If you consider an unregulated or Direct Drive Led, the output will drop from startup proportional to the battery voltage. As the voltage drops (battery losing capacity due to use) so does the output.
A Direct Drive Led will have a very high initial output. For an XM L2 say 1200 lumens. A Regulated light will have a lower initial output, say 900 lumens for my Malkoff Hound Dog, and so will be able to maintain the initial output for longer.
That's why we see so many 900/800/1000 lights when the XM L2 is capable of more.
Then of course we get to manufacturer's claims for output which are discussed elsewhere.
With clever regulation, constant current, PWM, etc the light can maintain a constant output for 10 mins to an hour or more depending on the capacity of the cells.
I hope that makes sense, a bit of a stream of consciousness I know.
P