I've only just now had the time to read through this thread and digest it. I'm interested in all the ideas here, especially since there is such a dearth of good commercial taillights. Until I found the Planet Bike Superflash a few months ago, I was using a Cateye TL-LD1000, which worked, but was not very bright, and wasted light pointing straight off to the sides. The Superflash is the brightest commercial rear light (except for the extremely expensive NiteRider and DiNotte, which both require separate battery packs), and I'm fairly satisfied with it for now.
I don't have a car, and my regular commute to work is 20 miles round trip, plus riding wherever else I go for shopping, errands, and activities with friends, etc. I do a lot of my riding at night, probably half or more, in Austin, where the motorists are careless and inconsiderate.
I've been designing a
complete DIY bike electrics system, including a headlight and taillight, so I've been giving a lot of thought to what kind of lights are best. I've been thinking about where the cars are in relation to my bike in every circumstance on the road, and thinking about the light distribution pattern of headlights and taillights on cars.
I'm surprised at how many people seem to think it's a good idea to have light blasting all over in every direction. In relation to your bike, cars on the road are always going to be inside about a 10° angle vertically, and although cars are in a 360° angle horizontally, the ones that need to see you are either behind or in front of you. In fact, when you're riding on a straight road with no intersections or side roads, the only place where cars are that need to see you is inside about a 10° angle horizontally from the rear. But at intersections and side-roads, the oncoming traffic and the cross-traffic has to see you, so you need some light pointing forward in about a 40° angle horizontally. And the traffic behind you is a little more spread out at intersections, so you need light pointing backwards at maybe a 30° angle. These are estimates, but the general idea is that you only need to point light to the places where cars are actually going to be, and any light pointed outside that is wasted. Most commercial, and even most DIY lights, have round beams, either narrow for long throw, or wide for good flood. The narrow ones are too narrow - cars that are not straight in front or behind can't see you, and the wide ones waste half their light pointing up in the sky or down at the ground, where no cars are.
Looking at headlights and taillights on cars (at least the new ones - old ones were a lot sloppier in their beam patterns), they are designed with the type of elliptical beam that points light in about the angles I just described - about 10° vertically, and about 50-60° horizontally forward and about 20-30° horizontally rearward. Since they're based on bright halogens with reflectors, there's often some spill light much wider than that, but the focused light is in that elliptical beam pattern, which is exactly where it should be for visibility to other traffic.
So, the elliptical optics for LEDs are a perfect choice for bicycle lighting. They distribute the light in a pattern that puts the brightest light in the places where cars will be, and very little gets wasted pointing at the sky, at the ground, and to the sides. My lights are designed with 4 white Crees in the front with Carclo optics - two 10° optics for me to see the road, and two 10x41° optics for traffic to see me. In the rear I'll use 1 red Cree (about 80lm at 600mA) with the same optic, which produces a 14x37° pattern with the red LED. The light on my ceiling (guessing at lux with my eye) from the red Cree is about twice as bright as the light from the Superflash, but spread out extremely wide - like having 10 Superflashes all pointed in a fan-type array.
My lights are on the "test bench" now (my floor) and I'll be building them in the next week or 2. I'll be posting here with my progress, with beamshots so you can see what it looks like. I'll be using copper end caps as housing, and a Li-Ion battery pack in a water bottle for both front and rear lights, so the housing and battery aspects are not at all like what you're looking for. But the beam pattern issues are the same for any light, and I think a single red LED with a good elliptical optic will look as bright to a motorist as a car brake light at the same distance.
I don't plan to have my rear light blink - I'll have a high and low steady mode only. I'll put my Superflash on my helmet and will probably leave that flashing. I don't think flashing rear lights are really that great - I think that became the norm because when faced with the dimness of old 5mm LEDs, it was the only way to make them noticeable enough. Cars have never used flashing rear lights; they just use lights that are bright enough in the first place. As Martin said, if a whole country (Germany, and actually a lot of Europe) has decided you don't need flashing rear lights, maybe you don't.
Sorry for such a long post. Hope all my rambling thoughts are helpful in your search. Maybe if you got 3 or 4 Superflashes and arrayed them so they make a nice elliptical beam, you'd be set. But that would blow your budget, and you'd have to keep track of 6-8 AAA batteries, and it's still only about half as bright as a red Cree with an elliptical beam. If you can figure out some acceptable way to house a Cree and optic and batteries, then you could wire a cheap blinky controller to a Bucktoot or something, and you'd be set. Some company really needs to make this commercially.
Alex