BB
Flashlight Enthusiast
I promised not to hijack the Unleaded Gasoline price thread, but, instead start a new thread on how to sell an Electric Powered Vehicle--Ideally (I would assume) in conjunction with Solar Power.
Electricity from the utility grid, by itself, still relies on Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and to a lesser degree on dams, windmills , geothermal, etc... All of the forgoing power sources are either non-renewable and/or have problems with waste products, negative impacts on birds, rivers, etc. And, in general, they all suffer from NIMBY (not in my backyard) syndrome.
Solar panels (or other quite "point of use" technologies) in conjunction with EV's seem to be natural fit.
So, to start the discussion, here is a link to Toyota's Rav4 EV web site where Toyota give a few numbers on what happened when they tried to sell both a true battery electric vehicle and a hybrid:
[ QUOTE ]
Toyota Motor Corporation discontinued production of the RAV4 Electric Vehicle worldwide in the spring of 2003. Therefore, Toyota will no longer take orders for the RAV4 EV.
Toyota remains committed to developing an "Eco Vehicle," one that will have a minimal impact on the environment. Toyota believes that in order to have a positive environmental impact, a large number of consumers must embrace the technology. In order for this to happen, the vehicle must meet the lifestyle needs of, and be affordable to, the mass market. Although a significant marketing effort was undertaken for the RAV4-EV, we only sold about 300 vehicles a year.
In addition to overall customer acceptance, technical issues tied to electric vehicles remain a major hurdle. The California Air Resources Board published a guidance statement regarding EV battery life. The guideline stated that when the battery capacity decreases to less than 80% of the original capacity, the battery needs to be replaced. A battery's capacity is the amount of charge that it holds, and is commonly measured by the range of the vehicle. It is cost-prohibitive to replace an EV battery. The cost to replace the battery is more than the value of the vehicle.
Although Toyota's electric vehicle sales have proved disappointing, Toyota was able to leverage valuable technology from the development and sales of the RAV4-EV. For example, some of the technology involved in the Hybrid Synergy Drive system on the next generation Prius came from the RAV4-EV. Toyota was the first company to introduce a hybrid vehicle to the mass market in 1997. Now, the second generation Prius is coming out. It's larger, faster, gets better fuel mileage than before, and is 90 percent cleaner for smog-forming emissions than the average vehicle on the road. It is affordable and appealing to the mainstream market, which should result in an expansion in the number of consumers driving cleaner vehicles. Toyota has sold more than 100,000 hybrid vehicles worldwide, and 52,000 Prius hybrids in the United States.
[/ QUOTE ]
Darrell said that he will be away from his computer for the next week, so he may not be able to reply to questions as rapidly as he normally does.
So, looking at Toyota's experience--does what they have here ring true so far? A few points:
Prius by the numbers:
1. ~14,000 Prius hybrid's sold per year (approximately 52,000 US, 100,000 world).
2. Prius is $20,000 list... Similar Toyota Corolla is $14,000.
3. Prius Traction battery estimated to have 100,000 mile and 8 year (plus or minus a couple of years) life.
4. Prius traction battery replacement cost is ~$4,000 but to drop to ~$1,000 by 2012 (perhaps as a rebuilt unit--Toyota's reported est.).
5. Prius 80,000 miles at 55 mpg (average) and $2.00 / gal. = $2,900 worth of gas.
6. Prius 80,000 miles at 55 mpg (average) and $5.00 / gal. = $7,250 worth of gas.
7. Corolla 80,000 miles at 32 mpg (city) and $2.00 / gal. = $5,000 worth of gas.
8. Corolla 80,000 miles at 32 mpg (city) and $5.00 / gal. = $12,500 worth of gas.
Rav4 EV by the numbers:
1. ~300 Rav4 EV's sold/leased per year (approximately 1,500 units?).
2. Rav4 EV was $42-$44,000 list (2002) with a California rebate of ~$10-$12,000. Current Rav4 base price is $19-$20,000.
3. Rav4 EV Battery life (80% capacity) is approximately 5 years or 100,000 miles? Weight over 900 lbs.
4. Rav4 EV cost to replace a battery is more than the value of the vehicle? Kelly Bluebook (private sale) is ~$6,300 for a 5 year old gas powered Rav4 with 80,000 miles. Is a battery change going to cost somewhere around $24,000 to $30,000 (Toyota's estimate in 2002)?
5. A Rav4 at 25 mpg and $2.00/gal and 80,000 miles, that translates into roughly $6,400 in fuel costs. Rav4 battery change is 4x the cost with respect to current US fuel costs.
6. A Rav4 at 25 mpg and $5.00/gal and 80,000 miles, that translates into roughly $16,000 in fuel costs. Rav4 battery change is almost 2x the cost with respect to high Europe fuel costs.
7. Cost to drive a Rav4 EV 25 miles (city/highway average) 0.4kWh/mile x 25 miles x $0.10 /kWh = $1.00 (interestingly, this was the typical cost to produce 1 gallon of gasoline by Exon, world wide, in 2002--i.e. without road taxes) which would send a Rav4 25 miles.
So, according to Toyota, the Prius sold at 20x to 40x the Rav4 EV rate--with a roughly similar marketing plan (and budget?).
If Toyota is correct and the Prius traction battery drops to 1/4 the current price and the Rav4 EV battery scales the same (say $7,000) and then the list price of the Rav4 EV drops by $21,000 and the battery replacement by $21,000--we probably have rough parity for a Rav4 gas and a Rav4 EV at $2.00 per gallon and a good savings of some $5,000 to almost $10,000 if we assume $5.00 per gallon for gas, no road taxes and free electricity.
Please review my above numbers/"facts"... The estimates for battery life and costs were combined from Toyota's web site and some Google searching of write-ups that were directly attributed to Toyota (and Southern California Edison's Rav4 EV fleet). I used 80,000 miles as an average of what, I believe, an in-town car user may drive over 5 years. The battery packs have been reported to last over 100,000 miles (even some estimates to 150,000 miles)--but for 100,000 miles over 5 years, a person would have to be driving over two hours a day, 5 days a week, 50 weeks/year, averaging 35 mph--a lot of driving for a "non-professional" and somewhat close to the typical max range of 90-110 miles of the typical Rav4 EV vehicle between charges.
Every time Darrell just about has me convinced that EV's are here and just need a small push--I run some of the numbers and I don't get it.
I think that the Hybrid's numbers appear to be more marketing than any fundamental changes in the way we do business... They leave engines, transmissions, and oil changes for dealer after sale profits. The cars continue to suck on hydrocarbon fuels for the oil companies, at a somewhat smaller rate--so government tax base continues--and if the US government spikes the tax rate to $4-$5 per gallon, the hybrid taxes will increased as well...
I am beginning to join this big conspiracy theory club with my own that "government is scared of a commonly available fuel--such as 'electricity' which currently does not have road taxes--and in the extreme can be easily generated without need of government involvement (i.e., solar)." Therefore, they are directing research and incentives towards other technologies that won't escape their regulatory/taxing fingers (such as hydrogen).
Darrell, what battery technologies do you see that will increase battery life and/or decrease battery costs. I think that if battery costs go up as engineers try to increase range--that may not be a mass-market type solution.
I have tried to skew the numbers conservatively (i.e., assume a gas car getting city only mileage--a hybrid getting average city/highway--an EV getting "free power" and paying no road taxes), and used high and very high gasoline prices. The numbers I am trying for are to get a range of values that somebody can look at and understand the various strengths and weaknesses of each solution. They can easily be off by 10 or even 30 percent--but that still does not detract from the analysis of the basic relationships.
Your thoughts?
-Bill
Electricity from the utility grid, by itself, still relies on Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and to a lesser degree on dams, windmills , geothermal, etc... All of the forgoing power sources are either non-renewable and/or have problems with waste products, negative impacts on birds, rivers, etc. And, in general, they all suffer from NIMBY (not in my backyard) syndrome.
Solar panels (or other quite "point of use" technologies) in conjunction with EV's seem to be natural fit.
So, to start the discussion, here is a link to Toyota's Rav4 EV web site where Toyota give a few numbers on what happened when they tried to sell both a true battery electric vehicle and a hybrid:
[ QUOTE ]
Toyota Motor Corporation discontinued production of the RAV4 Electric Vehicle worldwide in the spring of 2003. Therefore, Toyota will no longer take orders for the RAV4 EV.
Toyota remains committed to developing an "Eco Vehicle," one that will have a minimal impact on the environment. Toyota believes that in order to have a positive environmental impact, a large number of consumers must embrace the technology. In order for this to happen, the vehicle must meet the lifestyle needs of, and be affordable to, the mass market. Although a significant marketing effort was undertaken for the RAV4-EV, we only sold about 300 vehicles a year.
In addition to overall customer acceptance, technical issues tied to electric vehicles remain a major hurdle. The California Air Resources Board published a guidance statement regarding EV battery life. The guideline stated that when the battery capacity decreases to less than 80% of the original capacity, the battery needs to be replaced. A battery's capacity is the amount of charge that it holds, and is commonly measured by the range of the vehicle. It is cost-prohibitive to replace an EV battery. The cost to replace the battery is more than the value of the vehicle.
Although Toyota's electric vehicle sales have proved disappointing, Toyota was able to leverage valuable technology from the development and sales of the RAV4-EV. For example, some of the technology involved in the Hybrid Synergy Drive system on the next generation Prius came from the RAV4-EV. Toyota was the first company to introduce a hybrid vehicle to the mass market in 1997. Now, the second generation Prius is coming out. It's larger, faster, gets better fuel mileage than before, and is 90 percent cleaner for smog-forming emissions than the average vehicle on the road. It is affordable and appealing to the mainstream market, which should result in an expansion in the number of consumers driving cleaner vehicles. Toyota has sold more than 100,000 hybrid vehicles worldwide, and 52,000 Prius hybrids in the United States.
[/ QUOTE ]
Darrell said that he will be away from his computer for the next week, so he may not be able to reply to questions as rapidly as he normally does.
So, looking at Toyota's experience--does what they have here ring true so far? A few points:
Prius by the numbers:
1. ~14,000 Prius hybrid's sold per year (approximately 52,000 US, 100,000 world).
2. Prius is $20,000 list... Similar Toyota Corolla is $14,000.
3. Prius Traction battery estimated to have 100,000 mile and 8 year (plus or minus a couple of years) life.
4. Prius traction battery replacement cost is ~$4,000 but to drop to ~$1,000 by 2012 (perhaps as a rebuilt unit--Toyota's reported est.).
5. Prius 80,000 miles at 55 mpg (average) and $2.00 / gal. = $2,900 worth of gas.
6. Prius 80,000 miles at 55 mpg (average) and $5.00 / gal. = $7,250 worth of gas.
7. Corolla 80,000 miles at 32 mpg (city) and $2.00 / gal. = $5,000 worth of gas.
8. Corolla 80,000 miles at 32 mpg (city) and $5.00 / gal. = $12,500 worth of gas.
Rav4 EV by the numbers:
1. ~300 Rav4 EV's sold/leased per year (approximately 1,500 units?).
2. Rav4 EV was $42-$44,000 list (2002) with a California rebate of ~$10-$12,000. Current Rav4 base price is $19-$20,000.
3. Rav4 EV Battery life (80% capacity) is approximately 5 years or 100,000 miles? Weight over 900 lbs.
4. Rav4 EV cost to replace a battery is more than the value of the vehicle? Kelly Bluebook (private sale) is ~$6,300 for a 5 year old gas powered Rav4 with 80,000 miles. Is a battery change going to cost somewhere around $24,000 to $30,000 (Toyota's estimate in 2002)?
5. A Rav4 at 25 mpg and $2.00/gal and 80,000 miles, that translates into roughly $6,400 in fuel costs. Rav4 battery change is 4x the cost with respect to current US fuel costs.
6. A Rav4 at 25 mpg and $5.00/gal and 80,000 miles, that translates into roughly $16,000 in fuel costs. Rav4 battery change is almost 2x the cost with respect to high Europe fuel costs.
7. Cost to drive a Rav4 EV 25 miles (city/highway average) 0.4kWh/mile x 25 miles x $0.10 /kWh = $1.00 (interestingly, this was the typical cost to produce 1 gallon of gasoline by Exon, world wide, in 2002--i.e. without road taxes) which would send a Rav4 25 miles.
So, according to Toyota, the Prius sold at 20x to 40x the Rav4 EV rate--with a roughly similar marketing plan (and budget?).
If Toyota is correct and the Prius traction battery drops to 1/4 the current price and the Rav4 EV battery scales the same (say $7,000) and then the list price of the Rav4 EV drops by $21,000 and the battery replacement by $21,000--we probably have rough parity for a Rav4 gas and a Rav4 EV at $2.00 per gallon and a good savings of some $5,000 to almost $10,000 if we assume $5.00 per gallon for gas, no road taxes and free electricity.
Please review my above numbers/"facts"... The estimates for battery life and costs were combined from Toyota's web site and some Google searching of write-ups that were directly attributed to Toyota (and Southern California Edison's Rav4 EV fleet). I used 80,000 miles as an average of what, I believe, an in-town car user may drive over 5 years. The battery packs have been reported to last over 100,000 miles (even some estimates to 150,000 miles)--but for 100,000 miles over 5 years, a person would have to be driving over two hours a day, 5 days a week, 50 weeks/year, averaging 35 mph--a lot of driving for a "non-professional" and somewhat close to the typical max range of 90-110 miles of the typical Rav4 EV vehicle between charges.
Every time Darrell just about has me convinced that EV's are here and just need a small push--I run some of the numbers and I don't get it.
I think that the Hybrid's numbers appear to be more marketing than any fundamental changes in the way we do business... They leave engines, transmissions, and oil changes for dealer after sale profits. The cars continue to suck on hydrocarbon fuels for the oil companies, at a somewhat smaller rate--so government tax base continues--and if the US government spikes the tax rate to $4-$5 per gallon, the hybrid taxes will increased as well...
I am beginning to join this big conspiracy theory club with my own that "government is scared of a commonly available fuel--such as 'electricity' which currently does not have road taxes--and in the extreme can be easily generated without need of government involvement (i.e., solar)." Therefore, they are directing research and incentives towards other technologies that won't escape their regulatory/taxing fingers (such as hydrogen).
Darrell, what battery technologies do you see that will increase battery life and/or decrease battery costs. I think that if battery costs go up as engineers try to increase range--that may not be a mass-market type solution.
I have tried to skew the numbers conservatively (i.e., assume a gas car getting city only mileage--a hybrid getting average city/highway--an EV getting "free power" and paying no road taxes), and used high and very high gasoline prices. The numbers I am trying for are to get a range of values that somebody can look at and understand the various strengths and weaknesses of each solution. They can easily be off by 10 or even 30 percent--but that still does not detract from the analysis of the basic relationships.
Your thoughts?
-Bill