surface area =-O but it only gets to a steady-state of about 115 deg or so running 3 emitters at 3W... and it's 'internal'... for convection to work well the fins have to be vertical... is this light going to be the basic shape of a flashlight? emitter out the end of the cylinder? if the light will be used horizontally then i could see using this method... but i'd be aiming for close to 12 sq inches or more based on my 9W and 25 inches being 'just about perfect'.
The outside of a cylinder the size of a C battery is just bout 8 sq. inches... without grooves..
if you cut 1/16th grooves (admittedly a little thin).. 1/8th deep... you end up with .7091 sq. inches per set (high n low.. 1/8inch)... so.. 12 sq inches would be 17 1/8ths or 2 1/8th inch... where a C batt is 2.42 inches...
You could increase the amt of convection by having a non-radial symmetry using slots left n right rather than having radial grooves.. think of ribs n a backbone.
I think you are just about 'in the zone' with your size guess... it'll get quite warm but not too hot to handle would be my prediction..
The heatsink of
Megasonic gets what would not be fun to hold steady-state but it's never hot enough to hurt.
Good luck let's see some pictures.
-awr
speaking of pictures: here are visuals of 2 different 12 sq. in. heatsinks