Thanks for the suggestions all, I'm sure some of the suggestions could be useful to others looking for similar functionality.
For me, I was looking for a very specific downlight for a bathroom: 4000k because I like the "medical grade" color temp at full intensity, and much warmer (at least 2700k) for using the bathroom in the middle of the night, or just for my wife who like warmer color temps.
These lights are going to be used in a full gut-to-the-studs reno, so I also wanted flangeless (trimless) - because if you're looking for a unicorn, why not shoot for an albino one as well right? And it should be 90+ CRI, offered in shower trim, etc. I'm making it hard.
The residential lighting market doesn't have a solution that fits this bill, "CCT" type lights sold by commercial electric have a switch to set color temp, sure, but that's not "dim to warm". Dim to warm itself appears to be a marketing term that specifically refers to lights starting at 3000k at 100% intensity, and dimming to (usually) the low 2000s. But the starting point of 3000k is baked into any light that offers "dim to warm" as far as I found.
Separately, in the commercial downlight sector, I stumbled upon "tunable white". This is a feature of LED downlights that can be generally described as variable starting and ending color temperatures, and two-channel control such that intensity (lumen output) is driven on channel A and color temperature driven on channel B. Two independent controls, but this is getting closer to what I need because one of the configurations I found starts at 4000k and goes down to 1800k. Perfect!
But - this is a bathroom in a residential building that I'm sharing with my family. I don't really *want* the complexity of two dimmers, or even worse (in my opinion) a fancy touchscreen control. That dim to warm functionality, one slider controlling both intensity and color temperature in tandem, is still the goal.
So I found two ways to make this happen, and I'd like to share both with the community.
Option 1
Tech Lighting's Element series offers tunable white (TW) flangeless shower-trim high lumen output downlights with a TW range of 4000k to 1800k. Critically, they offer several different drivers, one of which is a "dumb" 0-10V driver wherein both intensity and color temp channels use the same type of 0-10V electrical control signal, able to driven by a simple lutron-type 0-10V ELV dimmer.
Because the electrical specifications for the intensity and color temp (CCT in the above picture) channels are
exactly the same, I can drive this fixture as a "dim to warm" can by joining the positive intensity and CCT channels on one post of a single 0-10V dimmer, the negative channels on another. Since the same dimmer part numbers are used for both channels, there is no risk of incompatible control signals here.
This is ultimately what I went with, because it it's less finicky. The cans are ordered, and I'm going to test one on my bench when it arrives. If, for some reason, this doesn't work the way I expect it to, I've resigned myself to the gamble that I'm taking and we will end up with two "dumb" 0-10V dimmers in a two-gang in our wall.
This is the E4R-L-LH-TW41-60-D-I-ELT0 housing with E4R-L-B-H-W trim, should anyone care.
Someone who wants more options or less hardcoding of the light behavior would prefer option 2 below.
Option 2
Alphabet Lighting's NU series, specifically the
NU4RD configured as tunable white (TW). This light's TW board goes from 6500k to 2700k, which is the principal reason I did not go with it. This is both a broader range than I need, while being too cold on the high end and not warm enough on the low end.
But, if I did go with this light and was OK with dimming across its entire color temp spectrum I could have also ordered it with a dual channel 0-10V driver (DIM10Z order code) and, in principal, wired it to a single dimmer switch as for Option 1. Separately, I think I could have also achieved 4000k to 2700k dimming on a single switch
if I ordered it with the Casambi bluetooth driver. This driver has a mobile companion app that you can connect to the fixture with, and set a custom color temp map. Such that at 100% intensity T_color = 4000k and at 1% intensity (or whatever) T_color = 2700k, with linear or log interpolation between the two. The downside of this is several fold tho, (1) if power goes out you need to reprogram the lightS, plural, which sounds like a PITA, and (2) I never got far enough down this path to determine if that bluetooth driver still let me wire the cans to a switch, or if I would need a bluetooth enabled control panel in my wall.
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Anyway - maybe that'll be useful to one of you in the future. These aren't cheap FYI - if you want 4" version, you're looking at almost $500 a pop. For the Elements series, I know they get cheaper as you go down in size, but the driver has to be external and I didn't want to deal with junction plates in our ceiling or hidden in a cabinet somewhere.
Thanks again for the suggestions!