Hi jbw,
If you measure the cold resistance of the bulb, and divide that resistance into the supply voltage, you will have an estimate of the maximum possible peak cold-start current that would be reached in a situation where the flow of current to the bulb is practically unrestricted. In my experience, this testing would indicate that most bulbs could in theory draw upwards of 10X their normal running current on a cold-start in those first few milliseconds.
In reality, there are going to be many factors that reduce the effects of this maximum peak. While there is still a peak, it isn't going to be 10 fold the running current in most installations. Probably more like 3-5X the running current is more likely. Keep in mind, that even in normal installations with normal expected amounts of resistance, the warm-up time to normal running current occurs in a fraction of a second.
In choosing a switch, picking something that can handle 2-4X the normal running current of the bulb should be more than adequate for long term reliability.
Out of curiosity, is this a 6V or 12V system on board? Keep in mind that 6V systems are going to have double the current requirements and require significantly beefier wiring and switches to handle the current without major losses from resistance.
-Eric