Forward thinking: Use of LED's in 3 years time?

[Penguin]

Over the past couple years we've seen leaps and bounds in LED efficiency/technology. Gone are the days where the brightest flashlights consisted of multi-5mm arrays. Now cutting edge high-flux LED's have found their ways into mainstream electronics (LED-lit TV's, Monitors, Camera flashes.)

Even our cars were quick to adopt LED brake lights, now they're finding their ways to incorporated into the styling of the cars (Audi) and eventually replacing the headlights of a car (Lexus LS/Cadillac Escalade)

Even HID's weren't safe from the revolution as low pressure sodium bulbs are being replaced with high-flux arrays in several countries.

With the advancement of cutting edge LED tech, where do you see our once lowly Light Emitting Diode being utilized in 3 years time? (industries and downstream products)

 

[jtr1962]

I think the next major use of LEDs will be in streetlights. LED streetlights have made minor inroads in the last few years, but thus far no major city has done a wholesale replacement of ALL of their streetlights with LED. I predict within the next three years you'll see at least one major city, such as New York or Los Angeles, embark on such a program. This is one area where LEDs are just about there. All of the major issues have been solved. It's just a matter of getting a large installed base out there.

I'm honestly not sure about LED screw-base lamps. Sure, to a layperson this might be the next big use of LEDs. However, I think there are too many hurdles to be overcome, with heat dissipation, output, and price being the primary ones. I'm not sure these problems can be solved without a doubling in LED efficiency ( and that probably won't happen within 3 years ). What I do predict happening will be a gradual realization on the part of LED lamp designers that LED fixtures will be the way to go. The real question will be whether or not they can get the general public to buy into the idea of replacing an entire fixture, rather than just screwing in a lamp.

Finally, I think the concept of variable color temperature lamps will start to catch on in general LED lighting, especially if the industry moves in the direction of LED fixtures. The rationale here would be that this allows a retailer to only sell one part instead of several, while only marginally increasing price and design complexity ( mostly adding colored LEDs and active control circuitry ). I think variable CCT may even catch on for LED screw-base lamps. It just makes sense on many levels to try to sell one product to cater to all tastes.

 

[SemiMan]

Backlights for LCD monitors and Televisions will likely be the next "big" thing for lowly high powered LEDs.

Streetlights may have some short term setbacks with some resistance to cool white night time lighting en-mass. There are some that fear, perhaps rightfully, that it may have adverse effects on circadian rhythms.

I think the natural way around this is so called neutral white, or 4-4500K white. However, the efficiency is generally a bit lower which may slow adoption.

Either way, streetlights will be big in LEDs, just a matter of time.

Semiman

 

[Penguin]

Thanks for you input jtr, Semi

As for screw-in bulbs I think we're quite a ways away as well, unless production costs go down substantially, we probably won't see these for quite a few years. Fixtures built around LED use would probably make more sense in the near future.

Semi, LED's as a light source in TV's and monitors are already taking off, and i do agree with you about the color temperature of LEDs, I feel like that'll be the main issue when it comes to replacing traditional incandescent lighting.

I'm not sure if you guys have been following Cree's stock, but when they first came aboard the CPF, a share of Cree traded at ~18 dollars? I remember it closing at ~55 yesterday. I was discussing the LED industry with my colleagues, they too have to keep track of LED development, and one of them posed the question: Where LED's will be utilized next.

from cellphone keypads and screens to automotive use, we know that LED's are poised to eventually trickle down to almost all lighting, but to identify the next product to utilize LED's could be lucrative... I figured this would be the best place to ask, since where else but CPF would people understand and appreciate LEDs.

 

[LEDninja]

LED backlit LCD screens are already here. Current Apple MacBooks and iMacs have them as do some Panasonic TVs.

For minimum usable brightness LED fixed lighting bulbs now have 3 to 5 LEDs (PAR type go up to 9). A 1*3W bulb is $10 to $15 less than a 3*1W bulb but with only 1/2 the brightness. With the XP-G or newer LED, a 1*3W bulb would be the same brightness as a 3*1W XR-E at a significant reduction in cost. A lower cost entry point might make LED home lighting more mainstream.

Street lighting do not require high CRI. Using Quantum Dot based phosphors a warmer tint and higher efficiency is possible.

Beoing's new 787 Dreamliner will have LED interior lighting.

Boeing wastes no time giving passengers a new experience. As soon as you board the Dreamliner, you’re greeted by an open area just inside the door. The ceiling resembles a skylight, complete with blue LED lighting that mimics the sky.

The light is fairly standard during boarding and while cruising. During meals it is adjusted to warmer tones. Once you’re done eating and want to tilt the seat back and relax, the cabin can be bathed in a relaxing lavender hue. When it’s time to sleep, the lights are turned way down. But it’s how the crew wakes you that’s the best part of the Dreamliner’s lighting.

Instead of flicking the lights on and flooding the cabin in light, the cabin will brighten slowly, with the light transitioning from the purples and oranges of a sunrise to yellows, and eventually white against a blue sky. Boeing’s thought is mimicking the light schedule of your destination, some of the dreaded jet lag can be alleviated

Article with pictures here:
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/12/boeing-787-dreamliner-interior/

 

[znomit]

Beoing's new 787 Dreamliner will have LED interior lighting.

Article with pictures here:
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/12/boeing-787-dreamliner-interior/

Yeah, looks nice up front, but I bet they put sodium lamps in cattle class. :D

 

[bshanahan14rulz]

hard-to-access beacons, like on top of radio towers and big bridges and stuff.
Streetlights
recessed downlighting
car signal lighting and forward lighting

 

[JohnR66]

I was thinking of what will occur in the next decade. Three years comes and goes pretty fast.

I was thinking that 200 lumen per watt would be an impenetrable barrier, yet Cree has a 186 l/w power LED going. Perhaps in 3 years we will have a 200+ l/w device at 350ma. Warm white and 90+ CRI LEDs should be well above 100 in 3 to 5 years.

Cost seems to be one of the barriers now. Quality LED fixtures are expensive. If it weren't for this cost, LED use would be much more widespread. I'm disappointed to see that LEDs are used in a much higher percentage on new automobiles than they are. My parents bought a new minivan and outside the instrument cluster, there isn't a LED to be found.

 

[rmteo]

Whatever it is, utilization in flashlights will constitute a very small percentage (I would say a fraction of a percentage point) of the number of LEDs produced.