I have some test data to add to the mix
The other night, I ice-water cooled a 1W Royal Blue /O. The Al PCB is thermal epoxied to an Athlon heat sink. I poured a bowl-full of water, put about 5 ice cubes in, and dipped the HS in fin-first.
The heat sink stabilized to about 9 degrees C.
At ~700mA, it was appreciably brighter than rated current.
However, bumping the current to 1300mA gave no appreciable brightness gains. The heat sink never deviated in temperature (stayed at 9 C).
At 1300mA (~5W), with the heat sink at 9C, and an estimated thermal resistance of 20C/W (17 J-B, ~3 conservative estimate for the thermal epoxy), Tj was probably at 100C. Lumen/Temperature derating is spec'd at 80% for the RB..
So the output must simply level out due to other limitations..
It seems that about 600-700 is about the max reasonable overdrive before you reach diminishing returns.
-Darin