I would sure like to see what the 4680/46800 cell can do.
I did some
theorycrafting a while back:
Spitballing, but assuming average Ah/cm™ relative to other high-density 18650/26650/21700 cells, I guesstimated
25Ah in that formfactor for high-density cells.
The initial peak current estimate for a potential high-power cell using a similar metric (peak current per cm³) relative to other high-power 18650/26650/21700 cells was ... almost certainly unrealistic. Even scaling by the surface area:volume ratio relative to 18650 the peak current value was still seems unreasonable.
Reality is that any 4680s produced for Tesla will be principally high-density cells. High-current versions on the same order as 18650/26650/21700 seem a bit unlikely to emerge - the low surface area:volume ratio is not conducive to heat removal.
2C would be a good discharge rate for a high-density version, meaning that such a cell could hypothetically spit out approximately
180 watts for 30 minutes. I could certainly handle a stubby ~1D formfactor light with ~90Wh on tap - even a 1C peak discharge would be more power than most high-power cells can deliver and that level of discharge is unlikely to stress the 4680 very much. 2 in series would be
spectacular.
I've seen some sources bafflingly claim 9Ah for the 4680, but that would be a
huge step backwards on density, the exact opposite of Tesla's goal with a mere 31kWH pack (960 * 3.6V * 9Ah) - merely ~2x a 21700's capacity while being ~5x times the volume. Reversing
Sandy Munro's math, I get slightly more than 25Ah:
- Model 3/Y 21700 : 75kWH pack / 4416 cells = 16.68 Wh / 3.6V = ~4.7Ah
- Model 3/Y 4680 : 87kWk pack (16% more range = 16% more energy) / 960 cells = 90.63 Wh / 3.6V = ~25.2Ah