Chip shortage causing car shortage. Same with flashlights?

[richbuff]

Car manufacturers state that new car production is low, due to chip shortage. Is the same thing happening with new flashlight production?

 

[jtr1962]

Just checked Mouser. Looks like plenty of stock on LEDs, LED drivers, and low-end microcontrollers.

Cars typically use ASICs which are custom made in relatively small batches for a specific model or range of models. Those typically are made slightly in advance of when the car actually starts being made. Any delay will affect production.

 

[Mr. LED]

@Hogokansatsukan said HDS has chips backordered to 2023… but luckily Henry has stocked up to hold a while. Other manufacturers might not be so smart/lucky and face shortages.

 

[raggie33]

fudge! the only thing i enjoy is gone now

 

[mjlamb]

If China gets emboldened and makes a run on Taiwan, we will see a chip shortage like none other.

 

[JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy]

Just checked Mouser. Looks like plenty of stock on LEDs, LED drivers, and low-end microcontrollers.

Cars typically use ASICs which are custom made in relatively small batches for a specific model or range of models. Those typically are made slightly in advance of when the car actually starts being made. Any delay will affect production.

No, most cars are not using custom ASICs. Most are using automotive grade versions of chips that are rated wider temp and have higher quality requirements.

Everything in electronics is in allocation especially low cost 8 bit micros, but also MOSFETs, analog, higher end controllers, etc. You had huge shutdowns of the supply chain due to Covid especially in packaging in Malaysia and Philippines and China contrary to what is published is not running on all cylinders and is poor at supply chain management exasperating the issue. Even ferrites for Magnetics are getting more expensive and longer leaf time and any type of component coming out of India is in trouble as the country shut down and other locations cannot replace.

Stock at Mouser and Digikey is a fraction of typical for many low end micros and prices are way up. 10's of thousands of many parts was bought up quickly last fall.

 

[jtr1962]

No, most cars are not using custom ASICs. Most are using automotive grade versions of chips that are rated wider temp and have higher quality requirements.

Call them whatever you want but the fact is these are non-standard versions of chips produced in much lower quantities than the "regular" versions. As such, foundries are giving them lower priority than large quantity orders for other types of chips.

 

[LEDphile]

Current part lead times are over a year for many components, including some LEDs. How much of a concern this is depends on the ability of the end-user manufacturers to manage their supply chains and source parts through distributors that may have stock.

Some of the problems are due to the bullwhip effect, some are due to the chip vendors being reluctant to spend the large sums required to expand capacity without firm orders, and there are almost certainly other factors at play as well. But the sentiment in the electronics industry right now is that this problem is going to stick around to some degree for at least the next year.

 

[Poppy]

Does some of the infrastructure bill include funds to increase home production of chips?

 

[jtr1962]

Does some of the infrastructure bill include funds to increase home production of chips?

No, but we passed the CHIPs Act which does the same thing. Not sure if the President signed it yet.

 

[Chauncey Gardiner]

Car manufacturers state that new car production is low, due to chip shortage. Is the same thing happening with new flashlight production?

An e-mail from Jason at Prothemus Lights -

About That Chip Shortage

You may have heard whispers. Caught an article headline here or there. Maybe in relation to car manufactures, who are definitely take the brunt of things. It's real. And it's here. Electronics dominate our lives. Most of it requires a microchip or semiconducter of some sort. The brains of the device. iPhones. Tablets. Cars. And yes, flashlights. And COVID has wreaked havoc on the supply chain. A combination of closed factories, shipping and transportation woes, and an increased demand has led us to where we are today. Which is a chip shortage the likes of which we have NEVER seen. Why am I telling you this? Because I cannot make flashlights without microchips. And it is getting VERY difficult to find them. And even when I do, the price tag is like a kick in the you-know-where. Will production on Prometheus and Foursevens lights grind to a halt? I don't know. I will do everything in my power to keep that from happening. Can I promise anything? No. No one can. There are too many variables. Too many unknowns. This is uncharted territory, and as we can see when we scan today's news (on any given day), it's still evolving. And likely will be, for the foreseeable future. I guess one of there reasons I tell you this is to say: if you've been sitting on a flashlight purchase but know you'd kick yourself if they sold out and didn't come back for a while, maybe it's a good idea to pull that trigger. The other, more important reason I tell you this? Transparency. It's been a pillar of the business since Day 1, and it always will be. I want you to know what's going on behind the scenes. What goes into making a flashlight. A pen. A tritium pocket hook. I want you to know what kinds of challenges we makers (not just me, all of us) face, especially during these tougher times. Not a sympathy play. Just a transparency one. We've been fortunate the past year and a half that we've been able to keep the shop running, lights on, employees employed. Many have not had it so good. But we're not out of the weeds. There are ripples we're only just feeling. And more on the way. As always, my gratitude to you for your support, for following along, and for being a part of this community. You are appreciated.

 

[Poppy]

I'm sure that many will agree with me. We need to be more self sufficient, and not beholding to other countries for any supplies needed for defense, (including chips). We should import things because we choose to, but not to the extent that we need to.

One quote that made an impact on me, was when I saw the movie "Tora Tora Tora " where Japanese Admiral Yamamoto said after attacking Perl Harbor, "I am afraid that we have awakened a sleeping giant." He was educated here in the US and knew of our manufacturing capability.

We have lost much of that. Years ago, I was stunned when I learned that much of our computer chip manufacturing had gone overseas.

I hope that we get it back.

 

[jtr1962]

I'm sure that many will agree with me. We need to be more self sufficient, and not beholding to other countries for any supplies needed for defense, (including chips). We should import things because we choose to, but not to the extent that we need to.

One quote that made an impact on me, was when I saw the movie "Tora Tora Tora " where Japanese Admiral Yamamoto said after attacking Perl Harbor, "I am afraid that we have awakened a sleeping giant." He was educated here in the US and knew of our manufacturing capability.

We have lost much of that. Years ago, I was stunned when I learned that much of our computer chip manufacturing had gone overseas.

I hope that we get it back.

Totally agree. We're far too dependent upon countries whose regimes are at best lukewarm to us. Also, it should be pretty apparent after trying it for a few decades that a mostly service-based economy just doesn't work. The jobs pay too low and really aren't all that satisfying.

The US needs to take the lead in commercializing space. That has virtually unlimited growth potential. And as Jeff Bezos said, moving heavy manufacturing off the planet would be a great thing to make this world more livable.

 

[JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy]

Call them whatever you want but the fact is these are non-standard versions of chips produced in much lower quantities than the "regular" versions. As such, foundries are giving them lower priority than large quantity orders for other types of chips.

No, that is not remotely true. Not even close. With the exception of companies like Apple, and a few other large suppliers, Automotive IS the priority, with better margins, huge buying power, and far more punitive missed delivery penalties. There are 80-100 million vehicles per year sold with an average $ values of semiconductors now about $350 or almost $35 billion in semiconductor sales alone. That is about 10-15% of the market size concentrated in a small number of suppliers. AI, electric vehicles, infotainment, etc. is going to double the automotive semiconductor share, and growth in 2nd world will further increase share (they are already saturated in many cases in phones, TVs, etc. while personal vehicles have low penetration).

Most manufacturers have platforms for electronics so volume on most chips tends to be really high, especially microcontrollers and power electronics.

From a foundry standpoint, the processes that are used for leading edge processors and similar are completely different from the processes used for the vast majority of automotive parts, similar to how MOSFETs, analog parts, etc. all have different processes so they don't compete for foundry resources.

 

[JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy]

Totally agree. We're far too dependent upon countries whose regimes are at best lukewarm to us. Also, it should be pretty apparent after trying it for a few decades that a mostly service-based economy just doesn't work. The jobs pay too low and really aren't all that satisfying.

The US needs to take the lead in commercializing space. That has virtually unlimited growth potential. And as Jeff Bezos said, moving heavy manufacturing off the planet would be a great thing to make this world more livable.

The reality is the massive employment in manufacturing in the US is never never never coming back. What could happen is a significant increase in engineering jobs and related jobs to develop the automation needed to have cost competitive manufacturing in the US. It is far likely to be automation that brings manufacturing back to the US, but it will never bring the large employment of the past. Just won't happen.

 

[jtr1962]

No, that is not remotely true. Not even close. With the exception of companies like Apple, and a few other large suppliers, Automotive IS the priority, with better margins, huge buying power, and far more punitive missed delivery penalties.

How come I'm reading differently?.

The auto industry faced plunging demand early in the pandemic. Automakers largely cut chip orders and lost their already low priority at semiconductor foundries.

From a foundry standpoint, the processes that are used for leading edge processors and similar are completely different from the processes used for the vast majority of automotive parts, similar to how MOSFETs, analog parts, etc. all have different processes so they don't compete for foundry resources.

That I know. LEDs, MOSFETs, low-end microcontrollers all use different processes.

 

[jtr1962]

The reality is the massive employment in manufacturing in the US is never never never coming back. What could happen is a significant increase in engineering jobs and related jobs to develop the automation needed to have cost competitive manufacturing in the US. It is far likely to be automation that brings manufacturing back to the US, but it will never bring the large employment of the past. Just won't happen.

In general jobs requiring low levels of education are disappearing. Autonomous vehicles will make driving jobs obsolete within a decade or two. Factory jobs as we know them won't come back but by the same token service jobs will be among the first to be replaced with automation. In general the idea of full employment won't be possible. Still a good idea to bring manufacturing back to the US, even if it's largely automated.

 

[JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy]

In general jobs requiring low levels of education are disappearing. Autonomous vehicles will make driving jobs obsolete within a decade or two. Factory jobs as we know them won't come back but by the same token service jobs will be among the first to be replaced with automation. In general the idea of full employment won't be possible. Still a good idea to bring manufacturing back to the US, even if it's largely automated.

Agreed. It stops the leaky economy where there is a continuous leaking of cash outside the US and the West in general

 

[JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy]

How come I'm reading differently?.

The auto industry faced plunging demand early in the pandemic. Automakers largely cut chip orders and lost their already low priority at semiconductor foundries.

That I know. LEDs, MOSFETs, low-end microcontrollers all use different processes.

Because you are reading seekingalpha and not truly professional sources:

Coping with the auto-semiconductor shortage: Strategies for success

The semiconductor shortage is causing billions of dollars in lost revenue for the car industry. Here’s why it’s happening and how to move forward.

www.mckinsey.com

They put more stake in compatibility of things like RF at similar node sizes to other chips, but the processes are different enough that that is a questionable claim.

 

[Dave_H]

I get regular email digests of happenings in electronics with quite a bit related to automotive. It is a truly staggering amount of activity and challenge to follow. Much of it is self-promotion, and I don't read everything but get the impression majority of components are standard offerings which of course need to be automotive-qualified. You can go to company sites and find datasheets for much of it. Not much mention of custom solutions.

Hardware customization can be done largely through FPGAs these days. Even so, the amount of NRE may be large. I've been through the hard-silicon ASIC process somewhat and it's pretty intensive and has its risks, including delays for "respins". Further "customization" is through software and/or the architecture (a whole topic in itself).

There is some pretty exotic stuff going on with System on Chip (SoC), "chiplets", high-perfomance memory etc. but I'm not too clear how much is in automotive.

Recently, On Semiconductor (which took over some semiconductor product lines from Motorola, except microprocessors which went to Freescale, then to NXP) has now rebranded itself with emphasis on automotive market, albeit not exclusively. That's a sign of where things are moving.

Many recall the day when flashlights were for the most part plated steel, with incandescent bulb and zinc-carbon perhaps alkaline cells. Now we have machined aluminum, LEDs driven by electronics (from resistors and linear chips to MOSFETs and controller chips), and lithium-ion cell(s).

Sorry folks but in the grand scheme of things I don't see flashlight electronics as a major factor. I pretty much have what I want or need. I sympathize with folks whose livelyhood depends on this, apart from that some of the dramatics can be a bit much.


Dave