Although it will be a long time before incandescents are completely obsolete (if they ever do become completely obsolete), I think they are largely done as a mainstream technology. They will exist as a specialty product. But given the advantages of LED lights in terms of size, output, and efficiency, they are an endangered species when it comes to the kinds of lights most people use on a daily basis.
A good way to think of incandescents is like film photography. Almost NOBODY uses film anymore. And large manufacturers of film (like Kodak) are leaving the market. But there will always be a few people out there that like to shoot film. And film will continue to exist as a small, niche, specialty market for the few people out there who like to shoot film.
I think you have summed it up nicely here.
There are going to be those who cling to the incans, despite the runtime and output sacrifices...but, as a mainsteam light source, they will be going the way of the 8-track, the VCR, the Victrola, etc. A few affectionados will keep the flames alive, but, they will be largely irrelevant to the majority of the population. Even incan light bulbs for the home are being phased out, etc due to the wasted electricity, etc.
Maglight for example was going extinct, until they replaced the incan main line with LED's...and, suddenly, they are on the upswing. As soon as maglight abandoned the obsolete technology, they became a viable option for consumers.
They went from about 5 historical lumens with a hole in the middle, to ~ 600 current lumens w/o a hole in the middle for example, depending on which mag.