Cool, this is saying the same thing as the graph above, which we posted within a couple minutes of each other.
Non-rechargeable primary CR123 cells are rated for 3.0 V and ~1300 mAh, which is 3.9 Watt-hours. A pair of them would give about double that, 7.8 Watt-hours.
I have some AW 18650 cells that are nominally 3.7V and 2600 mAh, the energy in them is 3.7*2.6 = 9.6 Watt-hours.
Since the voltage is lower on a single 18650 than a pair of CR123 cells, a regulated driver driven by an 18650 will have to pull higher current to give the same power, which means you probably won't get 100% of that power out of the cell. So the runtime will be roughly the same as for a pair of 123 cells, assuming a regulated driver.
If the driver drops out of regulation and reduces current draw, runtime could be become longer on the 18650, but with gradually dimming light output.
On my Malkoff M60 lights which use a voltage buck circuit for regulation, I see a slightly higher output with a pair of CR123 or RCR123 cells than on an 18650, but the difference is not very much with fresh batteries. As the batteries discharge, the 18650 will drop out of regulation and get dimmer before dying completely, while the RCR123s will just suddenly go out without warning when the low voltage protection on one of the batteries kicks in. Primary CR123 cells don't have protection and will gradually get dimmer until they die.