How many lumens will this driver give me?

He's probably assuming regular glass lens, heavily stippled OP reflector, and lumen loss due to the LED heating up...
 
I certainly do include the losses from the LED heating up, but also it is easy to under estimate just how much optical loss comes from slight imperfections in optics, even good ones.

Some of this also comes from the cold hearted measurements from using real light meters vs what is supposed to happen. Many people mistakenly are overly zealous with their flashlight's output. Sort of like fishing.:)
 

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