Typewriters, Phone booths, and Records

Was just talking to a coworker about how obsolete floppies are. Even CD's for data are pretty dead given you can get a 1 gig flash drive (~1000 floppies!) for $20

Then I started thinking - my daughter will almost certainly never see a typewriter, phone booth, or record player except in museums or movies.

What else is there that will become obsolete in the near future?

Film based cameras?
Tape based camcorders?
Filament based light bulbs?

The film-based cameras are by some already considered outdated.

tom

I think things fall into two categories of obsolescence. One is where something simply is never used any more at all, and the other is where it falls out of common usage but is still used occasionally. Vacuum tubes are a great example of the latter. There are still made and used in very limited quantities, mostly by audiophiles who feel they sound better than solid state. Anyway, for the purposes of this thread I'll stick to the former definition, and just because something is obsolete doesn't mean we'll only see it in museums. We still have a few old record players and typewriters even though we'll probably never use them again. Then again, who knows? In a world where electricity is in short supply that old manual typewriter may one day be dusted off and put to use. Anyway, what do I think will become obsolete in the near future (let's say ten years)? Here's my list:

1) Incandescent lamps. They're already obsolete for small (less than ~50 lumens) lighting needs, and have pretty much been obsolete for interior lighting with the improved T5 and T8 tubes of the last decade. Sure, they have persisted for use in home lighting but this is in large part due to a construction industry which has insisted on putting light sockets instead of linear fluorescent fixtures in new construction. In any case, drop-in LED replacements for incandescents with none of the drawbacks of CFLs (and 2 to 3 times greater efficiency) are less than 5 years away. Auto makers are beginning to adopt LEDs even for headlights. It won't be long before Edison's invention has run its course.

2) Spinning disk data storage. As mentioned in the first post, solid state storage is already becoming viable for portable storage needs traditionally filled by spinning disks. As with everything else electronic cost will drop dramatically, capacities will increase many times, and eventually mechanical hard disks will have a run for their money. I'm personally giving this transition the better part of the next decade but eventually the only moving part in your PC will be the cooling fans (maybe). Perhaps lower powered but computationally powerful chips will enable us to get rid of even the fans within ten years.

3) Tape-based data storage. Already obsolete for the home user. My guess is solid state will make it obsolete for data centers within a decade.

4) Cash and checks. The long promised cashless society is almost here. Debit cards are pretty much filling the last remaining niche. Online money transfers also promise to eliminate writing traditional checks (they practically have for many already). Pretty soon all your money will just be a bunch of bits in some data center. I'd personally like to see the concept of money become obsolete in its entirety, but I don't think we'll become that advanced for a few centuries at least.

5) Most paper objects. There will soon be increasing pressure to use less paper, both to save forests and the energy used to manufacture and transport it. Eventually most if not all subscriptions to magazines, newspapers, and catalogs will be electronically fulfilled via online transfers. Affordable ultra-high resolution SED or OLED displays will enable us to read formerly printed matter without the attendant eye strain usually associated with reading on a computer screen. I'm sure books of some kind will still be made, but these will likely be special things like yearbooks, collectible editions, etc. Most run of the mill dime store novels will only be published electronically.

6) Compressor-based cooling. I'll admit that I'm going out on a limb here since commercial solid-state cooling devices haven't improved much in the last 40 years. However, lab developments in the last few years show that we can do much better. It's only a matter of time before we hit on something which can equal or better efficiency of compressor-based refrigeration at similar or lower cost. I think this will happen within a few years. If so, we'll cease to see compressor-based refrigeration before ten years are up.

7) Chemical batteries. Nanotechnology is radically transforming so many disciplines. I give it a decade at most before supercapacitors exceed the energy density of chemical batteries while matching or bettering them in cost. This development will be spurred on because there are so many compelling advantages of supercapacitors over chemical batteries-nearly unlimited cycle life, simple recharging algorithm, nearly instant recharge capability.

8) Internal combustion engines for ground transport. Here again I'm going out on a limb but a combination of improved energy storage via supercapacitors, an increased awareness of the geopolitical, health, and climatic implications of fossil fuel use, and a growing backlash against the oil producing nations will probably mean the end of commercial internal combustion vehicles, at least for ground transportation, before ten years are up. It'll likely take longer to come up with a substitute for air-based transport, but I'd say within 20 to 30 years we'll have one. My bet is on a combination of high-speed rail and maglev, or perhaps fusion-powered airliners (should we finally commercial fusion power generation).

9) Driving your car. I'll admit I'm skeptical of this happening completely within ten years, but I'd say it's a virtual certainly within 20 to 25. The aging population, increased driver distraction, the need to reduce congestion/safely increase running speeds, plus the current economic toll of accidents makes it a given that once the technology comes online driving will be a thing of the past. I'd say within a decade you'll at least have the option of not driving on some new vehicles which is why I added this to the list. Eventually you won't be able to drive, period, at least not on anything but a racing circuit.

10) Most types of retail stores. We're already seeing many businesses fold because they can't compete with online retailers. I think before another decade is out the only retail stores remaining will be those that sell perishable items, items too bulky to conveniently ship, or items which customers prefer to see in person before buying (jewelry comes to mind).

11) Retail checkout. When you shop for groceries or go to Home Depot within a decade all your items will simply be scanned and billed to you electronically without even taking them out of your shopping cart. The days of waiting on a line to pay will thankfully be over.

jtr1962... very in-depth and interesting views!!! Thanks for sharing!
john

I still got my 8 track tapes and player.

oooh I'd love to have a giant maintenance-free capacitor out back instead of all those lead acid batteries!

are we any where near having this as reality? the instant charge is appealing also; just one lightening strike should fill em up...

I feel LP's have a certain timeless charm and sound -- I just don't feel they have been replaced, sound-wise.. especially not with the crappy pod-sound.

and typewriters? I'm still looking for a Hermes from the early 70's to replace my lost one from college, am I too nostalgic? ..never know when an EMP's coming along..

Let me look around the house.

CRT based televisions ? (Already, most of the TVs I see in stores are flat panels)
Cassette Tapes (still have a lot)
Hmm, I still have a serial port on my computer
Corded Phones (most phones I see in stores are cordless now)
Pilot lights for water heater burners (eventually, all water heaters will have electric start, they are one of the few appliances that still use pilot lights)

While I think a lot of the things listed would be nice to replace in ten years or whenever, I tend to think it will take longer than that for most. Light bulbs. Builders are going to continue to use them for quite a while. Spinning disk storage, tape storage, anything to do with computers I really think will take longer than we expect. For disaster recovery purposes and backups, there really isn't much of an option yet that is readily available. Unless you are willing to pay through the nose for remote online storage. I started working as a computer programmer in the early 80's. Within a few years people were telling me COBOL would be obsolete soon along with main frames. Neither are obsolete yet today. As much as some would like them to be. Servers do not have the capacity to take over for a big mainframe yet. Getting closer, but not yet. COBOL is still mega popular! Heck, even the Assembler language I started out on is used at many places. The bank I just quit still uses it to do a LOT of their nightly batch processing because of the raw speed.

Corded phones. I always keep at least one around for power outages. Although, cell phones have changed that a lot. Cash and checks. My mother will never in her lifetime use a debit card. I still have to use them locally for many school things. I have to pay coaches, athletic departments, band boosters, etc and they won't take plastic anytime soon. Retail stores will also be around for a lot of clothing and other non perishables just like was said. People want to see those or try them on. In fact, many things people want to try out before buying. I want to hear any stereo equipment before I buy it. I would never buy speakers on someone else's recommendation. Every person hears things differently. So retail is here for quite a while.

I still have a turntable, hooked to my stereo and used within the last year. And a bunch of records since I used to dj with them. I still have a 35mm slr. I do plan to sell it within the next few months since I have not used it for quite a while. But the demand is still there for the model I have. And MANY photographers that use medium or large format have no other options.

Things never seem to change as fast as we think. So, save a link to this thread. Put an appointment on your calendar program for 10 years from now and let's see how these time capsule guesses compare to reality.

Okay, so my age is showing, but how about carbon paper and stencils, not to mention mimeograph machines???

Regarding typewriters, I lament their slow demise. I think typewriters still have a place--it is much easier and faster to stick an envelope or sheet of paper in a typewriter for quick typing of an address or other short information. Also, completion of some forms, especially multi-part carbonless ones, almost require a typewriter for a neat, more "professional" appearance.

And (sigh), when will original signatures become moot, replaced by fingerprints and/or eye scans for proving identity...?

It's difficult to find any technology that is completely obsolete. Usually, the older technology is replaced for common applications, while still being retained for a few specialized ones.

There is still a U.S. post office that sends its mail by mule.

Of all the forms of lighting technology ever invented, this may be the only one that is no longer used at all.

I have a certain like for vintage JVC brand ghetto blasters - these played cassette tapes long before CDs came out. And I still have a fair number of prerecorded cassette tapes from before I started using CDs extensively. Sure, some of the cassettes have degraded to an audible degree over the years (the highs will "go" first, so the music has somewhat of a muffled sound to it), but I still listen to them on one of these machines every now and again.

Typewriters...my favourite one was an IBM Selectric from the 1970s.

Charge cards...some people (like me) simply do not have a high enough income to qualify for one. Cash and money orders are course de'rigeur for me. I do have Paypal, but I opened the account before you needed to have a charge card...guess I got lucky there.

Slide rules are toast, replaced by inexpensive electronic calculators.

Air ships like the Hindenburg, but they may come back as effective replacements for cell phone towers.

Penmanship is almost a lost art. Pens and pencils have undergone a huge shift in the way they're used. The postal system has changed into a package delivery system and a means to send out junk mail and bills. Letter writing is rarely practiced, replaced by instant email.

Cigarette consumption may be illegal in several decades. Already, many smokers are publicly shunned.

Morse code and telegrams are toast, killed off by email.

Broadcast television transmitters are effectively obsolete, replaced by satellite and cable TV.

> 4) Cash and checks. The long promised cashless society is almost here.
> Debit cards are pretty much filling the last remaining niche... Pretty
> soon >all your money will just be a bunch of bits in some data center.

Maybe in Europe where they have data protection laws, but not in the US. Under the current American system, any time you move money electronically a record is made of the transaction. This record belongs to the company. They can aggregate it and sell it to anyone they want. Right now this information is scattered and inconvenient to assemble, so this is usually only done by professional investigators. This is fading fast.

If my money is just bits in a machine somewhere I don't control it. I have no privacy. Someone else can make rules about how I use it and all I can do is play by their rules. Why do I want strangers controlling my money?

There are a lot of people who have good reason not to want strangers looking over their shoulder every time they spend a dollar. When they pull you over for a tailight, do you want the local LEOs to have your name on a list of everyone who's ever bought something at the local head shop? Do you want your insurance company to know exactly how much of your diet consists of Cheetoes & beer? Do you want potential landlords checking up on what magazines you subscribe to? Potential employers checking up on your liquor consumption, down to the glass? Your church finding out about that tentacle porn stuff you received as a practical joke, but the "joke" part isn't in the system?

They are having trouble with this down inside the beltway in DC right now. Before you can work for the incumbent administration they check to see what kind of political donations you and your company have made lately. If you gave bucks to the wrong party you don't get hired.

Just look at all those poor *******s on the TSA no fly and extra inspection lists. Unless you're a senator, once you get in the system, you stay in the system, apparently 'till you die. There will be financial equivalents to those lists.

What about the millions of people who engage in legally frowned on activities? If you were to stop printing cash they'd just switch over to gold. Outlaw gold again and they'll use silver.

I'm not ready for a cashless society. If I don't own my records I never will be.

I find it interesting to hear the passionate defense of the obsolete not because it's so terribly an inescapably practical, but because those mounting the defense can't imagine it being gone or because it was so personally signifigant to them.

Typewriters are on the way out since most of what they did was type letters. Filling out forms by hand is gradually slipping away, and it's more convenient to compose a letter with a word processor since almost every computer has one. Keep the Selectric around if you enjoy using it, but just don't expect to be able to buy a replacement.

The LP and turntable will probably stick around for a while, but it's never going to be much more than a plaything of the nostalgaic and the audiophile. If I have to listen to another audiophile rant against "mass-fi" I just might say something rude...

The 35mm SLR camera will linger on for a bit, but it's hard to say how much longer. Professionals are defecting to high-end digital SLRs. It took the digicam makers a long time, but they finally developed full-frame sensors so you can keep using those same SLR lenses. The market for traditional photo development is shrinking fast - took companies like Kodak way too long to get over the nostalgia of developing negatives and they lost market share to faster-moving upstarts that realized there was a market for prints from digital.

Telegrams were killed off by cheap long-distance phone service.

I agree that we need data protection laws in the US. Your bank records should be between you and your bank. We also need to make companies that deal with personal and financial data responsible for their security - that will sove the "identity theft" problem in a hurry.

PhotonBoy said:

Cigarette consumption may be illegal in several decades. Already, many smokers are publicly shunned.

Click to expand...

And rightly so, but I doubt cigarettes will ever be completely illegal. Marijuana already is, and look how effective that's been. I can see cigarettes being banned from use anywhere but in your home and in your car. And even in your home or car, still not allowed while children or non-smokers are present. I'm sure marijuana will go the same way eventually, just not in the car.

I hate standing in line behind someone at a store when I'm in a hurry while they write out a check. A debit card is sooooo much faster. At the very least they could have all the information filled in so all they have to do is fill in the amount, and have their check guarantee card(often a debit card in and of itself!) and ID ready instead of digging around in a handbag for five minutes for them both.

:buddies:

I've still got my old Dual turntable and a maybe a hundred worn out albums. And, somewhere around here is a well used Brother portable typewriter. It produced many a writing assignment in high school and college. I remember using it like a laptop while sitting in the car.

Geoff

Already gone and I miss it - the dial telephone. There was something about dialing a phone that was so much more satisfying than punching buttons.

On the chopping block seems to be analog gauges in cars, although I think these will survive in sports cars. Do they still make a car with a mechanical odometer?

GalvanickLucifer said:

Already gone and I miss it - the dial telephone. There was something about dialing a phone that was so much more satisfying than punching buttons.

Click to expand...

I used to have a rotary dial telephone...had one up till October 2004 anyway. There's just something about putting your finger in the hole, moving it across the front of the telephone, and hearing that satisfying "whiiiiiiiiir" sound when letting it go. That's what comes to mind when I hear somebody say "dial a phone". It isn't pushing buttons; it's actually dialing.

Ken_McE said:

I'm not ready for a cashless society. If I don't own my records I never will be.

Click to expand...

Believe me, I share your concerns. The way to do a cashless society is to basically put your cash transactions in a data base which nobody outside of the data base operators and you have access to. The no access clause should especially include all levels of government. Also, cash transactions should simply state the amount and time they occurred. No need to keep a record of what you bought. One thing that always bothered me about a cashless society is the fact that the government could potentially know if you give the kid next door $20 for mowing your lawn, and then levy self-employment and income taxes on him. The concern could be eliminated if we were to stop taxing income. Perhaps that's what it will ultimately take to foster universal acceptance of a cashless society-eliminate the income tax worldwide and constitutionally forbid it from ever being reinstated. A good part of the economy, both legitimate and illegitimate, operates on cash. Since this part of the economy is as essential as the part that operates above board any changeover to a cashless society must take steps to make sure that the underground economy continues to operate unfettered.

I still see rotary dial phones once in a while. The church we held our scout meetings in still has them. They will probably work for a long time and the church does not spend money it doesn't have to.