D.E.F. (Adblue) and d.e.f. chip shortage

[Hooked on Fenix]

Here's a decent video explaining the situation:

 

[jtr1962]

I'll gladly donate my urine if that would help. Seriously, with all the factory farming going on can't we use that as a source of urea?

 

[scout24]

I didn't factor in delete kits, I stand corrected. I believe they're mainly aimed at pickups and personal vehicles, for those who want to look cool and "roll coal", but if we run out of def the scale of parts that would be needed for commercial trucking would be staggering and cripple the trucking industry.

 

[bykfixer]

Some American surfers who do a lot of traveling to catch the best waves fuel their old pickup trucks with used cooking oil they process themselves when the waves are flat.

I also read where McDonalds in the Netherlands uses their used cooking oil to fuel their delivery trucks. So perhaps even if that countries trucking industry collapses one can still get their fix of McNuggets.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

I'll gladly donate my urine if that would help. Seriously, with all the factory farming going on can't we use that as a source of urea?

Urea in pee is maybe a couple percent urea. Urea in Adblue is around a third. You'd waste an awful lot of fuel or power boiling the water out until you had the right concentration for the truck's computer to not reject. But thanks a lot. Now I have to do a public service announcement.

PSA: Warning: Please do not fill truck Adblue tank directly with urine. You may get stuck or worse. Remember, many tanks are equipped with hose cutters. Plus, you'll violate the truck's warrantee and the truck itself. You may find a lag in response time to your 911 call as they have to stop laughing before they can respond. You may even win the Darwin Awards. Please, just don't do it.

 

[Poppy]

Some American surfers who do a lot of traveling to catch the best waves fuel their old pickup trucks with used cooking oil they process themselves when the waves are flat.

I also read where McDonalds in the Netherlands uses their used cooking oil to fuel their delivery trucks. So perhaps even if that countries trucking industry collapses one can still get their fix of McNuggets.

Key words here is OLD diesel trucks.
Those are not computer driven, nor do they have any sophisticated pollution controls.

I am pretty sure that they also have to clean/service their injectors regularly, cause they get gummed up.

 

[Poppy]

I haven't seen any US news stories regarding AdBlue. Is it projected to be a problem here in the US?

If there is going to be a shortage, it is hard to believe that the media isn't all over sensationalizing it.

 

[idleprocess]

I haven't seen any US news stories regarding AdBlue. Is it projected to be a problem here in the US?

Saw a big stack of it at a filling station along the interstate when I travelled weekend before last, suggesting to me the shortage can't be that severe just yet.

 

[Poppy]

Yes, I saw it at a local station, along with windshield antifreeze.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

The problem is the worst in countries like South Korea and Australia that get nearly all of their supply from China, who cut off all exports of urea, the main ingredient in Adblue. What happened with Australia is interesting. China wanted a better price on coal from Australia. Australia told them no. China decided to boycott Australia's coal and deal with rolling blackouts instead. Meanwhile, China needed coal to make urea for Adblue. Since they couldn't make enough, they decided to horde all remaining supplies of urea to keep prices down on fertilizer (made with urea). Now Australia has no more Adblue and they don't make much themselves. This is what happens when you don't teach kids to get along and share, and they grow up to run countries.

As for the U.S., China was the world's largest seller of Adblue, before deciding to keep it all for themselves. Urea is made using coal or natural gas and is used to make Adblue as well as nitrogen based fertilizers (the most commonly used fertilizer on earth). A shortage of urea can cause a worldwide food shortage (less fertilizer, less food grown), as well as trouble running diesel powered farm equipment to grow and harvest the food, and causing a bottleneck getting the food to market with most semi trucks being diesel. But don't worry, the U.S. has plenty of coal and natural gas to make Adblue. It's not as if those fuels are currently being phased out or the federal land leases to get those fuel sources are being canceled. Oh wait, they are.

What you will see talked about in the U.S. is a shortage of d.e.f/Adblue sensors. Modern diesel trucks won't work without them. Truck drivers can't find them right now due to the computer chip shortages. This problem has the potential to shut down tens of thousands of trucks in the very near future. This includes semi trucks, police cars, fire trucks, ambulances, and garbage trucks.

 

[Poppy]

I'm glad to see that China is dependent upon some imports. Australia has been able to obtain another source to AdBlue or urea from ... India?

An AdBlue sensor chip shortage will shut down tens of thousands of diesel vehicles in the near future? That seems like a stretch.

With that said, it seems that we will not have a AdBlue shortage?

Thank you for your response, you are more knowledgeable on the subject than I.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

I said the Adblue sensor shortage has the potential to, not will shut down tens of thousands of trucks in the near future. Some companies might decide to replace the trucks with electric ones or retrofit their current ones to electric (very expensive either way). The government could change the law to allow for an emissions delete, bypassing the need for Adblue and the sensors entirely. The sensor shortage could end at some point solving the problem. Just because something could happen, doesn't mean it will. Keep an eye out and do a little prep work just in case, because things could go south very fast if this does happen.

 

[Poppy]

I said the Adblue sensor shortage has the potential to, not will shut down tens of thousands of trucks in the near future. Some companies might decide to replace the trucks with electric ones or retrofit their current ones to electric (very expensive either way). The government could change the law to allow for an emissions delete, bypassing the need for Adblue and the sensors entirely. The sensor shortage could end at some point solving the problem. Just because something could happen, doesn't mean it will. Keep an eye out and do a little prep work just in case, because things could go south very fast if this does happen.

It appears that the EPA is on top of this issue. I didn't know that there was a sensor shortage until you mentioned it.

"October 14, 2021, EPA is aware of how the global shortage of Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) sensors is impacting vehicle owners, and we are working diligently with manufacturers to support them in providing solutions.

EPA has approved all the software solutions provided to us by the engine manufacturers, and manufacturers have already begun implementing many of them."

Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) Sensor Shortage Updates | US EPA

Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) Updates

www.epa.gov

 

[jtr1962]

Some companies might decide to replace the trucks with electric ones or retrofit their current ones to electric (very expensive either way).

Expensive in the short term but probably cheaper in the long term. Companies that don't look solely at next quarter will convert ASAP. Those that do won't, and their long-term viability will suffer.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

Figured I should post an update to this thread with current events. Russia has halted exports of fertilizers. I won't get into the specifics. You can look that up on your own. This includes urea, which is used for Adblue. Russia is the world's largest exporter of urea, so this is a big deal. With the mess over there, this situation could last for awhile. Remember that we need fertilizer to grow crops. People are probably going to starve because of this. Also remember Adblue is required for semi trucks to ship food to market, for farm equipment to grow food, for garbage trucks, and for emergency services vehicles (fire trucks, ambulances, police cars). Brazil gets 20% of their supply of fertilizer from Russia and no longer has it. That means higher prices and less supply of soy beans, sugar, coffee, corn, and beef from them. Time to be growing your food at home. You might not be able to rely on groceries from the stores to feed you for much longer.

 

[jtr1962]

You can grow food without fertilizer, only the yields are less and you'll have to grow a different set of crops. And farmers will have to get smart about rotating crops so as not to deplete the soil. We also have a fair amount of "organic" fertilizer in the form of animal manure and compost.

A fair amount of our cropland and fertilizer is used just to grow animal feed. So moving away from meat will let us grow more food for humans with the same amount of fertilizer. For health reasons it's good to eat less meat anyway.

Seaweed is another possibility. The US has plenty of coastline.

And yeah, there's insects. We currently have a cultural aversion to eating insects but they're easy to grow and packed with protein.

I'm more worried about the potential hit on transportation than I am about the food supply. Long term it can be solved by electrification. Short and medium term is where the problem is.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

I think taking a 20% loss of crops in Brazil which produces more soy beans, sugar, and coffee than anywhere else in the world would be pretty bad. Brazil imports 85% of it's fertilizer. There is no short term solution for this. If they don't have the fertilizer, the crops don't get planted. The crops don't get planted, there's less food in the global supply. Hungary also just cut off their grain exports. Other European countries will be following suite with what's going on over there. I am wondering how long it will take the Adblue shortage to make things worse. Problems seem to be compounding right now so prepare for the worst. It seems to be coming soon.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

For Brazil, this may actually affect more than 20% of their crop. While they had relied on 20% of their imported fertilizers coming from Russia, 85% is imported. The rest of their imported fertilizers will go up in price on the open market, so they may have to deal with getting even less or pass along increased costs to consumers.

 

[idleprocess]

Time to be growing your food at home.

Impractical at best for a commanding majority of Americans to do much more than supplement their nutrition with a home garden. Living on a ~5000ft² lot of which half is lawn and a bit more than half of that gets reasonable sun I don't have a lot of space for crops - and I've probably got more space than the average city-dweller.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

With gas supplies the way they are, the worldwide shortage of fertilizer, and the potential of what is going on in Europe, I would suggest moving away from the big cities. Our current global population depends on fossil fuels and fertilizers to grow enough food for everybody. When both of those are suddenly cut short on a global scale, countries start to isolate and hoard their supplies of food for themselves because they know things are going to get bad. Hungary has already done this. Think of them as the canary in the coal mine. You need to get somewhere you can be self-sufficient and live off the land. You can't rely on delivery of goods and services to keep you alive with an unreliable supply of fuel, food, and energy. When people in the cities start to starve, all hell will break loose and you don't wan't to be near that many people desperate enough to kill you for a can of beans. I'm not saying it's practical or fair. I'm saying it's time to bug out of the cities and go to a farmhouse in the countryside and live off the land away from people you don't know. If you have evaluated that you cannot grow enough food on your current property to feed your family, you have but two choices. Stay, pray that nothing bad happens, and starve if it does. Or, move and attempt to improve your situation. I suppose you can stay and try to store up a supply of food and supplies, but when people get hungry, that will make you a target. Times are hard. Tough choices need to be made.