Russia school attack

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chmsam

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I would not want to be these a**holes or any of their kith or kin. The Russians do love their children so. Payback will be very, very, very nasty. And I don't think anyone will bother to hinder them in any way, shape, or form. The Russians are also very grateful for any aid given in circumstances such as these and they have a looooooonnnngg memory for both bad deeds and good. That combination makes for bad mojo for these fools.

Ain't nobodys' god gonna smile down on these skinwalkers.
 

Lebkuecher

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This could get very nasty very fast. They had no problem downing two airliners so I wouldn't think they would have a problem lining up 50 kids and mowing them down just to make a point.
 

Sub_Umbra

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[ QUOTE ]
PlayboyJoeShmoe said:
I'd like to be a fly on the wall when the SHTF...

It should be interesting.

Terrorist SCUM!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

A fly on the wall...could get gassed.

The Russians are really in a bind here and they have a completely different mindset in dealing with things like this. They have no highly specialized teams for hostage rescue like some countries do, which is part of the reason events like these rarely end well in Russia.

In any single hostage situation the Russians will only tolerate just so much. Once they reach that point they will make a decision and ACT -- with whatever they have -- whatever the danger. I'd guess that the government will study the situation and gather their resources over the next day or so. Then look out. I don't think that they'll wait as long as they did in the theatre incident. Just my guess.
 

JOshooter

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Does anyone know what the situation is like now? I've heard about it, but haven't been updated.
 

JonSidneyB

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I think hostage rescue could be done better by a number of countries rather the Russians. If I were them I would call in outside help but I doubt that will happen.

I just hope that all the young ones can be retrieved successfully.
 

ZDP189

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[ QUOTE ]
PlayboyJoeShmoe said:
I'd like to be a fly on the wall when the SHTF...

It should be interesting.

Terrorist SCUM!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I expect when the SHTF you'll lose 20% of the hostages at the very least. There are too many terrorists and way too many hostages to cleanly take out the targets without serious collateral damage.

I recall a previous Chechen hostage situation where the Russians gassed the terrorists with knock-out gas. It had to be potent, fast acting stuff or the tarrorists would have let rip. Consequently, a fair few hostages were seriously injured or killed by the mil-spec gas.

This time, the terrorists have learned and they no doubt have a wired the charges to explode in the absence of intervention - i.e. gas or kill them and everybody dies.

It's really a no-lose situation for the terrorists who have signed on for this suicide mission with their eyes open.

If the government gives in to whatever demands have been made, it will only encourage further hostage taking. If they do not, the terrorists will have accomplished their secondary objective: to bring the fight to the invaders' home soil and undermine the will of the common people to continue the occupation.

The authorities have a hard decision to make. They give in to demands and slide further down the slippery slope towards again withdrawing from Chechenya or grit their teeth and bear the losses.

One thing's for sure: The day of the conventional war where one side can be beaten is long over. Russia (like all other nations) cannot cleanly win a war based on military might against people willing to die for their cause (right or wrong).

Like cavalry officers charging entrenched machinegunners in WWI, or a generation of kids sent to die in VN, military commanders and governments of the modern age must recognise that the rules of warfare have changed.

My prayers go out for the children; God deliver you or accept you into His kingdom. My prayers go out to the terrorists; Show mercy, your point has been made. My prayers go out to the Russians; Aim well.
 

James S

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[ QUOTE ]
I recall a previous Chechen hostage situation where the Russians gassed the terrorists with knock-out gas. It had to be potent, fast acting stuff or the tarrorists would have let rip. Consequently, a fair few hostages were seriously injured or killed by the mil-spec gas.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem was that they used a very potent drug and then failed to tell the doctors at the hospital where the people were taken what it was because of either poor situation management or because it was top secret. I can't remember which turned out to be the case now as it was a while ago. But if they had been setup to administer an antidote or even had any medical folks ready as they brought them out of the building far fewer would have died. Problem is that you need something so powerful that it knocks you out before you realize you're getting sleepy or you hit the switch. Very nasty stuff and a lot of it. Hard to control the dose that an individual would get that way and so many were killed by it.

[ QUOTE ]
they no doubt have a wired the charges to explode in the absence of intervention

[/ QUOTE ]

Some kind of dead man switch huh. Yes, that could very well be, but these folks are known more for their determination than for their technology. At this moment it looks like the Russians are holding off on any serious action. I thought for a moment this morning that they were going in since there were reports of some explosions, but turns out it's just the terrorists blowing up a car out front to keep reminding people that they can blow stuff up.

[ QUOTE ]
The day of the conventional war where one side can be beaten is long over

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure exactly about that. Depends on what you're trying to do with your military might. I'm not actually familiar with the reasoning that Russia is using in staying in Chechnia, I don't know what they hope to accomplish there or why it's important to them.

The only way to beat terrorists is to remove their popular support. In order to do that you sometimes have to topple governments and pretend to be altruistic and give the people there a life where they can hope for something better than just cheering on those killing themselves in this way. Like whats happening in Iraq /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif The popular support for those wacky warlords is dropping off as people get their lives back together and their children go back to school and they start to have a life again. And as the populace stops supporting them, they give up.

I don't really think any of that necessarily applies to the Checnen situation. I suppose I'll have to read up to try to understand why Russia wants so badly to keep a military hold on them.
 

BC0311

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Pipelines from and Caspian Sea oil and gas fields are extremely important to Russia as well as Europe.

You are absolutely correct, James, about terrorist's need for a majority of popular support. The Chechen terrorists don't have it. The election was a big rejection from the Chechnya population.

This reminds me of the FMLN in El Salvador in the 80s.
 

lightemup

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Just to clarify: Sub Umbra, Russia does have a credible CT capability, up there with other, more popularly referred to CT groups and organisations from around the world. It is just that they don't seem to be as widely discussed as the others, especially outside of Eurasia /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/sssh.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif

The structure of their organisation is not dissimilar to the CT efforts of most countries, including the US, Britain, and Australia /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif.
 

Sub_Umbra

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[ QUOTE ]
lightemup said:
Just to clarify: Sub Umbra, Russia does have a credible CT capability, up there with other, more popularly referred to CT groups and organisations from around the world. It is just that they don't seem to be as widely discussed as the others, especially outside of Eurasia /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/sssh.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif

The structure of their organisation is not dissimilar to the CT efforts of most countries, including the US, Britain, and Australia /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

That may be so, but in any event their list of unsuccessful hostage rescues dwarfs their successful ones. By successful I mean missions carried out with hostage casualties at a fairly low rate -- comparable to the averages of other country's CT units.

It could be said that 70+ years of placing the well being of the State over the individual continues to take it's toll on Russian culture. In general, terrorist/hostage situations in Russia are resolved in such a way that the State obliterates ITS enemies, and the individual hostages fate is nearly always secondary to that end.

There is no doubt that Russia's CT forces are effective. To my knowledge they are 100% successful in suppressing terrorists with hostages. It's just the hostages that don't do very well. If they are trying to hide their success stories in freeing hostages they're doing a very good job of keeping it quiet.

[ QUOTE ]
James S said:
[ QUOTE ]
I recall a previous Chechen hostage situation where the Russians gassed the terrorists with knock-out gas. It had to be potent, fast acting stuff or the terrorists would have let rip. Consequently, a fair few hostages were seriously injured or killed by the mil-spec gas.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem was that they used a very potent drug and then failed to tell the doctors at the hospital where the people were taken what it was because of either poor situation management or because it was top secret. I can't remember which turned out to be the case now as it was a while ago. But if they had been setup to administer an antidote or even had any medical folks ready as they brought them out of the building far fewer would have died. Problem is that you need something so powerful that it knocks you out before you realize you're getting sleepy or you hit the switch. Very nasty stuff and a lot of it. Hard to control the dose that an individual would get that way and so many were killed by it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite right. Another mitigating factor in the gassing deaths is that they waited far to long to act. Many of the hostages were young, old and somewhat infirm to begin with. Adding to all of that, by the time the decision to use the gas was finally made, they were also severely dehydrated.

The Russians won't likely make that mistake again. That's why I predicted action within a day or so in my first post. If they want to use the gas option they must decide to use it while the captives are still in relatively good shape. If we don't see the State use gas very soon, I think that option will be off the table for the duration of this incident.

If the State is indecisive and still goes ahead and uses the gas days from now, that will be another indication of the comparitive lack of value placed in the life of the individual by the State.
 

kakster

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Its being reported here that Putin has ruled out any force option. Of course, the only alternative would be to grant Chechneya independence, so read into that what you will.
 

Joe Talmadge

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Probably makes sense. If he uses force, some of those kids will definitely get hurt, and he'll take nearly as much heat as the terrorists. If he has his guys continue to negotiate, obviously not giving into anything substantive, and the terrorists hurt the kids, it's more likely Russian fury will be directed at the terrorists than at their own government. Terrorism is terrorism, but these are children -- the consequences could be dire to whomever the public deems responsible.
 

Lebkuecher

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Looks like this is over but I'm hearing a least 5 Children are dead and probably a lot more. I would love to get my hands on these people.

Russian troops today stormed a school in southern Russia and secured the building where an armed gang, believed to be Chechen rebels, took hundreds of children, parents and teachers hostage on Wednesday. A local official said "most" of the hostages were alive. The ITAR-Tass news agency reported that 200 children had been hospitalized. Some of the children were naked and others wearing only underwear as they fled the building. One media report said 13 militants escaped.
CNN
 

James S

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There was a remarkably deadpan reporter on NPR this morning describing the carnage. I was actually insulted by his lack of emotion in describing the burns and injuries of the children. (for those of you that don't have children, you have no idea how much programming is laying in wait in your brains about this stuff. You think you know, but you don't know the depth of it at all!)

I'm at a loss to find any better thing for them to have done. I don't believe there was any way for them to resolve it other than by storming the place. Course, I'm sure the storming itself could probably have been managed differently, but what do I know about that.

So, can we add Russia to the list of countries that have been terrorized and NOT given in to them? It's not a long list if you limit your numbers to the last 18 months or so.
 
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