Not that it changes much for the OP, but that's a complete mischaracterization of Buffett's many statements over the years. In fact, he has repeatedly and consistently said that he considers the purchase of his primary residence in Omaha to be the third best investment he's ever made, after the purchases of his two wedding rings (his first wife passed away a couple of decades ago and he has since remarried).
Buffett has spent years saying that he believes the 30-year fixed mortgage is the "best instrument in the world" but cautions that home ownership can be a bad investment if the conditions aren't right (job stability, likelihood to remain in the same locale, financial reserves to cover repairs, etc.). He has acknowledged he would have made more money if he had rented a house rather than paying cash for his home in Omaha and instead used that capital to buy stocks. Most people don't see the stock investment returns he does so that trade-off isn't the same for us normal folks. Buffett clearly didn't think home ownership was a genuinely bad investment choice, though, because he took out a mortgage to buy a second home almost 20 years after buying the first one. Despite having plenty of money on hand, he got a loan so he could preserve his cash for other, more lucrative investment vehicles. Still bought the house.
I'd agree with the characterization. He clearly, and overtly mentions it's a poor investment, ESPECIALLY in the last few years (he commented on that in 2021, and here's a comment from his final meeting). Conditions change, and housing markets have not been great in years.
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finance.yahoo.com
Really, his wife wanted a house, and he was happy to have a family, and a home was part and parcel to building and raising his family. He's been consistent on the fact it's good for that, but has also repeatedly mention it's not a good INVESTMENT.
Warren Buffett joked about his "love affair" with his home, called it his "third-best investment," and warned the wrong house can be a "nightmare."
www.businessinsider.com
#8 is what you're referring to, and rates DID go to just about that. How many people then paid off their mortgages on account of that?
He USED TO say it was great, because he expected rates would never go so low. Then they did. And thus, he stopped saying that the 30-year mortgage was great, because the facts changed, and rates plummeted as low as he expected them to never go.
And this ties to exactly what I said; people keep insisting on home ownership because of outdated notions. When there was a massively expanding population, and real estate was being financialized, money could be made. I don't think it was ever what people thought, but people think making money off LEVERAGED ASSETS is magic. Of course you feel like a financial genius when you have an asset where you borrowed hundreds of thousands of dollars for, haha. "Wow! It's worth so much! I only paid $50,000 for this $300,000 house! Thank goodness interest and inflation don't exist!"
We have a declining population, now. Boomers are starting to die off, and the next largest generation is the Millennials (their children), but the Millennials never reached the peak size of Boomers, and Millennials aren't having kids. US household size has moved down significantly over the past few decades. Boomers own something insane like 70% of real estate, and have something crazy like 15,000,000 second homes.
Who's going to be buying all these homes? And why? Over 70% of houses inherited get sold. As the boomers start dying, and homes transfer to kids, who then sell them, what's going to happen to the housing market when it's flooded with homes? Where will the demand for these homes come from? Current prices REQUIRE dual incomes. Prices would need to decline for all the single parents to become home owners, and all the single people without kids to buy homes. Otherwise....why would these people buy a home?
This isn't rocket science. But the National Association of Realtors has spend DECADES paying for positive press and articles to shame people into buying homes.
But, I get it. That's a LOT OF DECADES of "this worked wonders," and no one is going to believe things have changed until...the market implodes.
Poke around at Texas and Florida markets, and you'll see there's some real nightmares awaiting real estate in the next few years.
We'd spent the last few years trying to sustain this bubble by letting somewhere over 10 million people into the country at once. That was artificially raising rental rates, and many were getting FHA loans (we've just started to see that).
The Gubmint was working out loans during COVID, so people could not pay, and just toss those missed payments onto the end of their loans, to keep people in their homes and keep foreclosures low. Those programs have ended.
I sure as heck wouldn't be going broke to hang onto a house in this market. If you're buying a house for a good deal, and you're going to live there for decades, and it's important to you to own a home...it makes sense. It doesn't HAVE TO be a good investment, either.
Buying a cool car is a TERRIBLE investment, but...if you like it and have the money, and it's important to you, why not?
I'm more cautioning people against the NAR pressure that you HAVE to buy a home or you're "wasting money" on rent. No one has to buy a home, and renting can absolutely make fiscal sense. It currently makes WAY more sense than owning an overpriced home.
And, remember, we're talking about this in the context of someone who's lost $260,000 in a get-rich-quick scheme, trying to buy out siblings on an inflated valuation due to the current asset bubble. THAT is a really bad financial move, anyway you cut it.