I think I know what Apple is going to do!

LEDninja

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I came across a couple of articles on the Forbes website.

1) Those micro-PCs cost between $250-$499.
2) Wired.com booted one of them with OSX. Apple asked wired.com to remove the article and wired.com complied.

Apple's sales & marketing department must be tearing their hair out.
If Apple comes out with a sub $500 MacNetBook it will steal market share from the more profitable full size MacBooks.
If Apple does not come out with a sub $500 MacNetBook people would just buy Acer, Dell, XO etc instead of more profitable full size MacBooks. Wired.com's removal of how to boot a netbook with OSX would only slow not stop MacAddicts from installing OSX.

Reference:
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...15/forbes_netbook_090419/20090419?hub=SciTech
5. For a while now, people have been wondering why Apple doesn't enter the so-called micro-PC market, with a super small laptop suitable for surfing the web and emailing and so on.

6. The new version of OS X--Snow Leopard--will not have any new bells and whistles--nothing like time machine or spot light or dashboard, but rather will be a meaner, leaner, slimmer, more efficient version of Leopard. The name even announces this fact!
 

js

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Very interesting, LEDninja. I didn't know that about the wired.com thing. Interesting. But I'm not sure that Apple is so worried about a MacNetBook stealing sales from the full size macbooks. You may be right, but it doesn't seem to me like a concern for Apple.
 

binky

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If Apple does not come out with a sub $500 MacNetBook people would just buy Acer, Dell, XO etc instead of more profitable full size MacBooks.

Okay, wait. It has always been the view of those in the press to view an existing market that Apple's currently not in, and wonder when Apple will enter the market. They keep making the mistake that the black-brick object of the market, whether it's a PIM, phone, laptop, or cheap computing device, whatever, that when Apple enters the market they're going to have a tough time replicating existing box 'X' by putting their own skin on it and selling it with the obligatory Apple Markup.

But that has never been what Apple has done in the past. It has happened so very many times over & over that it's shocking that the NYT, WSJ, and other media keep bringing up the issue in those terms.

It's in Apple's business interest to sell hardware. To do so, they have consistently shown that their preference is to design something different enough with something "special" that customers feel compelled to buy it. That has never been just a cool-looking skin.

There is absolutely no evidence by inductive reasoning that we should expect Apple to have any interest in simply delivering a NetBook brick like all the rest that simply runs OS X. Apple's sales & marketing wouldn't be tearing their hair out. The existing market for NetBook offers Apple zero competitive advantage if they were to simply load their OS into some cheapo NetBrick, paint an aluminum skin around it and slap an Apple logo onto it.

It has never been that Apple simply offers their version of the same thing, but it just happens to run OS X. They're in the game to sell hardware. If their OS were good enough alone to sell the hardware then dumping the OS onto any whitebox junkbox would make it a compelling Apple product, but imagine doing that. It's not enough, is it? I mean, it's a fine OS but so is Vista Ultimate (with OneCare psst). So is Linux for that matter. Why go Apple, then? There needs to be more to the recipe and that's where the integrated design of the OS & hardware reviewers keep missing the mark.

It's not just that Apple gets to design the hardware and OS together & keep it from crashing that compell people to buy the product. That's not it at all either. As much as they like to teae MS about it, Apple's OS X has its share of grey-screen "kernel panics" and it DOES freeze, with their own stupid products such as Safari being the worst offenders causing the freezing.

To get people to buy their products they've been offering:
1. integrated mechanical & asthetic design
2. hardware that offers some some new or emerging feature.
3. a user interface that, as closely as possible, allows the user to intuit their way to accomplishing their task.

The OS not the key. The aluminum skin is not the key. Controlling the OS and hardware together is not the thing either. Identifying an emerging market is not Apple's game either.

Finding an existing market where they can improve the user interface enough and adding some cool new features to make it a really compelling sale -- That's their target and they've said so. Steve Jobs has said so. Tim Cook has said so. But the papers & media, well, they keep missing the point.

Soo... Apple OS on a $500 NetBook. No. At least not on what we now consider "a NetBook". No profit or Advantage to Apple in that. So I doubt they're tearing their hair out.
 

js

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binky,

Great post!

I certainly agree that when (or IF) Apple enters the "net book" market, they are going to try to redefine it and try to create a product that is innovate enough that people are willing to pay a premium for it.

And I certainly agree that so many people and organizations keeping putting things in terms that ignore the central game plan of Apple, Inc.

But, I personally think that OS X is indeed something special, and I would point out that there are a lot of "Hackintosh's" out there, and there is a significant minority to which this appeals.

I'm not one of them, but I do "get" it.

Further, in my experience, the combination of controlling the hardware and the OS (together with a just-plain-superior OS) has indeed lead to a virtually crash free setup. The ONLY time one of my Macs has ever crashed was when I installed a third party SATA PCI card in it. This is in sharp contrast to my experiences with Windows machines.

Anyway, whatever, back on topic: I pesonally think that if Apple does enter this market that they will indeed come up with an amazing, intuitive, easy to use, efficient, brilliant touch interface for it. I think that it will run OS X. And I think it will command a premium price. And I think that it will not fear competition from hackintosh netbooks, nor will Apple fear taking sales away from the Macbooks.

We shall see.
 

binky

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Thanks, js. I re-read my post and geez I sounded grumpy. Sorry 'bout that.

I happen to agree that OS X is something special, so I'm completely "drinkin' the Kool-Aid," and there's so much about it that would get ME to buy a whitebox with OS X over another OS, but I guess I was proposing that I don't know if it would be enough to help Apple sell enough hardware and win people over. On top of that, these differences are all over the place in the OS, there are zillions of small things that only seem to be itemizable but nobody can seem to summarize. I haven't yet seen any really good summary of that difference, at least. Like, in one or two sentences "what's compelling about a Mac over anything else." Maybe it's out there. I don't want to sidetrack this thread with that, though, and trying to get at that has started many a flaming thread so I'm now going to run away fast from that. Plus, I'm drunk on the Kool-Aid so my opinion is only that -- my opinion.

I agree that it is a special advantage that Apple controls development of both the OS and the hardware together. But to me if Microsoft were to own Dell I haven't seen in the past any evidence that they'd work to wield that toward anything really compelling. Just a lower-cost box with steadily, rather predictably increasing feature set. I think if Apple were run by MBA dweebs or even just by engineers, they'd be driven toward entering only existing marketspaces, copying an existing product and trying to advance their dominance by lowering production costs and just adding features. But that would not move Apple-specific hardware. I think that's why Microsoft has failed in the past and I hope they stop doing that, especially because there are so many talented people working there. This habit was especially evident with the Zune because we could all see it from hopeful inception to flaming failure. Microsoft controlled both the OS and the hardware in that case. This isn't to say that their recipe for dominating a market doesn't work. With 95% of the market share or whatever it is these days it obviously does work. It just doesn't produce something that'll move hardware for one company and one company only.

Nobody cared that Microsoft offered a "me-too" product, even though its failure didn't seem to have anything to do with lack of crashes or incompatibility with the laptop/desktop machine. It just had absolutely nothing compelling about it so nobody was willing to shell out for a virtual clone of another company's product no matter how stable it was. It had to offer something compelling.

I think Apple continually hangs their business model on offering some creative new way to let the user get done what they're wanting to do in an even easier way than the existing market offers. The MP3 player market was alive & booming when the iPod came along, but it was a PITA to do the MP3 conversion and the darned software loaders were junk. You're absolutely right that it took Apple's hardware & software control to allow them to come up with the iTunes/iPod feature set.

Ditto the iPhone. Ditto the laptop. But they keep adding new & creative ways to allow the user to get their stuff done. I think Apple cannot move hardware without that. That's what I think is the special part. That's all I was trying to propose.

So to get way back to your original posts -- I think you & I are in complete agreement. What I hear you saying is that Apple, if they're going to make a new product, will start by trying to solve some of the annoyances & wishes of that market. They'll move when they can do something that'll advance the existing market and lock in enough unique features to make it a really compelling sell that moves their own hardware. Nearly by virtue of that business requirement it cannot be playing in the price range of the existing marketspace but instead just enough above it that they can offer the exciting feature set that lets users get done the objective of that marketspace only by using the Apple hardware.

Phew! Sorry to be so wordy. I don't expect anyone to read all that blather. I just had to get it into electrons, though.

PS: Forgot to mention -- I proudly wear my "Power Computing -- Moment historique!" T-shirt when I trim my hedge. It was an exciting time, but it might have been a bad business move to offer the OS on other platforms. Though, at the time Apple wasn't totally playing fair either, so there was a lot more to it. We (meaning you included, I presume) remember the former Steve Jobs reign and he wasn't always viewed in such golden light as now as he proceeded in the '80's & early '90's to render ruinous some very helpful 3rd party software & hardware vendors.
 
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js

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binky,

Another really great post! Thanks!

I definitely think I understood your driving point with your first post, but this post expands upon, clarifies, and drives home the point even more. I totally agree with you. And I really appreciate you pointing out that despite past history and its examples of Apples modus operandi, pundits and critics all seem to be "in the box" in their mindsets and it makes what they say fairly beside the point.

I'm way drunk on the OS X coolaid, so I should probably not try to sum anything up either. One thing I will say is that it's been a 64 bit OS for a long time now so you don't have the 4GB RAM addressing limit of XP (which is really 3 'cause 1 other GB is used by the OS for other stuff, IIRC). To me, that's a serious downside of XP, although I hear there is a 64 bit version of XP?

Anyway, whatever, I agree it's a bad idea to start discussing the merits of operating systems. Guaranteed flame war. In fact, I shouldn't have said that OS X was a "just plain superior OS". I should have just said that it's a great OS, without trying to say whether it was worse or better than any other OS out there. In other words, "I like it". And that's all I want to go with here in this thread.

Anyway, moving on, I am really excited to see if Apple does release a touch interface 9 inch size netbook type deal. The iPod touch has impressed me in so many ways that I have high expectations for future products from Apple. I'm sure I'll be let down in one way or another, in fact! But that's OK. I get over that quickly.

OK. Cutting myself off . . .
 

js

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Thanks for the link LEDninja!

I was thinking of this thread the other day because an objection raised to the touch interface was the inaccuracy of a fingertip--it's huge, how do you get a text insertion point correct? I had imagined that they would use a magnifying bubble that would appear just above your finger tip.

Well, would you believe it, they are ALREADY DOING that on the iPod Touch / iPhone. I was replying to an email the other day and left my finger pushing in the text window just a bit too long, and lo and behold, what did appear but a magnifying bubble with a blow up and text insertion point. I then moved my finger around and the text insertion point moved with it, very precisely.

heh. Who knew? Cool, eh.
 

LuxLuthor

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I with I would have "grown up" with or switched over to Apple/Mac, but I'm so locked into my ongoingly duct-taped Winblows and PC platform in terms of software that I know I'm going to keep putting up with it. I so relate to those wonderful Mac vs. PC commercials, and am always laughing at how they nailed PC, and "down with M$ Winblows!!!" Then I sit there stewing for a few seconds when I remember that I'm the PC dork.
 

js

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Some of those Mac vs. PC commercials are brilliant and highly enjoyable. Laugh out loud funny! My wife and I are always excited when a new batch of them come out. No question.

But . . .

They aren't exactly true. My brother switched over to Mac from PC and it wasn't the experience he was hoping for, to say the least. PC's aren't the difficult to use and virus and spy-ware laden units that the mac commercials make them out to be. I've managed to keep Windows machines running stablely and smoothly for months and months. And switching from one platform to another (as you point out) is always painful, no matter which direction you go.

And I sure do envy PC people's choice when it comes to graphics cards and game software! Not that I'm into games, but I don't have much choice of software and video cards for my macs in any case.

And, in terms of bang for the buck you can make a good argument that PC's rule. You do tend to pay a premium for Apple products.

And, finally, once Windows 7 comes out, things will be looking better for the PC side of the house, I suspect.

All computers have their issues. None of them is "simple to use" I don't think, no matter what the mac commercials imply. I swear that my in-laws can render even a mac barely functional within a day or two. I have no idea how they manage to get things into the states that they sometimes do. But that's another story!
 

binky

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None of them is "simple to use" I don't think, no matter what the mac commercials imply.

Remember when things were to intuitive that even if you wanted to clone your bootable Mac, all you had to do is select everything you wanted then drag it to an external drive and you've got a working copy of your bootable Mac? Those were the days... Now everything worthwhile is hidden and in dot-files. What a pain. I don't see that level of simplicity returning any time soon. Of course, somewhere along the line back then we also got bogged down with Extension conflicts, system freezes and that annoying little bomb with the fuse sparking from its top. Maybe the past stuff wasn't so great after all.
 

Benson

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I with I would have "grown up" with or switched over to Apple/Mac, but I'm so locked into my ongoingly duct-taped Winblows and PC platform in terms of software that I know I'm going to keep putting up with it. I so relate to those wonderful Mac vs. PC commercials, and am always laughing at how they nailed PC, and "down with M$ Winblows!!!" Then I sit there stewing for a few seconds when I remember that I'm the PC dork.

(Full disclosure: I'm not exactly a big Apple fan; in fact, Apple is not too far above MS in my book. I'm also somewhat of a geek; I like to think I can see (and compensate for) the difference between "easy for me to use" and "easy to use", but if I err, you can guess which way. ;))

I see some of the commercials as cheap jabs, but some of them do make pretty fair points about problems with Windows. Of course, Apple offers one answer to those problems, and I don't say it's a bad one (especially since OS X), but if you're locked into your existing machines, you could try running another OS alongside, so you can boot into Windows when you need a Windows app, and run something less irritating the rest of the time.

Assuming you're not up for carefully selecting OS-compatible hardware and violating the EULA to run it on a non-Apple system, you might check out Linux. A number of rather end-user friendly distributions are available these days, and even the more traditional ones really aren't hard to use.
 

js

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Indeed. I keep hearing great things about Fedora. We use scientific linux here at the lab, when we use linux.
 

THE_dAY

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Ok, this is my take on what Apple will do regarding the iPhone this summer:

1) they will keep the current 8GB model, same specs, price will be lowered to $99 to attract mass market.

2) they will introduce an updated new model with very similar look and slightly updated hardware in 16GB and 32GB.

3) the new 16GB and 32GB will have improved camera hardware/software as well as video recording capabilities.
Will also include newer faster processor, double the current RAM, and a magnetometer.
Screens will stay at 320x480 resolution.
Battery life will be 1.5 times the current model's.
 

js

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THE dAY,

Thanks for your observations! And we can definitely talk about the iPhone. No problem.

But . . .

You did see that this thread is about the 9" netbook with touch screen that Apple is rumored to be working on? Something which it looks like I figured out before any rumors started circulating.

Still, the thread title does lend itself to your post, so, no problem! Just wanted to mention the topic if you had any thoughts on that.
 

THE_dAY

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I personally think the Netbook is definitely coming, whether it's this year or the next I don't know?
A big plus would be porting the AppStore to it giving it a great start.
Yes the apps would take up a small part of the screen but this is where you can have multiple apps running on the screen at once.

There was some leaked info on Snow Leopard stating that it might have a 3g wireless built right in. link

This would be great as one would be able to have connection anywhere.
Hopefully the data plans would be affordable enough as to entice the average consumer.

The funny thing is, now with Skype and all the others, this netbook could be considered a giant iPhone.
 

Dan FO

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I have the MacBook Pro and a 1 week old aluminum MacBook and like them booth better than anything I have ever used. Having said that we will be seeing a Mac Netbook, the market is screaming for it and I can feel it in my bones. ;)
 

da.gee

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That's hilarious. I love the pricing on the two models. So Apple.

Everything is just a few hundred clicks away!
 
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