its gonna be a long time. if ever. since lumileds is the "sole" source for luxeons, and they are at least 2 years ahead of any competitor (a guess). i can't see the real consumer market see even 1 watts soon.
the real consumer market being home depot, walmart.
i'd expect to seen chinese ufo-like 1 watts in walmart WAY before luxeons or at the same time.. basically the luseons need to be less than $2-3 per piece. $5 or more per LED won't make it into that market.
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but really the true market for luxeons is the "specialty markets" that are for enthusiasts, and i'm not talkin flash-a-holics. basically i'm talking REI customers, emergency personel, etc... and thats where we have been seeing them and where the best lights will be for the forseeable future basically in the $20-50 range. and thats a perfect range for the chinese to get into.. for their US competitors are actually in the $40 - Infinity range..
and seriously, i don't think that we will see consumer lights for another reason. heat. the consumer market is flooded with cheap *** <$5 2-d lights made of the cheapest plastic and cost <$1 to make. and any real luxeon needs some metal. I personally won't buy or mod any luxeon based project without a nice sink and a full metal body.
so i guess to me, luxeons aren't even in the consumer market yet.. consumer = <$10