Is there a rule of thumb for the improvement progression on LED output over time similar to that used for computing power (which I believe is a doubling every 18 months)? And how reliable is this law expected to be as far as looking into the future?
I am guessing the history is much more limited for LED output than for computing power, and therefore a bit more of a stretch to apply history to future projections. Also I do not know that the fundamentals are the same as for computing. Seems that step-changes - i.e. fundamental "inventions" - are required for LED's, as contrasted to chips where technology/manufacturing improvements continue to drive the trend to cram more into less space. Just guessing - I am sure this is oversimplified.
Thoughts?
I am guessing the history is much more limited for LED output than for computing power, and therefore a bit more of a stretch to apply history to future projections. Also I do not know that the fundamentals are the same as for computing. Seems that step-changes - i.e. fundamental "inventions" - are required for LED's, as contrasted to chips where technology/manufacturing improvements continue to drive the trend to cram more into less space. Just guessing - I am sure this is oversimplified.
Thoughts?