OK. I'm back and almost caught up. I want to fulfill my promises, and then HOPE to catch up with the actual topic of this thread. I'll start with Bill's opening post. Bill, you spent quite a bit of time finding and organizing all this info. I'm afraid that I won't do it justice, but I just couldn't live with myself if I didn't present you with the facts that fly in the face of Toyota's findings, and the common misperceptions involved in these equations. As I've already said, the first step in selling solar and/or EVs is to be aware of the facts, and not the prevalent "we don't want to make them" PR. So let's get started and see where we end up.
[ QUOTE ]
Although a significant marketing effort was undertaken for the RAV4-EV, we only sold about 300 vehicles a year.
[/ QUOTE ]This sums up the biggest lie (now, I'm not talking conspiracy here. Just lies) that Toyota publicly announced about the Rav4 program. I'll just give you the facts of the matter:
The Rav4EV program was to have lasted two years (according to the info on the Rav ordering web site). After eight months, all 700 units were sold, and the program was terminated early. How 300/year was extrapolated from 700 in eight months is beyond me. Since the program didn't last one full year, I'm not sure how any yearly numbers could ever be discussed.
"significan marketing effort?" NOT. There were about for magazine adds and four billboards. Total. If that cost them the same $millions as they've spend on the Prius effort, I'll eat my shorts. This doesn't even take into account that there were exactly 25 dealers in the country where the Rav could be purchased from.
Moving on...
Rav4 EV by the numbers:
1. ~300 Rav4 EV's sold/leased per year (approximately 1,500 units?).Covered above. A total of 700 were made, 700 were placed in eight months. I got one of the last ones, ordered in November of 2002.
2. Rav4 EV was $42-$44,000 list (2002) with a California rebate of ~$10-$12,000. Current Rav4 base price is $19-$20,000.Close enough. Mine cost me $29,000.
3. Rav4 EV Battery life (80% capacity) is approximately 5 years or 100,000 miles? Weight over 900 lbs.The most conclusive study on these has shown 10 years (thats as old as any of these things are!) and 150k miles.
4. Rav4 EV cost to replace a battery is more than the value of the vehicle?Yeah, this is one of my favorites, certainly. To make money, I could have purchased several of these vehicles at MSRP, thrown the car away, and sold the batteries for a profit! Yeah, that's the ticket.
5. A Rav4 at 25 mpg and $2.00/gal and 80,000 miles, that translates into roughly $6,400 in fuel costs. Rav4 battery change is 4x the cost with respect to current US fuel costs.Not sure why we talk about batter change in a vehicle that is expected to see 150k miles before that is needed. To be fair we need to add an ICE rebuild expense in there somewhere. And in 10 years, will the price of an equivalent pack be the same as today, or will prices drop as they have been for the past 10 years?
7. Cost to drive a Rav4 EV 25 miles (city/highway average) 0.4kWh/mile x 25 miles x $0.10 /kWh = $1.00 We are forced into Time of Use metering, making our off-peak charging power much cheaper than this (on the order of 3-4c/kWh). The penalty is that we pay MUCH higher rates for on-peak power. The cost to drive a Rav4EV from the grid is close to $2/100 miles. The cost to ME is a different story. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif
Here is the official word from Toyota in telling us how poorly the Rav4EV sold. These were the numbers presented at the March, 2003 CARB hearing to prove their point.
Toyota said they sold 18,000 Prius in 18 months and 213 RAV4 EVs in 6 months. Because of this, they concluded that there was no market for the Rav4EV. So, using ONLY their flawed numbers, let's see what the reality is, shall we?
18,000/18 => 1000 Prius per month
213/6 => about 35.5 RAV4 EVs per month
There are 1,200 Toyota dealerships in the US that can and do sell the Prius(according to
www.toyota.com) and the RAV4 EV was available at 25 dealerships so:
1000/1200 => about 0.8 Prius per month per dealer
35.5/25 => about 1.4 RAV4 EV per month per dealer (that offered them)
So, the RAV4 EV outsold the successful Prius by almost 2:1 on the basis of sales per month per dealer - and using Toyota's incorrect numbers.
Add to that, the RAV4 is much more expensive ($40,000 with some rebates available over time and the buyer pays up front and does the work to get the rebates) vs the Prius at $20,000. And how about the fact that no dealer that was not licensed to sell the Rav4EV knew which dealers DID have them. In fact, the toll-free Customer Service hotline at Toyota couldn't answer which dealers sold the Rav4EV. You seriously had to be on the "inside" to get this car. Our estimates is that of the 700 Rav4EVs being privately driven today, about 10 of those drivers were not already in the EV loop.
Further - Prius is a current model and better equipped (even the base model). You have a choice of colors and trim, etc. OH, and you can even test drive one (there were no Rav4EVs available for test-drives at 20 of the 25 dealerships that offered them).
So, the bottom line is that 213 vs 18,000 is true and VERY misleading. The reason I say "true" even though it is Toyota's flawed numbers is because there WAS a 6-month period where only 213 were sold. Interestingly enough, they took the (obviously) lowest selling 6 months (leaving the first and last months off) to make their point.
Man, I hate these games. The public hears that nobody wants the Rav4EV. The reality of it is that they sold them all 16 months earlier than expected... and left lengthy waiting lists at all dealerships.
Every couple of months somebody needs to more or get a bigger car or whatever. When the used Rav4EV goes up on the block, the sell for over $45,000. And that is AFTER all rebates. And for a used car. The cars are sold within seconds with no exceptions. Even the ones that have been in major accidents.
If you want to read a letter I wrote on this subject of EVs not having a market, you can find it here:
here. If you read the editorial to which I am responding first (linked near the top) it will make more sense.
OK, I'm happy to put all THAT info behind me now. Whew.