Pandemic supply chain in your area

[bykfixer]

I can see it now…… "this just in, klepto hipster arrested for accosting Santa Clause at the 7-11 coffee bar for using the last of the half-n-half"
"Police found 327 of those 2oz containers of the famous coffee additive stuffed inside the alleged assailants man-purse, now back to you Jane"…

"In a related story it seems folks are looting local coffee bars and gas stations for the famous additive as rumors of shortages circulated at a flashlight forum just yesterday, now to Ken with sports".

"Well Jane, it seems we have a new name for the world Rugby championships and a fitting name it is……the half-n-half bowl".

 

[PhotonWrangler]

I can see it now…… "this just in, klepto hipster arrested for accosting Santa Clause at the 7-11 coffee bar for using the last of the half-n-half"
"Police found 327 of those 2oz containers of the famous coffee additive stuffed inside the alleged assailants man-purse, now back to you Jane"…

"In a related story it seems folks are looting local coffee bars and gas stations for the famous additive as rumors of shortages circulated at a flashlight forum just yesterday, now to Ken with sports".

"Well Jane, it seems we have a new name for the world Rugby championships and a fitting name it is……the half-n-half bowl".

Lol! Ok, before anyone rushes out to panic buy, I did find some at the drugstore nearby, and that grocery store has now restocked. Call the newsroom and tell them it's ok to throw to the weather now.

 

[Chauncey Gardiner]

Granny, that's how everyone that knows her addresses my mom, and I went to the Fort Lewis / McChord commissary yesterday. The only item I noticed missing from the shelves was wet kitty food in a case. Otherwise, the shelves were packed.

 

[Poppy]

The problems affecting the West Coast, don't seem to be a problem on the East coast. IE no room for containers, and no trailers to move the containers around. Too many ships full of containers.

Last weekend I was in/near the Boston Harbor. I don't know if the container cranes were working. There were a number of containers, and empty trailers.

In New Jersey, the Port of Newark is reportedly operating as usual, with no interruptions.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

That's great news. Don't want to get caught with my pants down! :>)

What makes you think you'll have pants?https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/cotton-prices/index.html

 

[bykfixer]

Many may not realize that tarriffs imposed not that long ago are still in place. When it was all over the news that they were likely a bunch of companies put in tremendous orders for products made overseas. Then the Rona hit along with the tarriffs and suddenly the factories got quiet.

Then just like a light switch things turned back on for various reasons and suddenly there were log jams all over the place. All through 2020 Americans were consuming goods ordered before the pandemic caused a worldwide slow down. In 2021 they were depleted. That's not the whole reason for disruptions but it plays a big part.

To turn off a global supply chain on Tuesday and turn it back on Wednesday a year later does not happen without issues. Couple that with what looks like it could be taxes and fees imposed on some businesses and they tend to move with caution so again, log jams occur from lack of confidence in an evolving process of doing business globally.

The global system in place is very complicated. Ships arriving on the east coast for example have had to travel a whole lot farther than those arriving on the west coast in many cases. Ports on the east coast have largely been updated to compensate for the global system where some on the west coast have not.

Ok, a little tin hat theory: a decade ago it looked like a giant port on the west coast of Mexico was the future. Goods would then be transported east to the middle of Mexico and moved north through Texas. It was a very big undertaking funded by a world wide system that has not made it to fruition at this point. In America a giant toll road called I-77 was conceived as the route. Portions are built and other portions are being built. However the gaps have nixed the idea thus far. If I-77 is ever completed it will change the face of commerce in America, from Mexico to Canada. But for now the old system is still in place.

Many "global" thinking entities put their resources into the ginormous Mexican port instead of updating US ports. If you know who owns the ports it helps understand how we got where we are in the US. In many cases the ports are no longer American owned and operated.

 

[KITROBASKIN]

Marine Traffic image from Cauldryn battery heating water bottle to explain why their new heating bottle is not in yet.

 

[bykfixer]

"And now for traffic with Brian"……"
Well Dave there's a huge pile up on the pacific ocean"……

 

[jtr1962]

"And now for traffic with Brian"……"
Well Dave there's a huge pile up on the pacific ocean"……

I was thinking exactly the same thing seeing that.

 

[PhotonWrangler]

It's been tough trying to find home Covid testing kits in stores lately. I found a lesser known brand online but I haven't seen the Abbott Binax kits for awhile. I've heard that major sports teams are snatching up a lot of them.

 

[bykfixer]

Holy Crap! They call for one hour of rain changed to snow mix in my area and the place looks like a Moscow grocery store circa 1982. I pitty the folks who slept in this morning. The thing I do not understand is what-the-h-e-double hockey sticks is the reason for buying 22 stalks of celery?

Panic buying has set back in it seems. Plenty of toilet paper but no Gatorade or Power Ade to be had. And it's not on sale. Want orange juice? Sorry fella. Cold and Flu med? Yeah right. Bacon? Sorry Charlie. I speculate it's omni-cron related, since last week the radio said a person contracts it every 3 seconds lately. That's 3 not 30. Good gosh!!

It was not as bad as this time last year but it was not unusual to see a cart with 15 bags of potato chips along with 10-5# packs of fresh chicken to go with the 32 cartons of soda. It was either panic buying or a buncha people stocking the pantry at day care centers.

I told Mrs Fixer "it aint because of snow"…"why do you say that?" she replied. "Because they have 300 loaves of bread on the bread row and 300 gallons of milk in the refrigetator".

This was week #7 or 8 with no Pert shampoo so that stuff must have gone the way of the vcr or honest plolitician……they must have stopped making the stuff.
No local drug stores have it either.

 

[idleprocess]

I speculate it's omni-cron related, since last week the radio said a person contracts it every 3 seconds lately. That's 3 not 30. Good gosh!!

One way or another it likely is. If it's not panic buying it's one of the dozens of other supply chain disruptions that have shown just how many things have to go right in sequence for JIT logistics to avoid bare shelves.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

Looks like bacon or any other pig meat might be a thing of the past in California. A new law took effect at the start of the year that requires pigs have more space to live in their pens. If companies don't make their pig pens larger, they can't sell the meat in or to California. There are two problems with this law. First, the pig farmers have to compete against each other, so anyone who does the required upgrades loses market share to competitors and is then priced out of the market since they can't recoup their expenses. This has caused very few companies to even bother to comply with the new law. Second, even if they comply, there is no slaughterhouse in the U.S. that segregates California meat from other meat so there is no way to be compliant with the law and sell pig meat to California. Goodbye bacon. I guess I'll have to become a pig farmer and keep all the meat for myself to have a proper breakfast. That or we can clear out the people in government that write these stupid laws.

 

[PhotonWrangler]

One way or another it likely is. If it's not panic buying it's one of the dozens of other supply chain disruptions that have shown just how many things have to go right in sequence for JIT logistics to avoid bare shelves.

The pandemic has clearly shown the Big Flaw in JIT logistics. Too many potential points of failure with inadequate buffers in the process. JIT assumes that the entire supply chain is online 24x7x365 and will always work perfectly.

 

[bykfixer]

Just In Time logistics isn't as much the issue as demand flipping on and off like a light switch going from completely off to completely wide open with panic buying.

Even the stock market has an option to shut off when things move too rapidly. What I saw in the grocery store today was simply people hoarding from fear of something or other. Same as the 2019 toilet paper shortages and last years gasoline hoarding issues. I saw what I saw today back around the 45 days to slow the spread and then on a lesser scale the "Delta" scare where tater tots and ice cream sandwiches were the panic sticken products.

Simply put, when 30% of the customer base starts suddenly ratcheting up their purchases 500% (such as 20 frozen pizzas in the cart instead of 3) things are bound to run short at times.

 

[Chauncey Gardiner]

I'm stocking up in case there's a shortage - thereby creating the shortage.

 

[Poppy]

I'm stocking up in case there's a shortage - thereby creating the shortage.

It's true. If there is a suggestion that there will be a shortage, and people bought an extra 5% or 10%, within a week, the supply chain would catch up. But, when people hoard stuff, they create a problem where there would not be one. I recall (last year) seeing a lady with a cart FULL of chicken, and where there was a fair amount of chicken for sale, there was now... NONE! I could only shake my head.

Thankfully I haven't seen that happening quite yet. Perhaps, if they shut the schools, people will start to think that they may shut businesses again, and the panic buying will begin. In my town, they haven't gone virtual in the schools, yet. But the neighboring towns have. A couple of weeks here or there, it'll be similar all over.

 

[bykfixer]

Not to say the supply chain is without some weak or weakened links, but I honestly believe much of the issues in the last 24 months have largely been due to panic buying, going back to rumors of tariffs when companies were buying like a drunken sailor before prices went up.

In 2019, I worked at a project where the contractor stored several million $ worth of foreign made pipe at a site near the project that they bought before the tariffs began. In 2020 the price of the pipe had nearly doubled. In 2021 it was a crap shoot if you could even buy the pipe at all.

Lately fresh made concrete has been hit or miss for small quantities but that same contractor has no trouble receiving small batches because somebody had the where-with-all to order a daily batch for the next two years back in 2020.

They had placed a gigantic order for concrete pipe and suppliers said "screw you hoarder" lol. They are just now receiving small batches of concrete pipe after months of delays while the suppliers filled the small orders from non hoarders.

 

[idleprocess]

Not to say the supply chain is without some weak or weakened links, but I honestly believe much of the issues in the last 24 months have largely been due to panic buying, going back to rumors of tariffs when companies were buying like a drunken sailor before prices went up.

I'm in no position to say what the dominant factor is, but the uncertainties that transportation and production snags have introduced into the economy the past ~2 years have spiked demand for warehouse space as companies increase their safety stock to a degree not seen in decades. Like consumers, producers are panic-buying - stock on the shelf is apparently more valuable at the moment than money in the bank.

 

[bykfixer]

If I recall correct it was about 1993 when a downturn in the economy seemed to shift from stockpiles to Just In Time policies for many items related to road building in my area. Prior a contractor who build storm sewer inlets for example could buy the steel bars, the steps, manhole lid etc as they needed from stockpiles. Same with water pipe, fire hydrants etc. But suddenly if you had not placed an order well in advance of expected delivery then "oops, shoulda called us yesterday".

I read a story about Ford taking a cue from Honda where they build storage space for seats from out side suppliers because time is money. The bean counters had noted that the assembly line being halted even for an hour due to a shipment arriving late could end up costing more than the cost of company owned storage space.

Meanwhile companies like Proctor & Gamble are shedding slow selling brands like Pert Plus shampoo, Sure deodarant etc to companies outside the US so one can longer find Sure in the local CVS but if they live in Egypt…no problem. If you used to use Vitalis, not even Amazon has that stuff anymore. At least for now.