D.E.F. (Adblue) and d.e.f. chip shortage

[Hooked on Fenix]

I've been reading about this up coming problem for our shipping and distribution system. Due to the computer chip shortage caused by the coronavirus shutdowns, there is a diesel exhaust fluid and d.e.f. chip shortage. Newer diesel trucks require these chips and fluid to limit emissions. The chips and fluid are tied into the trucks' computers. They will not run without them. China is limiting exports of the fluid and keeping it for themselves. If the chips stop working in a truck, the truck won't work. If the truck runs out of d.e.f. (Adblue), it might not work or go really slow. I'm sure there is some way to work around this, but it's in the law that the trucks need to have these emissions reducing products to legally drive. This has the potential to bring our transportation and distribution system to a grinding halt if something isn't fixed quickly. Just wanted to give you guys a heads up. Prep and stock up now. I hope this turns out to be nothing, but this could cause things to get bad really quick.

Here's a video explaining the situation:

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

I found out this could be worse that previously thought. The Adblue shortage comes from a worldwide urea shortage. Urea is required for nitrogen based fertilizers for growing crops (China is hoarding their supply to bring their prices down.). That could cause a global food crisis next year. So not only will the trucks not be able to bring the food to market, but there won't be fertilizer to grow the food, and the diesel powered equipment to plant and harvest it won't work. Garbage trucks run on diesel too. Also 98% of first responder vehicles in the U.S. are diesel, and unless they are more than 11 years old, they require Adblue/d.e.f. as well. So imagine what happens if an ambulance, fire truck, or police car runs out when needed. They would go 5 mph (limp mode) until the engine was turned off. Then they would no longer work. This could be catastrophic if someone doesn't find a solution fast.

 

[jtr1962]

Ugh, this doesn't sound good.

Short term, the US needs to supply its own urea. Long term, go with electric trucks and start using more sustainable farming practices which use less or no fertilizer. Nitrogen fixing bacteria can help with the latter.

 

[jtr1962]

BTW, this will also affect diesel locomotives. Basically, if it gets really bad there will be a lot fewer options to move freight.

 

[scout24]

I posed this question on another forum, figured I'd fly it here too. I wonder if the military has the same requirement to use DEF as the civilian world. 99.5+ percent of military ground vehicles and equipment (pumps, generators, etc.) run on diesel since the big 1980's push toward a "one fuel" military supply chain. Since most of their vehicles have civilian adapted drivetrains, it wouldn't suprise me if they have the same DEF requirements. FYI- there is no hardware/software workaround for the sensors, or truckers and farmers would have found it and been using it by now.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

Combat vehicles for the military have an exemption to the epa regulations that allow them to avoid having to be built to use Adblue. Military vehicles oversea often run on a jet fuel where Adblue is unavailable. If the vehicle was made with the intention of being used oversea, it won't require Adblue. However, I'm sure many of the vehicles on military bases aren't covered under the exemption so this could affect our military readiness as well. In California, there has been a big push to shift away from diesel generators to natural gas, so there may be less of an impact in that area. Government has a bad habit of applying the law to everyone but themselves so I wouldn't be surprised if most military generators are still diesel.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

Ugh, this doesn't sound good.

Short term, the US needs to supply its own urea. Long term, go with electric trucks and start using more sustainable farming practices which use less or no fertilizer. Nitrogen fixing bacteria can help with the latter.

We can't build that many electric trucks fast enough due to the computer chip shortage and there isn't enough nickel and lithium supply to do it either. California mandating the electric system run on nothing but solar, wind, and hydrogen fuel cells in the future isn't helping (Everything will need battery storage). Neither are the requirements in CA for all cars, yard equipment, and "generators" to be electric or 0 carbon polluting (cars by 2035, generators and yard equipment by 2024) (again hogs the battery supply). This disaster is coming because of green energy policies. I doubt the current administration will allow a bypass of the regulations to keep the trucks running. They are environmentalists. They would rather try to force all trucking companies to instantly switch to newer, less polluting trucks. They'll likely drag their feet on the issue and say there's no quick solution (like a bypass patch for the computer systems to let trucks work without Adblue) while the shelves go empty and first responder vehicles stop working. By the way, there could be a bypass workaround for the Adblue. The reason why people aren't doing it isn't because it can't be done. They're not doing it because it's illegal and costly if you get caught.

 

[jtr1962]

We can't build that many electric trucks fast enough due to the computer chip shortage and there isn't enough nickel and lithium supply to do it either. California mandating the electric system run on nothing but solar, wind, and hydrogen fuel cells in the future isn't helping (Everything will need battery storage). Neither are the requirements in CA for all cars, yard equipment, and "generators" to be electric or 0 carbon polluting (cars by 2035, generators and yard equipment by 2024) (again hogs the battery supply). This disaster is coming because of green energy policies. I doubt the current administration will allow a bypass of the regulations to keep the trucks running. They are environmentalists. They would rather try to force all trucking companies to instantly switch to newer, less polluting trucks. They'll likely drag their feet on the issue and say there's no quick solution (like a bypass patch for the computer systems to let trucks work without Adblue) while the shelves go empty and first responder vehicles stop working. By the way, there could be a bypass workaround for the Adblue. The reason why people aren't doing it isn't because it can't be done. They're not doing it because it's illegal and costly if you get caught.

We're starting to get on board with nuclear again, finally. That, and hopefully commercial fusion, will eliminate any issues with the grid going green. Long term not getting off fossil fuels will be a bigger disaster than whatever occurs during the transition.

Iron-air and sodium ion batteries are in development. We're not electrifying vehicles overnight. For now we have enough lithium to make batteries as fast as we can build vehicles. By the time we don't, the other two battery technologies should be ready.

I like to think of any crisis as also being an opportunity. This might be the push to get the freight railroads to finally electrify. Even though doing so will increase their profits over the long haul. they haven't done it because of the prevailing next quarter mentality at Wall Street. No CEO wants to be holding the bag when the cost of electrification is absorbed on his/her tenure. If it turns out that the trains can't run at all without electrification, they will quickly change their tune. Also, most long-distance freight should move by train anyway. It doesn't because trucks usually offer better shipping times. Electrification will tilt that equation somewhat. It will also increase line capacity by allowing trains to get over the line more quickly. Hence the same number of locomotives/freight cars can serve more customers.

 

[jtr1962]

I posed this question on another forum, figured I'd fly it here too. I wonder if the military has the same requirement to use DEF as the civilian world. 99.5+ percent of military ground vehicles and equipment (pumps, generators, etc.) run on diesel since the big 1980's push toward a "one fuel" military supply chain. Since most of their vehicles have civilian adapted drivetrains, it wouldn't suprise me if they have the same DEF requirements. FYI- there is no hardware/software workaround for the sensors, or truckers and farmers would have found it and been using it by now.

Also worth mentioning is that the military will be the first one to move away from liquid fuels once it's feasible. Hauling billions of tons of fuel to battle areas presents huge logistical challenges. Not having to do so would give us a huge tactical advantage. There is a nuclear resurgence going on now, but it's taking the form of smaller, modular reactors. These should prove perfect for military use. One or two might power an entire military base, for example.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

What we have is a time crunch. Most of our fleets of semi-trucks, trash trucks, police cars, ambulances, fire trucks, etc. run on diesel and need Adblue to function. We are talking about tens of millions of vehicles that may not have what they need to function very soon. Australia, for example has less than a 6 week supply of Adblue after China cut them off. Korea ran out. Someone in Congress estimated that 10,000 trucks per day would shutdown from the shortage in the U.S. Replacing any substantial amount of these otherwise good working trucks with more expensive natural gas or electric trucks in the time required during a supply and labor shortage is impossible. Trying to do so will only inflate the prices of goods further. You won't care about the environment once people are dying in mass from starvation and a lack of essential services caused by this problem.

We would all like to live in a world where we can all afford off grid solar and electric cars so we can say goodbye to gas and electric bills and have perfectly clean air and water. Right now, we still need oil to get there. We need nuclear, natural gas, coal, and everything else because the grid has not been maintained and everything that takes a battery that is added to the grid sucks up power first, it doesn't give it (a battery is a load, not a power source). Modern nuclear plants take at least 5 years to build. They need to start building them now. Wind doesn't work because it is derated to save birds. Solar using mirrors and not panels works great, and is cheap, but it's a death ray for birds. Coal works great now. They pump the CO2 back into the ground to bring up more fuel. Too bad they are stopping using it. The U.S. is the Saudia Arabia of coal. Natural gas is pretty clean. It's too bad CA is phasing it out before stabilizing the grid. To run everything on electric, you need wires. Wires have insulation. Insulation comes from oil. Solar panels are made using coal. Anything made new has an initial carbon footprint in it's production. It's better for the environment to replace trucks as they naturally stop working than to scrap tens of millions all at once and replace them with new ones.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

Also worth mentioning is that the military will be the first one to move away from liquid fuels once it's feasible. Hauling billions of tons of fuel to battle areas presents huge logistical challenges. Not having to do so would give us a huge tactical advantage. There is a nuclear resurgence going on now, but it's taking the form of smaller, modular reactors. These should prove perfect for military use. One or two might power an entire military base, for example.

I must have missed that war in the Middle East when they were dumb enough to bring the oil over from the U.S. instead of getting it at the source where they were fighting. Tell me, how well do electric cars work in the middle of a desert with no infrastructure? Nuclear reactors on ships powering a base only works by the water and leaves them landlocked (Ship commanders have already rejected this idea). Bringing nuclear reactors into enemy territory is just asking for trouble (do they steal it and make a bomb, or just blow it up?).

 

[jtr1962]

What we have is a time crunch. Most of our fleets of semi-trucks, trash trucks, police cars, ambulances, fire trucks, etc. run on diesel and need Adblue to function. We are talking about tens of millions of vehicles that may not have what they need to function very soon. Australia, for example has less than a 6 week supply of Adblue after China cut them off. Korea ran out. Someone in Congress estimated that 10,000 trucks per day would shutdown from the shortage in the U.S. Replacing any substantial amount of these otherwise good working trucks with more expensive natural gas or electric trucks in the time required during a supply and labor shortage is impossible. Trying to do so will only inflate the prices of goods further.

I said electric trucks are a long-term solution, not a short-term one.

You won't care about the environment once people are dying in mass from starvation and a lack of essential services caused by this problem.

They'll find a fix for this before it gets to that point.

We would all like to live in a world where we can all afford off grid solar and electric cars so we can say goodbye to gas and electric bills and have perfectly clean air and water.

It's not just about clean air and water. It's about being sick and tired of price fluctuations and garbage like this DEF problem screwing with the economy. Renewables and nuclear, along with electrifying vehicles and buildings, will finally bring price stability and freedom from shortages or market manipulation by OPEC.

Right now, we still need oil to get there. We need nuclear, natural gas, coal, and everything else because the grid has not been maintained and everything that takes a battery that is added to the grid sucks up power first, it doesn't give it (a battery is a load, not a power source). Modern nuclear plants take at least 5 years to build. They need to start building them now.

The smaller modular nuclear plants can be built a lot more quickly. Nuclear is what we need now, lots of it, to serve as baseline power while renewables kick in for the rest. And hopefully commercial fusion comes online in 10 or 15 years.

Coal works great now. They pump the CO2 back into the ground to bring up more fuel. Too bad they are stopping using it.

The utilities went from coal to natural gas because it's cheaper. Now commercial solar is even less, eventually promising generation rates under $0.01/kW-hr. So it's even good economics to move to renewables.

Anything made new has an initial carbon footprint in it's production.

Of course it does. Nobody said otherwise. A new solar panel breaks even in terms of carbon footprint after roughly a year.

It's better for the environment to replace trucks as they naturally stop working than to scrap tens of millions all at once and replace them with new ones.

Well, if we don't solve the DEF problem soon they'll "naturally" stop working in a matter of weeks or months. Also, it's not terrible onerous to retrofit existing trucks to electric. They already have the Tesla crate motor which is a drop-in replacement for the engines in muscle cars. Not much of a stretch to do the same for semis. Probably a lot more profit in it as well. It wouldn't surprise me if Musk is already developing this after hearing about the potential DEF shortage. It's far less expensive to convert an existing truck than to buy a brand new electric truck. Plus it's a lower carbon footprint since you're not scrapping a perfectly good truck body with years of life left.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

They'll find a fix for this before it gets to that point.

I hope you're right, but the people that need to fix it don't have the best track record. Let's see what they did wrong:
Let our oil pipelines get hacked.
Their solution: Open up a pipeline for Russia. Shut down all our domestic supplies of oil.
Let our meat companies get hacked.
Their solution: Tell the company to pay the ransom so more companies get hacked in the future.
Afghanistan withdrawal
Their solution: I'm not even going to go there.
Shipping crisis
Their solution: Fire the truckers that don't get the vaccine. Tell people the ports will now be operating 24/7 (they already were).
Smash and grabs
Their solution: Again, I'm not touching that one

I wish I could trust those in power to fix this, but if they did, it might be the first thing they did right. I'll prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and try and be in a situation where I can help others if things get bad.

 

[jtr1962]

Stock up on stuff while you can still get it. That's what I did.

 

[bykfixer]

I heard on a news cast this week the auto industry is looking into building vehicles with less computer chips.

The US is staring down the barrel of big changes coming soon and the safety is turned off.

UPS went natural gas in much of their fleet a long time ago.

 

[idleprocess]

A bit tangential: the auto industry's chip supply woes are twofold:

• Reliance on chips that use old process relative to the rest of industry
• Cut back on orders in the face of slack demand

Semiconductor process is generally defined by nominal dimension of the smallest element in the silicon. In 2021 a smartphone or desktop processor is likely to be made on a 7nm or 5nm process. Automakers are often using processes that are >15 years old such as 45nm or even 90nm - cheaper and more physically robust but also ancient relative to how fast the market moves.

The old process chips that automakers use are generally mature designs optimized for the harsh electrical environment of an automobile - alternator voltage isn't the steadiest thing and high-voltage ignitions inexorably generate feedback into all connected circuits. There's also been a long evolutionary process that's resulted in a high degree of reliability for these designs that's not been translated into new process designs.

Chipmakers loathe old processes since almost no one else is using them. When the automakers cut back on orders, there were plenty of other firms waiting in line for the capacity ... on new processes. Equipment and entire production lines for old process designs have been sidelined at the very least as chipmakers shift to new process customers.

Long term, automakers will need to migrate their designs to newer processes since old processes are effectively dead to the rest of the market. This won't be quick or cheap, but the economics of the status quo are unforgiving.

 

[idleprocess]

FYI- there is no hardware/software workaround for the sensors, or truckers and farmers would have found it and been using it by now.

Eh, a search for "emissions delete" suggests this isn't the case and the market will happily supply means to end your vehicle's thirst for DEF. The practice isn't legal of course, but like most other automotive mods that violate regulations enforcement is spotty.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

Eh, a search for "emissions delete" suggests this isn't the case and the market will happily supply means to end your vehicle's thirst for DEF. The practice isn't legal of course, but like most other automotive mods that violate regulations enforcement is spotty.

Those who would happily supply your vehicle an emissions delete have been fined or punished and run out of business. Nobody will touch your truck with a ten foot pole if you ask for this bypass. However, if the government were to make it legal or even insist the software update have a time limit (say 6 months or a year) before automatically returning to how it was previously, the problem would be quickly resolved and the effect on the environment could be minimized.

 

[idleprocess]

Those who would happily supply your vehicle an emissions delete have been fined or punished and run out of business. Nobody will touch your truck with a ten foot pole if you ask for this bypass. However, if the government were to make it legal or even insist the software update have a time limit (say 6 months or a year) before automatically returning to how it was previously, the problem would be quickly resolved and the effect on the environment could be minimized.

A quick search turned up a number of retailers seemingly willing to supply the parts for various deletions, however on closer examination these seem to be EGR and DPF removal, which I gather differ from urea injection.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

Looks like South Korea's military is supplying d.e.f. rations to the commercial truckers (30 liters per driver, enough for 600 km). One of Australia's milk companies in New South Wales is now out of Adblue so their products are going bad since they can't be shipped.

Here's the video about Australia: