Ivan the Terrible - Cat 5... again

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Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

Yeah, and it went back up to 150 as of 8pm.

I saw a report on how many of the Jamaicans didn't want to evacuate their homes for fear of looters. They didn't want to have what happened in Grenada happen to them.
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

I have a feeling if it stays Cat 4 or so, and passes within 30-40 miles West of Key West...

There might not BE a Key West!

Yep, Jamaica is catching hell now. Did you see the pics from Grenada??? Yikes!

I feel VERY VERY sorry for Florida!!!
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

11 pm advisory has it at 155mph winds, just 1 mph short of a category 5. However, it's tracking a little further south than expected. It has at least NOT directly hit Kingston.
 
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Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

"Ivan's eye wall and the ferocious 155-mph winds around it miraculously took an unexpected hard left just as they neared Jamaica's southern coast. Then, the core mercifully ran parallel to the shore until the storm cleared the island."
- Miami Herald

I don't think the FL peninsula will see Ivan. It's headed hard to the west and is located so far south it is against odds that it would make a turn north in time to catch the peninsula. Upper gulf coast more likely. If it reaches yucatan, FL maybe completely out of danger.

IR loop of IVAN

Right. Like anyone can predict them. They can turn into extratropical blizzards. I can't remember the name of the last one that did that. One hurricane was headed toward Cape Fear. At the last moment, it headed due east, then it turned around 180 degrees and hit Cape Fear.

In 2002 Hurricane Lili was screaming toward New Orleans as a Cat 4. At one point the eye was as large as Lake Pontchatrain. I thought, "Dang, this thing is so powerful that not only will it devastate New Orleans but it will trash Shreveport."

It fell apart as it touched the coast of New Iberia (Tobasco Sauce). Slow moving western cool dry air took it out. No forecasters saw that happening. There was flooding and I think I read 29 casualties but nothing at all like was predicted or could have been.

Hurricanes are fascinating but I hope Ivan just falls apart.
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

Looks like it will miss Miami (I hope). My mom is there in a very solid 8 story condo but I've read that winds like these can tear apart solid well constructed masonry buildings. When I was last down there I brought flashlights and shipped a supply of fluorescent lanterns and D batteries and made sure she knew exactly what to do and who to hook up with, and rehearsed a whole survival routine. Evacuation is not an option.

With 165mph sustained and 200mph+ gusts Ivan is well into Fujita tornado intensity F3 and heading right up to F4 (out of a possible F5). A lot of people have experienced milder hurricanes and have no idea what a powerful monster like Ivan can really do.

Brightnorm
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

I am holding off freaking out until Ivan crosses Cuba. The mountains there should make it do something different than it is now. They keep moving the expected track closer and closer to me. A couple of more small updates to the west and you should be able to see my little brick house at the predicted point of landfall if you look real close. That would be me in the picture burning rubber as I bug out.

Doing research today I discovered FL has only had one cat. 5 hurricane hit in the last 100+ years. Let's keep it that way!
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

Anyone have any updates on the path and predicted US landfall? I haven't kept up, and of course I've got family in Broward Co. and Polk Co. Just wondering if I should panic yet and hoping this storm weakens!
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

Diesel Dave -

Yes, I think I see your house. It's the one with the A6 in the driveway? Nice ride, man.

flashlight widow -

I was looking at a site just now that I haven't seen before. They seem to be very up to date. WeatherUnderground or wunderground.com.

Here is thier Ivan track map.

I was looking for some history to see if I could find validity to the idea that since Ivan was so far south and headed hard to the left, the FL peninsula would be spared. I see on thier site this History of Cat 4s and Cat5s that came within 400 mi of Ivan.

I find loops to be useful. In the last few hours this loop shows a WNW jag I don't like because I was hoping Ivan would clear Cuba, nip Yucatan and become a non-injurious rain event in South Texas and Mexico. Fast loading, colorful IR loop.
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

"The full force of Hurricane Ivan hit the Cayman Islands today, ripping up homes and causing extensive flooding.

Up to 40,000 residents – including a large British expat community – hid in homes and shelters to try and escape Ivan’s ferocious 155mph winds.

Waves of up to 20ft were reported in coastal areas and power lines and debris cut off roads."

- The Scottsman

They didn't mention the 200 + MPH gusts. That would be like standing on a platform atop an Indy or F1 car, full throtle, down the back stretch, during a downpoor. Surely, you would learn to fly.

The eye missed the main island by 50 miles.

This is good. As Ivan stairsteps W by WNW the more chances it has to make the slot between Yucatan and Cuba, or better yet, clip Yucatan. Why is this good? It has a better chance of turning into a blob of rain the further west it goes into the Gulf of Mexico. Hopefully, no one else will be hurt.
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

I read a piece in my local rag Houston Chronicle (Pravda!) telling what would happen should a cat 4 or 5 hit this area...

It weren't pretty.

But I have a question. Why if Ivan goes deeper into the gulf, should it lose power? The gulf waters are quite warm.

Since it ain't doing exactly what they thought it would do, I ain't gonna be completely comfortable until it disapates or hits somewhere well east of here.

My condolences to wherever it does make landfall!
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

[ QUOTE ]
PlayboyJoeShmoe said:
...But I have a question. Why if Ivan goes deeper into the gulf, should it lose power? The gulf waters are quite warm.


[/ QUOTE ]

As long as it is over water above 85F it can build. I think the Gulf is usually above that 'til November.
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

Sub,
Are you in the Nawlins or Baton Rouge area? Talk about a place that can't take a cat. 4 or 5 and New Orleans is near the top of any list.
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

[ QUOTE ]
Sub_Umbra said:
[ QUOTE ]
PlayboyJoeShmoe said:
...But I have a question. Why if Ivan goes deeper into the gulf, should it lose power? The gulf waters are quite warm.


[/ QUOTE ]

As long as it is over water above 85F it can build. I think the Gulf is usually above that 'til November.

[/ QUOTE ]

The folks at IIRC "Weather Channel" said something about a dry cold front coming from the west that will colide with Ivan over the Gulf and weaken it to a high Category three before it hits the US. If I'm not explaining this right, I apologize. However, that is my understanding based on their techno-babble.

Its usually being over land that weakens tropical storms, but from what I understand the meteorologist saying so can dry cold air fronts (exact term they use I don't remember).
 
Re: Ivan the Terrible - now Cat 5

[ QUOTE ]
DieselDave said:
Sub,
Are you in the Nawlins or Baton Rouge area? Talk about a place that can't take a cat. 4 or 5 and New Orleans is near the top of any list.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm probably a whopping 6 feet above sea level.(My nose bleeds just thinking about it.) It's spooky but it's nowhere near as nuts as it sounds. I'm 80 miles from the 'Guf', which puts N.O. in a different situation than most hurricane targets on the east and gulf coasts. We can get the wind and surge, but we don't get the surf. The surge coupled with the surf coming inland have a much greater potential to do damage than just the surge by itself. The surf amplifies the surge greatly in both height and violence.

The house we live in is in VERY good shape and it's 170+ years old. That's a good sign. Even the glass in the windows is VERY old. That's another good sign. I mention those points because it's not like many of the houses/locations in this town. It took us over a year to find this place.

We would probably never evac because of a storm. It's too complicated to go into but there are at least a few hazards associated with hurricane evacuation in general, and evacing New Orleans in particular has some of its own unique problems.

We've been around here for quite a while and picked our house partly with hurricanes in mind, like I said. We feel pretty good about our plans.

I'm just afraid that one of these years a big storm is going to hit in just the right (or wrong) place and the potential is there for carnage the likes of which we have never seen in the States from a hurricane. Eastern FLA has become so built up in some places in the decades since those spots were hit last -- the mind reels.

I'd really just hope that everyone not hit already by Ivan could somehow just skate by on this one.
 
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