Will leds ever surpass the wire?

I have been doing a lot of reading about the pros and cons of led and incan.

Everyone seems to agree on one thing: Incan lights will out throw leds.

My question is this:

Will leds ever be better than incan in ALL respects?

Example: Will a 2x123 led light one day be "brighter" and "better" than a P61 bulb on top of 2x123?

Will it have more light, more throw, and longer battery life?

Thanks guys,

SS

Welcome to the future, It's starting to happen already.
Mainly the modded lights now, but commercially available ones can be found here and there for a premium with 500+ hour rated emitters.
The luxeon3's are the 60-80+lumen throw champs of leds in reflectors 20mm or bigger.
The Luxeon5's are the 100-200+ lumen, brute,flagship guts and glory of single led's with still better than good throw in 2" or bigger reflectors.

Edit:
Here's a beam of a luxeon3 in a 2" reflector from 20 feet away.

IMO, led will never surpass incandecant for throw capability because led produces light nearer to the violet spectrum which has shorter wavelength than infrared red, {incan light falls closer to infrared red). Sure you'll have higher lumens and brighter output from luxeon led as technology progresses.

Just my 2 cents

I don't know about LEDs or incans, but HID will NEVER be beaten in light output or throw in my book. (unless you include landing lights /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/str.gif)

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StainlessSteel said:
I have been doing a lot of reading about the pros and cons of led and incan.

Everyone seems to agree on one thing: Incan lights will out throw leds.

My question is this:

Will leds ever be better than incan in ALL respects?

Example: Will a 2x123 led light one day be "brighter" and "better" than a P61 bulb on top of 2x123?

Will it have more light, more throw, and longer battery life?

Thanks guys,

SS

[/ QUOTE ]

For what it's worth, I think the P61 on a 2x123 setup is a mistake, despite it's performance. When you are draining a 123 cell in 20 minutes, you have to be pulling around 2 amps. If you read the post by silverfox on testing 123s at various currents, you will notice that he has stopped testing 123's at 2 amps current rate because the heat generated made him nervous. I am sure there are others who are very happy with this setup, but IMHO,I think a 3x123 would be more appropriate for 120 Lumen use - regardless of LED or Incan.

- Durability - LED no question
- Full spectral output - Incan for a long time, but LED will eventually match at this power level
- Efficiency - LED is a match if not better already, and continuing to improve.
- Throw - I have seem some pretty strong throwing LED based lights. I think this is a matter of optimizing optics for LED instead of incan.
- 120 Lumens of real output from the front end - This requires at least a W bin Lux V (still not so widely available), and with optics losses, an X bin (which is virtually vapor ware to the average user).

I have seen presentations at conferences for a 1,000 Lumen Luxeon prototype, which some have speculated is intended for the 12 volt auto market. I suppose when these come out we can dim one down to 120 Lumens for you. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Someday, maybe, companies will make a wire LED that glows so bright and hot that it can match a wire. But LED lights that are seriously modded are real close to matching the wire and have whiter looking tints.

I have to admit, Led technology is improving all the time,
Just about all my lights are Led. The only two which are wire are the Thor 10 million Cp, and my 2 D Cell Mag

Right now, LEDs don't look to be going much higher in power than ~4W per die. They just don't seem to like the heat that >4W per die produces.

Major LED manufacturers are reporting amazing increases in efficiency that will yield efficiencies beyond incandescent and potentially encroach on HID... but don't look for total power to increase much in the near future because LEDs don't radiate heat as IR, so they have to sink the heat away from the emitter.

Wires and arcs look to be the output kings for a long time.

I've had many a lights in my flashaholic journey. I've got to definatly agree with everyone on the incan out powering there led counterparts. I personally think Led's shine (non pun intended) in single cell or keychain luxeon applications. Take a solitaire and a luxeon single aa cell madmax run lux3. Take a solitare and compare it to a TNC n-cell with the aaa body tube. In these micro applications i believe that the led's have there moment. Just my humble opinion though
jimmy

haveblue,

Those are some cool looking mods. I hope you are bringing the sniper thingy-do to the get together on the 8th.

I sure can bring it. You might just like it.

Will they eventally? Yes, but by when that time comes, there may already be something else smaller, better, badder, and brighter. HID on your keychain? Proabably in the far distant furture.

Why bother with HID on a keychain (except to say you can)? LEDs rule the low-power world and are already beating HID efficiency at very low power.

At very low levels LEDs are already better in most ways. They just need to catch up in spectrum coverage so the light is more looks pleasing.

I don't think that at higher power levels LEDs will take over.

As a comparison lets look at radio transmitters. You'd think that with the transistor used everywhere that old vacuum tubes would not be used any more. Its true that they don't exist in small radios and such but once you get above a certain power level the old tube technology surpasses the silicon and never looks back.. Consider the RF emitter in your microwave oven, is it solid state or vacuum tube? The answer might surprise you. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif

KC4YLE

even in relativly low power transmitters like us ham operaters use tubes are still king.
look at the cost of a full legal ss hf amp and then look at a tube amp.
price difference will pay for a few tube changes over its (or your)lifetime.
i dont expect incandescent bulbs to go away overnight.
their market share will shrink though.
kc8adu

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Chris_Medico said:
I don't think that at higher power levels LEDs will take over.

As a comparison lets look at radio transmitters. You'd think that with the transistor used everywhere that old vacuum tubes would not be used any more. Its true that they don't exist in small radios and such but once you get above a certain power level the old tube technology surpasses the silicon and never looks back.. Consider the RF emitter in your microwave oven, is it solid state or vacuum tube? The answer might surprise you. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif

KC4YLE

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Never say never! LEDs imo will become better in the future and will surpass the wire. If they're considering using LEDs in cars for headlights then you know that it will be possible for LEDs to replace incans in the future.

Just remember that we landed on the moon when everyone said that it would never happen. Now we are looking at going to Mars and who knows what else.

though i still love my LED's, i am "coming full circle" back to incans.

the reason is the color.
i am finding the incans to have a much warmer color than LED's. in real use, many LED's have an odd 2 dimensional or flattening effect, which sometimes bugs my eyes.

some LED's are warmer in nature, but the hotwires are really starting to (again) catch my attention.

Bob

Here's a few things i wanted to add:

So I am out last night, driving, and I notice it is REALLY dark. So I pull over into a parking lot, and get out to look around and play with my EL Phazer. Then I remember I have my CHEAP Brinkmann Maxfire LX, (my edc light), on me and turn it on...

Now the Phazer has more VOLUME of light, but this little brinkmann stayed with it in terms of throw and "ability".

It was kinda like the explination on www.flashlightreviews.com about lux. One light can have the same lux as another, but one light can cover a larger AREA with that LUX.

Have a good one.

SS

I think in the lower wattages LEDs will take over the wire and there is no technical reason why the throw of LEDs cannot be focused into a tight beam either, they are nearly a point light source. At some certain wattage maybe 10-20 there is where the HIDs will take over...there is inherent losses in small HID bulbs which limit them in smallness and there are heat dissapation issues with LEDs that will limit them in largeness

I think it is just a matter of time as technology will only improve, white LED's have only been arround a few years and already have come on in leaps and bounds.

Just think that only 15 years ago a 1 farad capacitor was unthinkable, as was a 1 gig hard drive 10 years ago, yet nowaday both these once impossible goals have now been more than exceeded.