I put a thermocouple to the solder point of a test Cree XR-E P4, as shown here:
http://www.cree.com/products/pdf/XLampSolderingandHandling.pdf
My test P4 is a emitter/substrate reflow soldered to a star. The star has been nibbled away to about a 15mm diameter circle (it was scavenged from a crappy P60 drop-in). I attached the emitter/substrate/star to a light piece of metal using Arctic Alumina compound under the star and then secured the LED to the heat sink using standard epoxy around the perimeter of the star. I suppose that technically, this AA Mini Mag mod has less heat sinking than this (just the round metal mini-board under the substrate).
I powered the P4 at Vin=3.6V and within one minute, the thermocouple temp reached 170F (77C). The datasheet spec for thermal resistance between LED junction and solder point is 8C/W. I drove the LED at
[email protected] (this current level is why I didn't run the P4 at 3.7V or 3.8V to simulate a Li-ion more closely), or 4.1W. Thus, the junction temp is calculated to be 77C+8*4.1 = 110C.
At full power, I wouldn't run the light for more than a few sec at a time if direct driving a Cree XR-E Q5 with 1xLi-ion. Parasitic resistance in the light can help here, acting like a built-in dropping resistor.
To simulate the effect of parasitic resistance/dropping resistor, I ran my test P4 at 650mA drive current (3.35V input) and reached 123F (51C) after 3 min. That gives an estimated junction temp of 51+8*(3.35*0.65) = 68C. The thermocouple measurement seemed to be moving upward fairly slowly after 3 min, so I can believe that running for 5 min or perhaps even for 10 min continuous would not heat up the light excessively (however, what you perceive on the outside of the flashlight may not reflect what is going on at the LED, especially since the LED looks to have poor thermal contact to the rest of the metal flashlight body). At 650mA drive current, you could get around 130 lumens out the front.
When I ran my XR-E P4 at low power (3V@~150mA), the solder point temp reached 92F (33C) after 2 minutes and didn't look like it was going to move much higher (if any at all). The calculated junction temp in this case is about 33C+8*0.45 = 37C.
So running the light in direct drive using 2xalkalines or 2xNiMH looks like there should be no heat issue. Of course, output is also correspondingly lower. Relative luminous flux at 3V/150mA drive current is about 50% or around 50 lumens for the Q5. Not bad for a quick and dirty AA Mini Mag direct drive build.