It is conceivable that thermal limiting could begin to kick in within 2-3 minutes. In Turbo mode it begins to have a subtle effect immediately, and if you don't have good airflow over the lamp it will eventually have a fairly big effect (up to 40%).
The thermal limiting sensor is right next to one of the LEDs, so it will see the heat minutes before the case feels warm. To tell whether it's die heating or thermal limiting, try your test while the aluminum part of the lamp is sitting in a bowl of water, face up (if this is practica) or find some other way to keep the lamp body very cool.
There are two thermal paths that could be at issue: LEDs to circuit board, and circuit board to body. If the first one is degraded, the LEDs will heat up more than desired. If the second, thermal limiting will be more limiting than usual and the lamp will not get as warm as it should even after 10-15 minutes. If this is the case, try to measure the total power the lamp draws after 20 minutes at room temperature in still air, and it should be around 4 watts.