Economy affecting flashlight industry?

[Haz]

I keep waiting to see new releases of lights, but it's seems to be slowing down, or am I becoming increasingly impatient?

I'm wondering given the slowdown in the economy, whether this will significantly slow the development of new flashlights, given that our hobby can be rather expensive.

Given that a cheapo $2 light from the supermarket will fulfil most peoples' needs to walk in the dark, are we still willing to dish out big sums of dough to purchase what we like?.

I'm seeing less impulse buying and more rationalisation, prior to purchase. This will make manufacturers less incline to research and develop new products, because the volume of sales may not be sufficient to support the cost of introducing a new line of product/s.

 

[MarNav1]

Very little feedback from SHOT compared to the usual hoopla, almost like Surefire was the only company with anything new. I think it's definately slow all over and getting slower. I've lost my job twice in less than 12 months myself. And the cheapo lights have their place as well.

 

[Haz]

That's interesting to know, if i get the opportunity to visit the US, i will definately like to time it, so i can visit SHOT as well. It sounds like the candystore for flashaholics.

Sorry to hear that you lost your job twice in the last 12 months. The economy is looking gloomy, and i do hope to see things pick up.

I was hoping to see more interesting lights come out in the new year, but still waiting. I am hoping it will provide the some stimuli to keep the economy rolling!

 

[fieldops]

I think the economy has touched most sectors. Even Walmart is slowed down. The reason they are holding their own is because people with less money shop there even more in bad times. Perhaps the same will be said for DX or Kai. Don't know. The common flashlights in stores probably are down as much as the rest of the retail sector. It's high end lights that will be down more IMHO. There are alot of public safety layoffs and budget crises. I suspect big flashlights will be down further on the list of priorities for many departments. Let's just hope all this doesn't last too long.

 

[Cydonia]

I'm only interested in true statistics, charts, graphs etc., (No kooky stuff) and yet it is looking scary out there.
I suppose I would be considered a Doom N' Gloomer to most...
I expect a lot of names in the flashlight industry to disappear this year. Big names that will put folks into a state of shock. Business conditions are deteriorating so rapidly that companies can hardly grasp what is happening. (That's a paraphrase of a quote seen in an article yesterday on the 5000 Microsoft layoffs) Again, no one wants to hear this sort of talk, so they burry their heads in the sand.
This is no mere recession... this is going to be just unbelievable. Since when has a recession come on like this... and been fought with such vigour and stimulus measures? The sooner you wake up and get prepared the better off you'll be. Depression greater than the Great Depression audio clips I recorded.

 

[jtr1962]

First to go in any economic downturn are companies producing things people want but most don't necessarily need. Good examples might be game consoles, huge TVs, GPSes, PDAs, luxury vehicles and, yes, high-end flashlights. I agree with Cydonia that "We ain't seen nothing yet" as far as this economy goes. Much like when the twin towers fell, once the top moved a few inches there was no stopping it from bringing down the entire building. At this point the heavy top end of the economy has already started moving downwards. No amount of government intervention or wishful thinking is going stop the rest of the economy from collapsing.

So in a nutshell, yes, the economy is going to affect the flashlight industry and a whole bunch of other things. I personally think 99 cent stores and places like Walmart will do well, but a lot of high-end stores with premium products will disappear. We're entering an age where we just can't afford frills any more. Whoever produces the best products at the lowest prices will come out a winner. I think here we're going to be seeing an increasing number of people modding cheap lights from Kai or DX rather than buying high-end lights. Cheaper that way, and in my opinion a lot more fun. Besides, with all these layoffs, lots of people will unfortunately have the time in the world to do mods.

 

[Badbeams3]

I could paint a very gloomy picture...but I`ll just say my guess is the worst is still ahead...possibly much worse than most imagine...with real problems starting around 2010~2012...and lasting to around 2025.

But yes, I`m sure you will see some flashlight companies slow down production...cut back. Maybe increase prices at first to make up for poor sales volume...then later drop prices in an effort to stay alive.

 

[LEDninja]

Read in the an old Toronto SUN The General Store has closed its doors.
Some stores of The General Store had carried Fenix and some older Nuwai from J2LEDflashlights under commission.

The article said The General Store originally deposited money collected from December sales into its supplier's bank accounts, then cancelled and withdrew the money. Most suppliers are artisans who sell through The General Store on a commission basis.
The company's law firm sent this message "As long as there is sufficient cash in the account, the CIBC will honour all 915 claims by its retail suppliers".
In addition to not knowing if/when they will get paid, the suppliers will have trouble recovering their unsold inventory. J2LEDflashlights should get their flashlights from the Toronto stores back fairly easily once the legalities are sorted out but they have flashlights out in Calgary as well.

AFAIK J2LEDflashlights online and eBay stores are still operating.
http://j2ledflashlight.com/
http://stores.ebay.com/j2ledflashlights

Any glitch in the manufacturing/retail chain can bring things to a halt even if the cause of the glitch is not flashlight related.

 

[cbxer55]

Here is your Dom and Gloom!
A daily showing of all the known announcements of layoffs.
It is going at an ever-increasing pace. Pretty soon no one will be left working if this keeps up.

LayOff Daily

 

[jtr1962]

This article doesn't exactly inspire confidence that we'll have a recovery any time soon either:

Americans saving more, spending less

The hard truth is that an economy based on consumerism was never sustainable long term. This is going to affect the flashlight industry, and every other industry. On the plus side, a lot of high-end lights are tools used by various professionals, not solely by hobbyists. Perhaps things won't be as bad for us as they might be for, say, those who are into computer games or luxury cars.

 

[brucec]

Yes, the economy is going to take some time to recover. Our entire financial system has collapsed and is being restructured like never seen before. I wouldn't go so far as to say we are going into another Grapes of Wrath style Great Depression, but it's going to take all of 2009 to find a bottom and convince ourselves it's for real.

I think our high-end custom flashlight makers will lose most of their sales from lower to middle income sources, but I think $500 for the affluent is do-able even in a faltering economy. It all boils down to the demographics and numbers.

I think medium sized companies like Fenix could probably pull through in the end. Unfortunately, they will probably have to pull back on R&D.

And I think the biggest thing after the macro-economy that will hit the flashlight industry is that Surefire announced something like 8 :eek: new models that look pretty kick-*** to me. All of these companies like Fenix, Nitecore, Eagletac, are running amuck because Surefire has been behind the curve on emitters. Well, it seems they are fixing that situation with a vengeance...which I would think would be really bad news to a lot of flashlight companies, especially drop-in makers.