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Risks and Protection in Washington, D.C.
By Fred Burton
Stratfor, along with many U.S. government sources, has predicted al Qaeda
will attempt an attack within the United States before the presidential
election in November. In our view, the most likely methods of attack would
involve a dirty bomb, chemical attack or Madrid-style train bombing.
For many reasons, Washington remains in al Qaeda's crosshairs: It is filled
with symbolic monuments that are soft targets. Though a strike against the
Washington Monument, for example, would be unlikely to produce sufficiently
high casualty counts for al Qaeda's purposes, rendering the National Mall
radioactive with a dirty bomb would be considered a triumph.
SCENARIO PLANNING
Protecting important sites remains difficult, even three years after the
Sept. 11 attacks. Consider the reaction when the Kentucky governor's plane
flew into restricted airspace near the Capitol during preparations for
President Ronald Reagan's funeral: Hundreds of congressmen were told to run
for their lives from the building. Though pundits later dismissed the
incident as an innocuous event, we are not convinced that officials would
have been able to stop the plane if it had been manned by suicide attackers.
On the ground, there also are difficulties. Police and federal agents in the
capital operate under peacetime, Constitution-sensitive rules of engagement.
Given the limitations placed on racial profiling, authorities cannot stop and
search a Middle Eastern male who is carrying a backpack merely on a hunch. In
light of these political realities and some of al Qaeda's known past plots,
it is easy to envision attacks against the persons or motorcades of
high-level government officials -- either American leaders or visiting
foreign dignitaries. The recent strikes against expatriate compounds in Saudi
Arabia -- involving multiple assault vehicles, overwhelming firepower and
vehicle bombs -- give some indication of militants' capabilities in this
area.
That said, perhaps the most sensitive strike zone within the city -- and one
involving the greatest number of potential casualties -- is the Metro subway
system. U.S. counterterrorism sources do not disagree with this view, and in
many ways such a strike is a worst-case scenario.
A Madrid-style train attack is one of the most probable soft-target scenarios
for the D.C. area. Al Qaeda could carry out an operation involving the subway
system or an Amtrak train at Union Station with relative ease. In fact, given
the daily traffic levels through the subway and the difficulties of enforcing
strict physical security, it is virtually impossible -- logistically or
economically -- to defend against certain types of attack.
Releasing a sarin gas dispersant or an improvised explosive device disguised
within a satchel or backpack -- strategically placed in subway or passenger
rail cars -- would create a horror scene, especially if the attack occurred
underground during rush hour. The fumes and fire would kill scores of people
-- as could the subway third rail system, the dangers of which probably would
be forgotten amid the mayhem.
Protective Security Plans
Though federal and local officials cannot completely safeguard the public,
there are steps Washington residents can take to protect themselves and their
families in the event of an attack.
Observation and Readiness: This point cannot be emphasized enough. Ensure you
are aware of your surroundings, have an escape plan in mind and take basic
precautions. For example, consider buying a smoke hood: They are inexpensive,
can be carried in a briefcase and can be quickly deployed. Some models also
can be carried aboard an aircraft. The hoods can be used in the event of a
fire or attack -- whether in a subway, hotel or office building.
Also, carry a portable flashlight, small enough to fit into a pocket or
briefcase. If a strike occurs, lights and power will go down, creating panic.
Communications planning: One of al Qaeda's modus operandi is multiple attacks
in various cities. If an attack takes place, the federal government will take
cell phone towers offline to cut communications between militant cells that
might be planning attacks in other cities. As a result, you might not be able
to communicate with your friends, colleagues or family.
Think ahead. Coordinate with your family to plan an escape route and a
meeting place away from the Beltway. Designate a relative to be a
communications hub, and call that relative to check in when you can establish
a phone line.
Physical needs: Prepare a small "fly-way" kit containing clothes, water,
nutritional bars, medicine and toiletry items for your family. Keep it in the
car, and plan to depart the city immediately in the event of an attack. Do
not wait to communicate with others; you will not be able to.
Additionally, keep a full tank of gas at all times, and decide in advance
what to do about family pets -- whether to keep them at home or take them
with you.
Practice: Those who live and work in Washington should make contingency plans
and run through a tabletop exercise. Make it a family event, and practice.
This is vital: In the event of a crisis, local, state and federal authorities
will be too busy dealing with events to assist you. Create a plan and
execute.
(c) 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.
http://www.stratfor.com
Risks and Protection in Washington, D.C.
By Fred Burton
Stratfor, along with many U.S. government sources, has predicted al Qaeda
will attempt an attack within the United States before the presidential
election in November. In our view, the most likely methods of attack would
involve a dirty bomb, chemical attack or Madrid-style train bombing.
For many reasons, Washington remains in al Qaeda's crosshairs: It is filled
with symbolic monuments that are soft targets. Though a strike against the
Washington Monument, for example, would be unlikely to produce sufficiently
high casualty counts for al Qaeda's purposes, rendering the National Mall
radioactive with a dirty bomb would be considered a triumph.
SCENARIO PLANNING
Protecting important sites remains difficult, even three years after the
Sept. 11 attacks. Consider the reaction when the Kentucky governor's plane
flew into restricted airspace near the Capitol during preparations for
President Ronald Reagan's funeral: Hundreds of congressmen were told to run
for their lives from the building. Though pundits later dismissed the
incident as an innocuous event, we are not convinced that officials would
have been able to stop the plane if it had been manned by suicide attackers.
On the ground, there also are difficulties. Police and federal agents in the
capital operate under peacetime, Constitution-sensitive rules of engagement.
Given the limitations placed on racial profiling, authorities cannot stop and
search a Middle Eastern male who is carrying a backpack merely on a hunch. In
light of these political realities and some of al Qaeda's known past plots,
it is easy to envision attacks against the persons or motorcades of
high-level government officials -- either American leaders or visiting
foreign dignitaries. The recent strikes against expatriate compounds in Saudi
Arabia -- involving multiple assault vehicles, overwhelming firepower and
vehicle bombs -- give some indication of militants' capabilities in this
area.
That said, perhaps the most sensitive strike zone within the city -- and one
involving the greatest number of potential casualties -- is the Metro subway
system. U.S. counterterrorism sources do not disagree with this view, and in
many ways such a strike is a worst-case scenario.
A Madrid-style train attack is one of the most probable soft-target scenarios
for the D.C. area. Al Qaeda could carry out an operation involving the subway
system or an Amtrak train at Union Station with relative ease. In fact, given
the daily traffic levels through the subway and the difficulties of enforcing
strict physical security, it is virtually impossible -- logistically or
economically -- to defend against certain types of attack.
Releasing a sarin gas dispersant or an improvised explosive device disguised
within a satchel or backpack -- strategically placed in subway or passenger
rail cars -- would create a horror scene, especially if the attack occurred
underground during rush hour. The fumes and fire would kill scores of people
-- as could the subway third rail system, the dangers of which probably would
be forgotten amid the mayhem.
Protective Security Plans
Though federal and local officials cannot completely safeguard the public,
there are steps Washington residents can take to protect themselves and their
families in the event of an attack.
Observation and Readiness: This point cannot be emphasized enough. Ensure you
are aware of your surroundings, have an escape plan in mind and take basic
precautions. For example, consider buying a smoke hood: They are inexpensive,
can be carried in a briefcase and can be quickly deployed. Some models also
can be carried aboard an aircraft. The hoods can be used in the event of a
fire or attack -- whether in a subway, hotel or office building.
Also, carry a portable flashlight, small enough to fit into a pocket or
briefcase. If a strike occurs, lights and power will go down, creating panic.
Communications planning: One of al Qaeda's modus operandi is multiple attacks
in various cities. If an attack takes place, the federal government will take
cell phone towers offline to cut communications between militant cells that
might be planning attacks in other cities. As a result, you might not be able
to communicate with your friends, colleagues or family.
Think ahead. Coordinate with your family to plan an escape route and a
meeting place away from the Beltway. Designate a relative to be a
communications hub, and call that relative to check in when you can establish
a phone line.
Physical needs: Prepare a small "fly-way" kit containing clothes, water,
nutritional bars, medicine and toiletry items for your family. Keep it in the
car, and plan to depart the city immediately in the event of an attack. Do
not wait to communicate with others; you will not be able to.
Additionally, keep a full tank of gas at all times, and decide in advance
what to do about family pets -- whether to keep them at home or take them
with you.
Practice: Those who live and work in Washington should make contingency plans
and run through a tabletop exercise. Make it a family event, and practice.
This is vital: In the event of a crisis, local, state and federal authorities
will be too busy dealing with events to assist you. Create a plan and
execute.
(c) 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.
http://www.stratfor.com
