The world is going to change this is remarkable

[alpg88]

Just about everyone that lost power in the 2021 TX blackout also lost heat despite residential gas systems generally remaining online. That storm motivated me to get a minimal backup generator setup that can manage WFH (Work From Home) as well as conveniences like the refrigerator and the furnace since short term the TX grid isn't apt to be made any more reliable.


In this same scenario the roads are likely impassible and gas stations aren't getting deliveries. Blackouts can also jeopardize communications meaning no plastic transactions - and even if you've got cash they still might not be able to make sales such is the nature of POS systems these days.

During the Texas storm of 2021 the demand crunch ahead of time combined with the roads being impassable for days meant that many gas stations ran dry anyway.

General advice on EVs is to plug in when parked at home - cheaper than public charging and start the next day on full; not too far separated from the general idea that you should refill your ICE vehicle around ¼ since contingencies happen.


Wind has been more than 20% of Texas electrical generation for many years now which means a substantial reduction in fossil fuel usage. Yes these are intermittent sources but there are adequate thermal plants in the state; CC gas plants can spin/throttle up the turbine section quickly and peaking plants are even faster to spin up. CC gas plants' responsiveness has done more to retire coal plants than any .gov mandate. Solar faceplate capacity is a reasonable fraction of wind but obviously its capacity factor is less - but that's still a reasonable reduction in fossil fuel consumption during the day.

My point exactly, you store fuel for emergencies, (people do that) for your generator, atv, snow blower, snowmobile...etc oil for your heat. if you relay on grid electricity for all that, you do not have as many options, even if you have panels on your roof, by themselves they wont take you far. As far as payment system, does not really matter some will sell some wont, but it will be available unlike grid power
as you see in a chart, 12% isn't really that much, when more electric cars plugged into chargers, that extra power will be made mostly using FF, Wind power relies on wind, solar on daylight, FF power gets generated all day under any conditions, notice how 40% renewable energy is still burning stuff.

 

[alpg88]

 

[JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy]

CC gas plants' responsiveness has done more to retire coal plants than any .gov mandate. Solar faceplate capacity is a reasonable fraction of wind but obviously its capacity factor is less - but that's still a reasonable reduction in fossil fuel consumption during the day.

There is much truth to your statement. Grid operators (the ones responsible for keeping the lights on), see Nuclear as part of that mix too. While flow batteries may one day provide days of storage, they will still need to be immense to meet grid needs and maybe one day we are there, but like 30 year or 50 year storm planning, you need to plan grid backup in a similar long fashion and we do get periods with low wind and solar. Wide area grid networks can alleviate much of that, but as this recent storm pointed out, wide area 0 production can be huge too. A portion of the supply, guaranteed to be on, can keep all critical infrastructure running and homes heated (or cooled), while allowing short term reduction in non-essential. If the cost is higher for generation, it will be balanced by much lower storage requirements.

One thing is for sure, we don't know with any certainty what the future generation will look like.

 

[JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy]

Why is this such a concern? The grid silently absorbs new megalomarts, the uptake of heat pumps for industrial process heat, pool pumps, air conditioning compressors, resistance heating, dozens of can lights running PAR lamps on dimmers, and electric patio heaters left on all night without worry. It can handle any realistic pace of EV uptake at the macro level without anyone outside the industry really noticing.

It does not silently absorb. Engineers plan and implement generation, purchase agreements are made, etc. We have been fortunate to be in a time of somewhat flat demand mainly due to efficiency improvements from things like LED lighting, and better AC, better appliances, and people starting to top out in TV sizes. That was the low hanging fruit and it is coming to an end. Now we are looking at truly large scale capacity increases as gas and oil furnaces are replaced by heat pumps, and gas/diesel vehicles are replaced by battery vehicles. A 10-15 year 50% increase in generation capacity is unheard of in the last 2 decades. Electricity demand has been almost flat in the US since about 2000. Prior to that there were large increases in generation, but those were quickly built coal plants, just like China.

Unrelated FYI, research in Nuclear energy over the last 20 years has totally about $100 billion. Japan and France has led in that area, but over the last decade that has almost all been India catching up, some would say recreating the wheel. Take them out, and the spend over the last 20 years on Nuclear is about $60 billion. It is easy to argue when you pull numbers, often wrong, out of a hat. Fortunately, the people who keep the lights on both don't have that luxury, nor do they rely on it, though the politicians they report to just may.

 

[idleprocess]

It does not silently absorb. Engineers plan and implement generation, purchase agreements are made, etc. We have been fortunate to be in a time of somewhat flat demand mainly due to efficiency improvements from things like LED lighting, and better AC, better appliances, and people starting to top out in TV sizes. That was the low hanging fruit and it is coming to an end. Now we are looking at truly large scale capacity increases as gas and oil furnaces are replaced by heat pumps, and gas/diesel vehicles are replaced by battery vehicles. A 10-15 year 50% increase in generation capacity is unheard of in the last 2 decades. Electricity demand has been almost flat in the US since about 2000. Prior to that there were large increases in generation, but those were quickly built coal plants, just like China.

My point was that no one expresses the kind of concern about a new megalomart or subdivision or industrial park being built out that they do about EV charging; that's the silence I allude to. It's simply handled by the professionals who run electrical utilities.

Given that the electrical grid has one of the foundations of the modern economy for more than a century, augmenting it along the way to increased electrification isn't a bad thing. The timelines of CA and WA ICE phaseouts are ... aspirational ... at best thus it's going to be a slow roll on whatever changes to demand that we see from EVs.

 

[JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy]

My point was that no one expresses the kind of concern about a new megalomart or subdivision or industrial park being built out that they do about EV charging; that's the silence I allude to. It's simply handled by the professionals who run electrical utilities.

Given that the electrical grid has one of the foundations of the modern economy for more than a century, augmenting it along the way to increased electrification isn't a bad thing. The timelines of CA and WA ICE phaseouts are ... aspirational ... at best thus it's going to be a slow roll on whatever changes to demand that we see from EVs.

Because in the big scheme of things, those megamarts, even large scale industrial facilities are just a tiny percentage of grid requirements. Sometimes they may need a new feeder line.

However, we are talking a 50% generation increase, without using coal, something we have never done before. Those professionals are literally guessing at what they are going to use and what the mix will look like, that is by their own admission, as the political pressures don't match the engineering and economic realities.