I know Nichia and Lumileds signed an agreement to share technology, and Nichia plans to start mass producing the 60 lm/W white LEDs in 2005 which they lab tested last year. Therefore, while I don't think we'll be seeing any huge efficiency improvements this year, next year or the following year look very bright (no pun intended). Additionally, we have no idea what Nichia or Lumileds may have tested and not publicly announced (so as to keep the competition guessing). I for one am far more interested in efficiency improvements than in power increases. The higher you get the efficiency, the less percentage of your power goes into waste heat, and this means that you can increase the power level in an existing package. Lumiled's 3W Luxeon package can deal with ~3W of heat with no problems. At present LED efficiency is maybe 10%. Were this to increase to 50% then you could drive an LED in the L3 package to over 6W, and since the efficiency per watt is five times higher, the light output per package increases by a factor of about 10. The same reasoning applies to the more common T-1 3/4 LEDs. Current white LEDs produce 1 to 2 lumens but if efficiency increased to 50% they could be driven at 40 mA instead of 20 mA, and produce 10 to 20 lumens-more than enough for many small lighting applications. While this year doesn't look too exciting, the future looks bright. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif