Think I should clarify my previous post a bit.
Phosphor degradation *appears* to be one mechanism in the light droop of white LEDs, bearing in mind that phosphors are used in fluorescent lamps and TV screens as well, with a much longer life span than 6000 Hours.
Nichia`s main business is in fact phosphor production....
The other factor is `yellowing` of the plastic used to form the led case, think of plastics that yellow over time in the sun.It is the very close proximity of the plastic to the blue LED die that means UV energy desity could be fairly high accelerating the `yellowing`.
Development of more stable plastics should alleviate this problem.
Interestingly Luxeon Star has the phosphor held in a gel beside the die, this could be part of the answer.
Part of the difficulty in estimating life span is, it quite literally takes time, several thousand hours to find out what actually happens.LEDs being semiconductor devices have no real parts to fail, no filament to degrade etc.Hence the 100,000 life often quoted.
As someone looking to market LED products commercially think it is better to be realistic and honest about LEDs shortcomings as well as there advantages.
There is an awful lot of hype about, which could backfire and leave users with a bad impression of LEDs in general.
For a more detailed look at some of the issues have a look at:
http://www.lrc.rpi.edu/library/NN_ies1.pdf
From the Lighting Research Center
http://www.lrc.rpi.edu
Theres a lot of useful info there, not all of it requires a degree in physics to understand :-)
Adam