Practice Drill: Widespread flood and power outages

Imagine if you will, you live near the tallest dam in the United States. It is full and pumping out over 100,000 cubic feet of water a second over the main spillway which has been ripped in half from erosion from the water running down it. The emergency spillway is damaged and could cause the dam to be breached if it is used again. A storm just dropped 10 inches of rain in the area in the last day and more is on the way. Also, the rain is warm and is melting the record setting snow pack above the lake. The nine other lakes feeding into this lake are full and need to release water to prevent their dams from breaking. The hydroelectric plant that would add 14,000 cubic feet more of water released is clogged up with debris and is not producing power or releasing water. The route the water was diverted during the dam construction collapsed years ago and was never repaired so it can't serve as a backup way to release the water. You have just been informed that if the dam breaks, the order to evacuate will not give anyone enough time to escape the incoming wall of water that will wipe out everything in it's path. Also, all the other dams in this part of the state are full or overflowing, and the major rivers are at flood stage. Routes in the area will be congested with traffic or flooded for over 100 miles away. 188,000 people in the immediate area will be evacuated soon. The dam and the series of dams above provide much of the power to the area. Roads will be clogged. Hotels and emergency shelters will be full. Gas stations will be emptied. Stores will be emptied and abandoned. Where do you go, and what do you bring in your INCH (I'm not coming home) bag? What flashlights, batteries, and other powered devices do you bring for this type of situation? What is your plan?

By the way, this isn't something from the Twilight Zone. This is Oroville,California today. The river flooding extends past Sacramento. Oroville dam and the 9 ones above it provide much of the power for the area and are about to spill over. There is the possibility of widespread blackouts as well as not being able to find a safe place to bug out to.

Leave NOW and wait for the water to return to safe levels before going back.

If I lived downstream of that dam I'd definitely be somewhere else until it was safe.

We live 50 or 80 feet above full pool of the lake here. There is no risk it will ever flood at our house, but if the dam broke the nuclear plant would probably melt down. If I had to leave quickly flashlights wouldn't be on my list of things to grab, but depending on how much time I had, here's a prioritized list: wallet, keys, phone, wife's violin, my bagpipes, kilts, cameras, clothes, computers.

If I had a whole day to prepare I'd spend more time considering value to weight ratios of what would fit in the car. If I have enough time to grab my shaving kit, there is a tiny wind up flashlight in it.

The nine lakes that feed Lake Oroville are full as well. If any of their dams break, you'll have the same situation above the lake. If you live above the lake to the side of any runoff from the other lakes, I wouldn't necessarily call that safe either. Likely, that would be a bug in situation instead of a bug out situation. You might be on high ground to avoid flooding, but if your escape routes are flooded, resupplying food and other supplies will be difficult. You'd likely lose power. Oroville dam and the series of lakes above it make up PG&E's stairway of power. http://www.wplives.com/frc/stairway_of_power.html These hydroelectric generating plants produce a substantial amount of power for the area. If they failed or if the transmission lines leading to them were wiped out in a flood or mudslide, widespread blackouts would be a definite possibility. With the number of people that would have to be evacuated (188,000 last time) and the size of the area likely to be in a blackout, odds are that flashlights and batteries will be among the first things sold out in stores. If Oroville Dam broke, I'd also be worried about the nuclear plant located a bit downstream, but also likely to be destroyed would be the largest dried fruit processing plant in the world in Yuba City. Many of the rivers are in flood stage, including the Sacramento River. The state capital Sacramento has a flood risk whether or not a dam breaks. Some levies have started to fail in Northern California as well. Some things to consider: the constant threat of Oroville Dam collapsing and the knowledge that evacuation would be too late, the risk of flooding in areas south of the dam should it fail, the normal flooding from all the rivers in the area blocking escape routes and limiting places to evacuate to, what to do if that nuclear plant melts down, and how far you have to travel to escape the madness of other people trying to flee this disaster.

In re-reading my post I see where I might have given the impression that I'm near Oroville, but I'm in South Carolina.

PBC: posting before coffee


;-)

I don't actually have a grab bag, because having considered all the credible disasters in my area (wind storm, snow storm, flood, earthquake, tsunami, volcano, landslide, violent civil unrest, nuclear strike), and my specific location relative to how such a disaster would unfold (semi-rural area on a high, gently sloping hill), including taking into account FEMA, USGS, and other sources of information on the matter...

...my best option personally is to shelter in place.

The exception is a house fire. In that case, there's presumably no time for even a grab bag - maybe the nearest flashlight if it's dark out, but that's about it. In that case, I can also probably count on access to local charitable services and/or the generosity of friends.

If I did live, for example, in an area with a high potential risk of flooding, I'd probably have both a grab bag, and a evacuation packing list.

The grab bag is something that stays packed in an easily accessible closet. It would have a first aid kit, knife/multitool, matches, 1000+ calories worth of non-perishable food, socks, a towel, and probably a flashlight. If needed, fill a nalgene with water, grab a coat, the bag, and be out the door in 1 minute or less, able to move on foot if needed.

Also, get in the habit of filling the car when it reaches 1/4 tank. If you wait until the light comes on, you usually can't count on much more than 30-40 miles. At 1/4 tank, you've roughly tripled that.

The packing list is things to keep on hand in case there is time to gather more items to support a longer evacuation using the car. It should include more food and water, preferably a way to prepare it (I have a good camp stove), toilet paper and/or paper towels, a change of clothes, etc. The plan would be to grab the nearest handy boxes, suitcases, or tupperware bins, dump out whatever is in them, and then start going down the list, filling boxes, and loading it into the car.

The situation at Oroville is stable and generally improving. The lake level will go up a bit over the next couple of days due to the recent rains, but they aren't even expecting to have to increase the spillway flows back up to their previous peak to handle it and get the level back down before the next rain.

That said, there's been tons of people shown on the news who clearly were not prepared for the initial evacuation. Hopefully they remember the lesson for the future.

Things that concern me about the Oroville Dam issue that lead me to believe that things are not getting better:
Hyatt Hydroelectric Power Plant is offline for two reasons. First, the transmission lines were knocked out when the emergency spillway was used. The plant required grid power to function. Second, the diversion pool that feeds into the hydroelectric plant is clogged with debris from all the broken pieces of concrete, dirt, and rocks coming from erosion from the damaged main spillway.

The controls for the floodgates for the main spillway require power to function. With the transmission lines down and the power plant down, the floodgates are running on backup generators. This is the last line of defense before the floodgates fail and the dam can no longer let out water at a controlled rate.

Information is being restricted. No footage has been available from the bottom of the main spillway since the 19th (at least I can't find any). The whole area has been declared a no fly zone. No drone footage. No helicopter news crews. The last videos of the dam were given to news crews from the people in charge of the dam and mostly showed repairs being made on the emergency spillway. The last people who posted pictures of the damage were fired. Live footage provided of the dam only shows from behind the dam at the main and emergency spillways (propaganda only showing you how far down they've lowered the lake as opposed to damage on the other side). The people in charge of the dam are using encrypted two way radios and speaking in code. They want to keep a tight lid on information going out.

The last footage of damage to the main spillway showed it was nearly broken all the way across and had the railing damaged on both sides. The water flowing down on the right side was clear which means it ran out of dirt to erode at the bottom (it's eroded down to bedrock). The water was carving out a good sized chunk back towards the dam with hardly any water making it down the end of the spillway. This means that they have to balance using the main and emergency spillway to prevent catastrophic failure at either location.

They evacuated the fish (and fish can swim). That's just like California to put the lives of animals above those of people. That is a red flag for me. When the animals are evacuated in a state that cares more about animals than people and they are saying everything is fine, that's when you run as far away as possible.

Because both spillways have failed to a degree, they will be looking to shore up the emergency spillway with rocks and concrete for when they need it again. The main spillway has to be shut down for a time for them to remove the concrete and debris in the diversion pool so they can bring the power plant back online and use it to reduce the lake at 14,000 cubic feet per second. However, this requires both cleaning up the diversion pool and replacing transmission lines before the water level reaches the top of the emergency spillway. If water pours over the emergency spillway again, the transmission lines get knocked out again and shut down the power plant. If the main spillway is used, the debris from erosion will shut down the power plant. If power isn't restored to the dam and the backup generators fail or are unable to be refueled, the floodgate controls for the main spillway won't be functional and the dam could fail. If either the main spillway or emergency spillway are overused, erosion will cause the dam to fail. It's a complicated catch 22 and a race against the clock.

Loaded and ready to roll all the time.
About 700 mile range and self-contained.

I probably would have left last week too.:sick2:

Oroville itself is kind of off topic from the general emergency planning / flashlights discussion, so I don't want to go into exhaustive detail about why I'm not concerned. I will make a couple short points, including that forbidding employees from releasing unofficial photos is pretty normal, even in the government, despite usually being pointless. The reason you can't find many images is that once the immediate emergency was over, the media lost interest and hasn't been pestering CA Water Resources or others for continuously updated images that look pretty much the same as the day before. They are still releasing some photos though. Obnoxiously, they've been doing so mostly on Facebook and through a third party image hosting service they apparently use.

Photos, updated today with photos from yesterday. I assume we'll see today's photos tomorrow:
http://pixel-ca-dwr.photoshelter.co...yfg/G00003YCcmDTx48Y/Oroville-Spillway-Damage

Facebook page, with video of today's press conference at noon a couple posts down:
https://www.facebook.com/CADWR/posts/10154458772847449

In that video, they reported the inflows are 85,000 cfs and decreasing, and they expect the reservoir level to peak about 45 feet below the emergency spillway sometime today or tomorrow morning.

The dam itself was never expected to collapse. The concern was the concrete weir that forms the emergency spillway on the adjacent hillside collapsing. If that happened, the depth of water pouring over the remains of the emergency spillway could be as deep as 30 feet, and flow rate would have multiplied many times over, causing severe flooding downstream.

Alright, back to emergency planning...

A reminder of how much the weather has affected the land this last couple of weeks; the mountain range dead North of us has a nice big shiny cleft in it from a brand new landslide; that's probably a quarter mile of land there:

Is that above rancho?

Think of this as a case study or real life example of a bug out situation. There is a real chance you won't be going home. What do you bring with you? What is your escape plan? With so much flooding in the area and dependence on hydroelectric power in the area, what would you plan for during the potential blackouts? What lights would you bring, what batteries, what other electronic devices (radio, laptop)? Is there a possibility for the state capital to be flooded or Nevada's capital with another dam that might break? This isn't a zombie apocalypse but it is a real life example of what could happen in an emergency even if the worst case scenario doesn't play out. We have the potential of a widespread evacuation, a widespread flood, widespread power outages, repairs that could bankrupt the state, possible flooding of two state capitals, and possibly a nuclear meltdown (Not sure on that one now. I've heard conflicting information that it may or may not have ever been brought online.). We also have record rainfall and snow pack this year so this event will be ongoing for probably months. So, what do you pack, and what do you do in this type of situation?

Offgridled said:

Is that above rancho?

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Yes, I'd put it dead north of Ontario, would be hard to miss if it weren't for the low clouds lately.

AVService said:

Loaded and ready to roll all the time.

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So what all's in the van and trailer?

StarHalo said:

Yes, I'd put it dead north of Ontario, would be hard to miss if it weren't for the low clouds lately.



So what all's in the van and trailer?

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Well the Van is a work van and the Trailer is ready to go for 2 weeks essentially once I load Gas and Genset and get it hooked up which takes under 1/2 hour typically.
I have deployed for the Salvation Army a few times to help in disaster recovery mainly as an amateur radio operator for the SATERN network and the basic rule is to not be part of the problem when going to help.

So there is plenty of food and water and first aid mainly for 1 person and the trailer is fully self contained to that end.
I try to not use any water on board and there are usually facilities around to help that but if I have to I can use built-in resources for bathroom too.

There is also Communications and Survival gear loaded and it is a pretty reassuring feeling having it all together for sure.
We are in Tornado Country here and you just never know when it will be needed and as an example I was in Joplin on the ground and working radios the day after the big one there in 2011.
I am lucky to work for myself and can pick up and go when the call comes in usually.
The trailer has 160 watts of solar and 225ah of battery built-in and the truck can carry 300ah of "portable" batteries and portable solar panels as I usually don't want to be parked where the sun hits the trailer the best!
I have no trouble supplying my own power needs except for air conditioning of course.
I can put up a 30' fiberglass and a 35' aluminum antenna tower in about 15 minutes as needed with the trailer or truck making them stay in the air.

I also camp several times a year from this and I have pretty much learned how and what to keep in there to be able to just hook up and go and be covered for the basics while being a whole lot more comfortable than if staying in shelters.
I can tow with a few different vehicles and always have one of them at home backed up to the trailer in the driveway anyway.
I have lived in this one everywhere from South Florida to Colorado and am ready to go all the time and it is really cozy too.

So knowing myself and the way we are often alerted to potential disaster too I would likely already be somewhere else if in the area of the flooding I imagine,better safe than sorry if you can pull it off I think.

Hooked on Fenix said:

What lights would you bring, what batteries, what other electronic devices (radio, laptop)?

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I have a butane stove. I'd bring that and a wok. I know from experience camping that a headlamp that isn't too bright is really good for cooking in the dark, so I'd bring that. I'd probably bring a tea kettle.

I'd leave the laptop, but I'd bring the ipad, because the battery life is so much better.

If we're likely not going to be going home, then we have two crossover SUVs, so we'll probably run out of packing time prior to running out of space. We'll take the valuable stuff and the sentimental stuff.

Hooked on Fenix said:

Think of this as a case study or real life example of a bug out situation. There is a real chance you won't be going home. What do you bring with you? What is your escape plan?

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Yep, I probably shouldn't have even bothered interjecting with my reading of the latest status.

Although the dam held, an evacuation did happen, and people were not prepared, so it's a very real case study. And even this week, others are evacuating because numerous rivers are flooding from high flows even with all the dams intact.

For my part, all my good lights are 1xAA or 1xAAA - that's good for battery compatibility if I need spares.

In an emergency bugout, I have a 1xAA by the door to grab on the way out. If I had an extra couple minutes, I'd also grab my 1xAA headlamp. Since both have 14500's inside them, my XTAR MC1 charger would also arguably be worth remembering, along with a small USB powerbank I have that could be used for either the flashlights or phones. A couple spare NiMH or Alkalines wouldn't be a bad idea, but a lower priority knowing I have two good cells and a viable way to get probably 1 recharge into each of them.

If I had time to pack the car, my laptop would probably come along, and aside from other uses, it's battery could also potentially provide a few charges.

My Kindle would be great because monotony can painful while waiting until it's safe to go home if you have nothing else to do but think about how bad of shape your home might be in. They're lightweight, have very long battery life, and the illuminated screen on the newest models can double as a moonlight mode.

I live near Shasta Dam, not all that far from Oroville. Lake Shasta is the largest reservoir in CA, so I have a few things I can grab quickly, including a few flashlights and extra batteries (NiMH AAA, cr123, and 18650). I am still working on a disaster kit. Something simple in my car to get home or get to relatives out of the area if I am at work (property crime has gone up quite a bit, so nothing too fancy, but that's another story), and something more involved at home. I have canned goods and water, but MREs and a water filter make sense. I took a geology of natural disasters course in college. There is a large subduction zone off the coast here and there are hibernating volcanoes. If, say, the sub zone causes a massive earthquake (I mean, when), roads might be un-drivable. So I would either have to leave on foot or stay put. I learned in the course that we should have food and water for two weeks, so I have some more stuff to get.
I read some nice reviews of water filters for about $20 or less.
To those in Oregon, the subduction zone was only really understood to be a danger in the mid 1990s or so. Building codes were modified, but a lot of structures are still not anchored to their foundations. Also, the flood maps are not pretty. I don't know about Washington's codes, etc. OR may end up with a lot of collapsed buildings. People are retrofitting but it can get pricy.

Two weeks of food is decent for getting you to somewhere safe. However, if you don't have a place to go to with more or a job waiting for you where you're going to get you back on your feet, it's not going to be enough. Bring plenty of cash if you have it or at least have a decent amount in your bank account for food, gas, and lodging. I'd bring a tent or two for the family to camp out, if you don't have a motorhome or camper with you. Have a stove and cook kit and sleeping bags as well. As for the water filter, if you are planning to stay anywhere near a place that is flooded, no $20 filter made will be good enough to filter flood water. Flood water carries oil and gasoline from cars, raw sewage, and often, dead bodies are floating in the water. My favorite backpacking filters (Sawyer Mini -$20, and Sawyer Squeeze- $30) will filter out sediment and bacteria very well, but not viruses and chemicals, which will be present during a flood. If your goal is to get away from the flood and camp out where there is a decent water source, a $20 filter (if it's the right one) will do fine. However, near a floodzone, get something with a hollow fiber filter for sediment and bacteria or ceramic filter, an activated charcoal filter for chemicals (sometimes you can add on this stage like a prefilter (Katadyn Carbon Cartridge), and some good water purification tablets or a steripen to take care of viruses.

Hooked on Fenix: Thanks for the reply. I had not thought about gas, etc, in the water. Bodies, yes. I will say that I was thinking of a Sawyer filter more for tributaries as there are a lot of creeks around here. I want to eventually get a more involved set up to deal with the issues you mentioned. Either Outdoor or Backpacker mentioned a filter that took all comers, efficiently. I think it might go for $299, so maybe a Katadyn would be more reasonable for me.
I would hate to forget sunscreen. The summers here get pretty toasty. 95 is a break in the summer.

Regarding money -- having it in one's bank account is fine if you are evacuating to some safe location, but in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina the banks didn't have power so the people who stayed were stuck without. I remember reading a story about one local bank that opened up and distributed cash essentially on the honor system.