You really can't begin to figure out lumens based on LUX readings of the hot spot. Now if someone could make a light box and take some readings off the total output of some Fenix lights and the Nitecore, it would give us a better idea of the total output and how it stacks up against the others. Then we could take a better guess at lumens.
The fact that the hot spot and spill are reading higher for the Nitecore than the P2D P4 is encouraging, especially in the spill, I think it was 94lux for the P2d, and 121lux for the nitecore. Without seeing the beam pattern it's still hard to tell. If the Nitecore has a larger hotspot and a large spill than the P2D, and both areas are reading higher on the LUX meter than the P2D, than we know there is a decent difference in lumens between the two. The Fenix P2D P4 on Turbo is supposed to be 135 lumens at the emitter, probably 100-110 lumens out the front.
I'll also throw in that the P2D should have a larger and deeper reflector than the Nitecore, but it's hard to tell without having one in hand. If this is the case, the P2D should have a tighter hot spot, and the Nitecore should have a larger hot spot, and maybe a larger diameter beam overall. Hopefully someone can let us know how the beam compares to the P2D. If this is the case, the Nitecore may well be doing 180-190 lumens at the emitter.