True cost to run EV like paying $17.33 per gallon if not for $22 billion in government subsidies.

[raggie33]

Trying to make predictions even 5 years into the future with rapidly changing state-of-the-art is a lesson in humility. More often than not even technologists get this stuff wrong.

Some factors here which might merit consideration:

1) The Middle Eastern situation. If that deteriorates into all out war expect oil prices to skyrocket.
2) Advances in batteries which are making them ever more energy dense and inexpensive. It wasn't that long ago here on CPF that I was arguing with people when I said LEDs would largely take over lighting no later than 2020, perhaps earlier. Those who refuted the idea didn't allow for how quickly efficiency improved, and how costs decreased even more quickly. In 2007 a LED putting out 50 lumens cost over $10, and wasn't that much more efficient than a halogen. Now we're at 10 times the efficiency. The cost decreases are far more dramatic. Mid-power LEDs putting out 50 lumens can be had for under a cent in quantity.
3) Vast improvements in charging infrastructure. Remember, gas stations were sparse 100 years ago. That didn't slow the mass adoption of ICE vehicles much. We'll build these things more quickly and cheaply as we learn how to build them. Reliability will also go up. That's actually as large a problem now as the lack of charging stations. Many of them break fairly often.
4) People's attitudes towards air pollution and climate change are changing as the older generations die off. This will spur more adoption of EVs, or better yet more people will go car-free entirely.
5) Increased adoption of home solar. When you can "refuel" at home for free, an EV makes lots of sense. With vehicle to grid it makes even more sense. The car battery can function as a backup in case your power goes out. This is true even if you don't have solar power.
6) More data will become available on the longevity of EV batteries. Right now the prospect of replacing an expensive battery halfway through a vehicle's life is stopping some from adopting EVs. Data so far is showing batteries may actually outlast the rest of the vehicle, perhaps even have significant resale value for grid storage when the rest of the vehicle is junked. A few more years of data are needed, but it looks very promising.

ICE on the other hand is a mature technology. Not much room for improvements. I liken the situation to HDDs versus SSDs. The latter are dropping in cost per TB far more quickly than the former because at this point only incremental improvements for HDDs exist. Eventually we'll reach a crossover point in terms of price. Even now, if your storage needs are a few TB or less, SSDs make the most sense. The cost difference over HDDs is only a few tens of dollars, but you get higher reliability, shock resistance, plus greatly improved speed.

i rather have a root canal then use a hdd lol omg i hated them things. ps tell me if i go to off topic and ill remedy it i promise. good thread

 

[jtr1962]

How are we going to sustain the lithium production needed for EV batteries? The same mining that gets us our coal for power that everyone hates is how you get lithium/kobalt/other components. And it is DIRTY.

Ditto for mining and refining oil. At least lithium is a one-time deal. Mine it, then you can recycle it indefinitely.

LiFePO4 at least eliminates the need for cobalt, along with eliminating the risk of fires/explosions. It also has far more cycles than regular li-ion.

Then we have sodium-ion which is just starting to be mass-produced. We're already mining salt. Only a tiny fraction of that would be needed for batteries.

I hope technology gets better. It's just a bad deal right now.

Many here said the same about LEDs 15 years ago. Look where we are now. As I said, making predictions about rapidly changing technology is fraught with problems. Technology is never stagnant. The free market dictates that the problems get solved.

 

[jtr1962]

i rather have a root canal then use a hdd lol omg i hated them things. ps tell me if i go to off topic and ill remedy it i promise. good thread

You and me both. I remember waiting forever for programs to load while the HDD was crunching away.

 

[idleprocess]

Study: ‘True Costs’ Of Electric Vehicles Far Higher Than Most Believe | The Daily Wire

www.dailywire.com

Daily Wire. Well, I guess we know their biases upfront. Since this article is based on a report (here) we'll just skip the outrage and jump to the primary source and look over their claims. Of course said report is courtesy the Texas Public Policy foundation - whose donors include the likes of Koch Industries and swaths of the Texas petroleum industry, thus also highly biased.

Here's the money shot:

Six areas:

1. Tax credits + Rebates
2. Avoided Charging + Infra costs
3. Incremental Generation/Transmission/Distribution Costs
4. State ZEV mandates + credits
5. EPA GHG Multiplier Credits
6. CAFE credits

Tax credits + Rebates are self-evident.

Avoided Charging + Infra Costs is apparently amortizing IRA allocations for fast charging stations across the number of EVs sold in 2021. Reasonable-ish however such installations can outlast the vehicles sold concurrent with their funding with capital costs that only partially go towards the charging stations themselves.

Incremental Generation/Transmission/Distribution Costs is simply creative writing. The electrical grid sells electricity for purposes well beyond EV charging - such as megalomarts, pool pumps, HVAC - and is largely paid for by the ratepayers it sells electricity to; whatever .gov subsidies go into the grid are amortized across the rest of the economy.

State ZEV mandates + Credits are particular to the states that have them. Of note that TX - and numerous other states - have implemented fees to recover road tax from EVs not paying gas taxes; TX said fees are well above what typical ICE drivers will pay per annum.

CAFE Credits - for all the verbiage blown on this I cannot find evidence that it's such a big factor in the marketplace. We'll look at Tesla since they're the biggest producer of EV's in the United States. Here's Tesla's 10K for 2022. Revenues on page 35:

Tesla reports selling 1.37 million vehicles in 2022. Those credits amount to $1296 per vehicle. If there's some book-cooking going on in Tesla's SEC filing and their revenues from credits are some ~fifteen fold and their gross margins on COGS aren't as claimed there's serious money to be made in litigation as well as jail time for huge swaths of the C-suite.

If the government wants to pass laws that mandate (force) electric cars on us

As far as I know, only WA and CA have mandates on the books, and their timelines are dependent upon market realities that are unlikely to kick in before the milestone dates, thus are at best aspirational. The federal government has at best a policy position right now.

what about the millions of us that live in apartments and don't have personal garages?

An open question for sure.

I know that apartment complexes in the DFW metro have started to install shared L2 chargers (probably in the region of 32A@240V or ~7.7kW). The installation cost is fronted by property owners, usage cost is almost certainly passed on to residents - likely via a credit card or some billing arrangement via a website or mobile app.

Chargers for designated parking spaces will likely have some sort of designee authorization such as a fob (or bluetooth app ala those awful smartlocks that are being deployed en masse).

Units with garages may opt to include chargers or 14-50 outlets so you can plug in your own EVSE. The upcoming industry transition from J1772 to NACS (previously the Tesla connector) may favor the latter.

Properties without dedicated off-street parking ... that's another thing entirely. Probably going to lean on municipalities to deploy public L2 charging. Or utilities to deploy it. Expect to pay for the privilege - ideally at a modest premium over retail electric rates.

What about security against vandalism, since the stations will be out in the open all night?

As opposed to all the other vandalism that can happen?

I gather there are locking mechanisms out there - either workarounds or built into the vehicles themselves.

 

[LuxLuthor]

I won't get an EV. Might consider a hybrid, but overall I don't like the fact that what's driving it is the supposed climate change hoax. I like the fact that the USA has an enormous supply of oil and natural gas that allows us to be energy independent. It is stupid to run all the power plants with their pollution issues just to charge car batteries. Never mind that the charging stations are inadequate, and the impact to our fragile power grid is dangerous. Prices of EV and battery replacements are insane.

If anything, I'll wait for fuel cell or hydrogen cars.

 

[alpg88]

Well politicians believe we need to switch before every issue sorted out, and just adopt on the way, similar to moving into a house that only has a frame build without proper surveying your lot and getting all the permits and paperwork.
But then it is not surprising, their MO is to pass a law before they can find out what is in it. same seem to be the case with EV and overall green agenda

 

[jtr1962]

I won't get an EV. Might consider a hybrid, but overall I don't like the fact that what's driving it is the supposed climate change hoax.

Some of us have just had it with breathing polluted air, getting asthma and cancers, and hearing noisy engines. Ironically, those are far better reasons to adopt EVs than climate change.

I like the fact that the USA has an enormous supply of oil and natural gas that allows us to be energy independent.

If you think lithium mining is dirty, it's nothing compared to extracting oil and natural gas. In the end it might not matter how much of these things the US has. Public sentiment is shifting towards just leaving it in the ground. If you happened to live in a place like Flint, MI, you might be singing a different tune.

It is stupid to run all the power plants with their pollution issues just to charge car batteries.

Except the grid is gradually getting cleaner. Commercial scale solar and wind are now the cheapest means to generate electricity. Nuclear is finally having a renaissance. By the time EVs make up the majority of the fleet, the grid will be much cleaner.

Never mind that the charging stations are inadequate, and the impact to our fragile power grid is dangerous.

Most recharging would be done at home overnight when utilities have surplus capacity. Simple economics. Why pay 2 or 3 times the price at a public charger unless you're doing a long trip and really have no alternatives?

Prices of EV and battery replacements are insane.

Sounds bad, until you realize you'll rarely or never need a replacement battery.

Electric vehicles typically come with a standard battery warranty, between eight and 12 years, plus a certain number of miles. Recurrent found that most drivers were not replacing their batteries even after those warranties expired.

If anything, I'll wait for fuel cell or hydrogen cars.

And guess where the hydrogen from those cars will come from? It'll be made using electricity from the same "fragile" grid to electrolyze water, a process which is 70% to 80% efficient. Fuel cells are less than 70% efficient converting hydrogen to electricity. Or put in layman's terms, you'll be using about twice as much electricity per mile as simply using the same energy to charge a battery. That's not even counting the energy to transport or store the hydrogen. When you include that, you're about a factor of three worse. Hydrogen is simply a far less efficient battery.

The hydrogen hype comes mostly from oil companies who want to continue their dominance of motor fuel. Hydrogen fails on every single technical issue by far.

Again, I don't think EVs are any great solution. They're just better than ICEs in several key areas-pollution, noise, and TCO. I'd rather we started taking steps to move away from an automotive-dominated transportation system, but that's admittedly a decades-long project. In the meantime, EVs can make population centers much more pleasant by getting rid of noise and air pollution. You don't even need to buy into climate change to see those advantages.

 

[LuxLuthor]

Some of us have just had it with breathing polluted air, getting asthma and cancers, and hearing noisy engines. Ironically, those are far better reasons to adopt EVs than climate change.

If you think lithium mining is dirty, it's nothing compared to extracting oil and natural gas.

I don't agree. Lithium mining, other battery components and their construction as well as end of life disposal is not ready for prime time.

Except the grid is gradually getting cleaner. Commercial scale solar and wind are now the cheapest means to generate electricity. Nuclear is finally having a renaissance. By the time EVs make up the majority of the fleet, the grid will be much cleaner.

My point is that we don't have a stable or adequate grid. It is very fragile, not adequately serviced, transformers are dangerously old, and trying to get reliable solar and wind in many areas of the country are preposterous. You need to review current power sources: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

California was unable to have adequate electricity to charge EV's and home/commercial needs. Blackouts are still all too common.

Most recharging would be done at home overnight when utilities have surplus capacity. Simple economics. Why pay 2 or 3 times the price at a public charger unless you're doing a long trip and really have no alternatives?

That assumes the 65% of USA living in homes are willing to install charging stations, and that electric rates will not keep going up dramatically. Those in condos or apartment buildings are screwed.

Sounds bad, until you realize you'll rarely or never need a replacement battery.

Electric vehicles typically come with a standard battery warranty, between eight and 12 years, plus a certain number of miles. Recurrent found that most drivers were not replacing their batteries even after those warranties expired.

https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a31875141/electric-car-battery-life/Again I don't agree if your battery lasts 8-12 years (which we don't know since there is not adequate track records yet) under a myriad of conditions, even having to pay a likely increasing cost of battery replacement is not feasible for many...especially with the ridiculous initial charges of EV's even with all the subsidies which we are also all paying for in taxes.

And guess where the hydrogen from those cars will come from? It'll be made using electricity from the same "fragile" grid to electrolyze water, a process which is 70% to 80% efficient. Fuel cells are less than 70% efficient converting hydrogen to electricity. Or put in layman's terms, you'll be using about twice as much electricity per mile as simply using the same energy to charge a battery. That's not even counting the energy to transport or store the hydrogen. When you include that, you're about a factor of three worse. Hydrogen is simply a far less efficient battery.

Nope, new technology has it up to 95% efficient. Burns clean.

The hydrogen hype comes mostly from oil companies who want to continue their dominance of motor fuel. Hydrogen fails on every single technical issue by far.

Again, I don't think EVs are any great solution. They're just better than ICEs in several key areas-pollution, noise, and TCO. I'd rather we started taking steps to move away from an automotive-dominated transportation system, but that's admittedly a decades-long project. In the meantime, EVs can make population centers much more pleasant by getting rid of noise and air pollution. You don't even need to buy into climate change to see those advantages.

Some good points. I don't really care about the air/noise pollution effects of ICE in large cities, as that's their personal choice to live there. Personally, I like the idea of using the oil and gas energy we have in our own country. Get rid of some of our $33T deficits and away from hostile middle east/Brazil oil sources. Current administration are complete idiots about nearly everything, including their approach to hydrocarbon & energy uses. Eventually If EV's become less expensive, and we can supply our own manufactured batteries, instead of depending on China, it may be more interesting. We are not there yet.

I don't believe that's right about hydrogen or fuel cells, and I don't care where the information comes from.....doesn't mean it's wrong if it comes from oil companies. I also don't agree that hydrogen fails on every technical issue. DOT is putting infrastructure for semi trucks across the country which is faster to fill. They wouldn't be doing that if EV's were the only solution.

I did notice this Toyota breakthrough which is interesting.

https://ts2.space/en/toyotas-new-battery-breakthrough-could-revolutionize-electric-vehicle-industry/

 

[jtr1962]

I don't agree. Lithium mining, other battery components and their construction as well as end of life disposal is not ready for prime time.

Lithium mining has been done for decades. It's mature technology, although it needs to be cleaner. As for disposal, we're gradually getting there. Compare to recycling lead-acid batteries. That took a while to get online, but now it's done routinely. Besides, with sodium-ion production online now, lithium isn't the only game in town.

My point is that we don't have a stable or adequate grid. It is very fragile, not adequately serviced, transformers are dangerously old, and trying to get reliable solar and wind in many areas of the country are preposterous. You need to review current power sources: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

California was unable to have adequate electricity to charge EV's and home/commercial needs. Blackouts are still all too common.

No arguments there but the grid needs to be seriously upgraded anyway, with or without EVs. If you're going to spend the money to make it less fragile, might as well upgrade the distribution capacity at the same time. That's a perfect time to do it.

That assumes the 65% of USA living in homes are willing to install charging stations, and that electric rates will not keep going up dramatically. Those in condos or apartment buildings are screwed.

If rates go up too much, that just makes home solar that much more attractive. As for condos or apartments, China already solved that problem.

https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a31875141/electric-car-battery-life/Again I don't agree if your battery lasts 8-12 years (which we don't know since there is not adequate track records yet) under a myriad of conditions, even having to pay a likely increasing cost of battery replacement is not feasible for many...especially with the ridiculous initial charges of EV's even with all the subsidies which we are also all paying for in taxes.

I hope you know the purchase prices of EVs are heading towards parity with ICE vehicles within a few years.

Even if an EV battery needs replacing after warranty battery prices are only heading one way-down. The new battery will also most likely have greater range as well as costing less. Such is the progress of any new technology. LEDs fell from a few lumens per dollar in 2007 to maybe 5,000 lumens per dollar now.

Nope, new technology has it up to 95% efficient. Burns clean.

I know H2 burns clean. 95% efficient making it, maybe 70% tops using it in a fuel cell. Overall that's around 67% from grid to motor. Charging a battery is something like 90% to 95% efficiency. You still will need to distribute the H2, and store it at a few degrees above absolute zero. That takes energy, plus it'll require a whole new distribution system. Should government fund that?

Some good points. I don't really care about the air/noise pollution effects of ICE in large cities, as that's their personal choice to live there.

Noise/pollution are issues in suburbs also. There's lower density but also fewer roads. End result is sitting in traffic breathing fumes. Rural areas are the only places largely not affected by noise/pollution from ICEs, unless you're near a farm.

Personally, I like the idea of using the oil and gas energy we have in our own country. Get rid of some of our $33T deficits and away from hostile middle east/Brazil oil sources. Current administration are complete idiots about nearly everything, including their approach to hydrocarbon & energy uses. Eventually If EV's become less expensive, and we can supply our own manufactured batteries, instead of depending on China, it may be more interesting. We are not there yet.

Make our own batteries? That's where sodium-ion comes in. We also just uncovered what may well be the largest deposit of lithium on the planet right here in the US. Good news for this country. Don't forget even without EVs so much of modern life is powered by lithium batteries.

Yeah, hostile countries are one reason to get off oil to the maximum extent possible. The remaining demand can be filled with 100% US sources.

I don't believe that's right about hydrogen or fuel cells, and I don't care where the information comes from.....doesn't mean it's wrong if it comes from oil companies. I also don't agree that hydrogen fails on every technical issue. DOT is putting infrastructure for semi trucks across the country which is faster to fill. They wouldn't be doing that if EV's were the only solution.

That's interesting, and one of several niche uses for H2 which might pan out. Grid storage is another. Make the H2 from solar or wind using the 95% efficient process you linked to earlier. Use it in fuel cells at night to take up the slack once the sun is down. No need to transport the H2. It's made and used on site. Even though the overall process is less efficient than charging a battery, the economics probably pan out.

I did notice this Toyota breakthrough which is interesting.

https://ts2.space/en/toyotas-new-battery-breakthrough-could-revolutionize-electric-vehicle-industry/

Yes, exactly. Battery tech is improving constantly. Remember the greater the range per charge, the less of an issue lack of quick charging stations is. With a 745 mile range, which is probably close to the max most people feel like driving in one day, you can just slow charge overnight at a motel. If we were to enhance aerodynamics, I'll bet that 745 mile battery could give 1,500 miles.

 

[bykfixer]

Several filling stations near me now have an area of the parking lot for EV cars. But where does the electricity come from to charge them, you ask.

Big ole truck sized diesel generators, that's where.

 

[alpg88]

Several filling stations near me now have an area of the parking lot for EV cars. But where does the electricity come from to charge them, you ask.

Big ole truck sized diesel generators, that's where.

yea pretty much, pollution argument was relevant 30-40 years ago, todays cars run extremely clean, I have little doubt that diesel generator that charges 10 cars put out much more pollution than 100 modern gas cars. cuz cars have tons of regulations that they have to comply, diesel generators do not.

 

[Monocrom]

Study: ‘True Costs’ Of Electric Vehicles Far Higher Than Most Believe | The Daily Wire

www.dailywire.com

Thanks for the heads-up. Going to email that to my best friend of 35 years who has literally become obsessed with getting an EV.

 

[xxo]

Even with all of the massive taxpayer funded subsidies and incentives, EVs are not selling. Auto makers are having to sell current EV inventory at a loss and are scraping plans for much of their EV production.

Auto execs are coming clean: EVs aren't working

From GM to Tesla to Mercedes, execs across the auto industry are tempering expectations on electric vehicles.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[raggie33]

btw ive always wondered if it would be worse for the environment or better if we all still rode a horse. id guess it would have to be worse

 

[Monocrom]

btw ive always wondered if it would be worse for the environment or better if we all still rode a horse. id guess it would have to be worse

Only the smell, and the distance traveled by horse & buggy.
One horsepower compared to 272 in my current ride.
Quite a downgrade. Although.... tons of free "manure" for plants.

 

[bigburly912]

Don't put "fragile" in quotes when discussing our electric grid. I've worked for two of the largest utilities in the world. Trust me when I tell you the grid is extremely fragile and the more generation we shut down the worse it's going to get.

 

[raggie33]

Don't put "fragile" in quotes when discussing our electric grid. I've worked for two of the largest utilities in the world. Trust me when I tell you the grid is extremely fragile and the more generation we shut down the worse it's going to get.

crazy how fragile it is what if some jerk just gets a a chain saw and chops down the poles in random locations. ps my uncle was high up at fpl. florida power and light

 

[LuxLuthor]

yea pretty much, pollution argument was relevant 30-40 years ago, todays cars run extremely clean, I have little doubt that diesel generator that charges 10 cars put out much more pollution than 100 modern gas cars. cuz cars have tons of regulations that they have to comply, diesel generators do not.

Agree. jtr uses outdated arguments which discredits credibility.

 

[bigburly912]

crazy how fragile it is what if some jerk just gets a a chain saw and chops down the poles in random locations. ps my uncle was high up at fpl. florida power and light

It actually happens raggie. So does shooting components.

 

[LuxLuthor]

Even with all of the massive taxpayer funded subsidies and incentives, EVs are not selling. Auto makers are having to sell current EV inventory at a loss and are scraping plans for much of their EV production.

Auto execs are coming clean: EVs aren't working

From GM to Tesla to Mercedes, execs across the auto industry are tempering expectations on electric vehicles.

www.businessinsider.com

Another valid point. EV-jockeys are shoving this down people's throats without letting it evolve organically. I'm not at all sure that EV's are going to take off. Way too many issues like stress on electric grid, and I personally think it's stupid to update it just so climate change hoaxers can have their precious EV's, while ignoring direct and indirect costs.

Nothing wrong with ICE's for the foreseeable future. Production, maintenance, supply, and gas/diesel availability are well established and working fine. Only thing missing is getting an intelligent administration that uses the gas and oil massive supplies we have in the USA. I do not want to be forced to install at my expense, a charging station, and for sure higher electricity rates just to make these EV nuts happy. People live in a fantasy thinking the massive costs of upgrading the entire electrical grid won't be passed onto the public.