Empirical Firearm Statistics.

[RyanA]

Lately I've been looking at a pistol. I am leaning towards a DAO automatic. My friend who is a private investigator says to get a revolver because in the event a round does not fire it will move on to the next round in the cylinder. However a typical automatic can carry twice as many rounds as a revolver. So I was wondering what the failure to fire rate is for many firearms, I realize this could vary from gun to gun and be attributed to other factors as well, ammunition etc. As far as I know this isn't a published statistic. I could be wrong. I'd be happy if I was truthfully.
This seems like a really nerdy request. But If you're interested next time you're at the range, keep track of how many rounds fail to fire out of the total amount fire and how many first rounds fail to fire out of total magazines fired (for each particular gun /[ammo load would be awesome]). As I understand failure rates are rather low anyways. But with those two stats one can calculate the probability that a pistol will fire X amount of rounds without failure. For example 5 rounds:
total number of rounds fired minus total rounds failed to fire = X. Number of magazines - total number of first rounds failed to fire =Y(Y over total number of magazines fired)x(X over total rounds)x(X over total rounds)x(X over total rounds)x(X over total rounds) should equal probability of firing 5 rounds without failure. My math could be screwy though, let me know if it is.

 

[chmsam]

Don't know of any data.

A quality, clean, and well maintained firearm is less likely to be a problem. The same goes for ammo. If you get into reloading ammo, consistency is a key element.

Wheel guns are simpler devices and theoretically less prone to failure than semi autos and that is what makes them good choices for beginners.

Whatever you decide to get, expect to practice a lot with it and learn to maintain it well. Otherwise don't waste your time or money. A lot of people swear they will, few actually do.

 

[LukeA]

Saturday:

Out of ~250 .22LR 3 failed to fire.

Out of 100 .45ACP 0 failed to fire.

 

[Lightraven]

Not sure I'd take firearms advice from a private investigator unless he used to be a cop--preferably an firearms instructor.

I recently qualified and one day later took a combat handgun course and my H&K fired about 470 rounds, give or take. I had exactly one malfunction, that I cleared by slapping the magazine and pulling the slide. My past experience with this model of handgun, with this number of rounds fired, is the same.

Past experience with several Berettas and a Springfield XD was similar. About 1 easily cleared malfunction for every 400-500 rounds--all of them during high round combat courses, not qualification. A Glock 27 gave me many problems and I sold it.

Since our on duty median defensive shooting is about 2 rounds fired (with rare shootings skewing the mean way up), that reliability is more than adequate.

 

[gorn]

I've never been a private investigator but I did spend almost 30 years as a Deputy Sheriff. Most of those years I was a firearms instructor. If you decide to get a semiauto make sure you train with it. Most of the malfunctions i've seen with semiautos over the years has been user induced. A limp wrist can cause a semiauto to do things you don't really want it to do.

If you have a failure to fire caused by bad ammo you can tap and rack the pistol to get it going again in about a second. If you have no firearms experience and don't intend on taking the time needed to learn how to use one you shouldn't get one. If you still insist on getting one without obtaining the knowledge and training to use it properly then get a revolver.

 

[Daekar]

A couple of points:

1) In my experience, FTF with quality centerfire ammo is very rare assuming it is being fired in a gun that is in good condition.

2) Many types of pistol (my H&K P2000 Law-Enforcement Modification, for instance) function such that a second trigger-pull after a FTF will provide a second strike on a failed primer. I can count the number of centerfire rounds I've encountered out of many thousands (rifle and pistol) that didn't fire on a second hit on the primer on one hand.

3) Training and practice will help you clear a jam quickly if you need to.

4) One downside of a semi-auto vs a revolver is mag-spring fatigue. If you're like me, you leave your carry pistols loaded 24/7/365 and so the springs are compressed all the time. It is possible that over a long period of time of disuse, a mag-spring could weaken and cause feeding problems. In general, high-quality mag-springs don't have this happen, but cheap ones (this may include milsurp) are relatively more likely.

5) All that being said, I carry two semi-auto pistols daily and I have never had any problems with FTFs or mag-spring fatigue. My feeling on the matter is, my main pistol offer second-hits on primers and my mag-springs never fail me. If I bought a gun to keep in a car or other "stash" location, I would buy a .357 revolver, load it, and never give its reliability, power,weight, size, or magazine capacity a second thought. Highest reliability, high-power, heavy-weight, too big to carry, and low mag capacity. They are what they are.

For the sake of completeness, my carry setup includes 13+1 in my P2000, two extra 13 rds mags, and 6+1 in my Keltec P3AT. I like the security of extra shots.

 

[american lockpicker]

Get a Glock there as reliable as revolvers also most of the new ones accept weapon lights.

 

[Sgt. LED]

Worry about FTF at a later time.

First go out and shoot everything you can get your hands on so you can get a feel for what you like and can regularly hit with. With that info you can narrow it down further going by caliber choice then maker.

Then get yourself a dummy round and run FTF drills on the range. Get fast clearing it properly and build confidence. It's one of the most important things you can do for yourself.

After ruling out limp wristing problems:
Failure to feed is usually a mag problem and failure to fire is usually bad ammo.

Now get out there and run through some ammo!

 

[Bullzeyebill]

When I had my Glock 17 the only time it FTF was when I limp wristed it.

Bill

 

[Sub_Umbra]

Revolvers require less training and will pretty much shoot anything that can be crammed into the chambers. Right out of the box.

If your primary use is combat there are other considerations. One of my rules that I followed for combat autos was to never depend on one until it was broken in -- some autos may take up to 1,000 rounds to break in. Once I find a cartridge that works well I'll stick with it and I'd like to run 1,000 rounds of it through a gun with no malfunctions before I have to depend on it. That rule dovetails well with my 1,000 round break in rule which precedes it. That may seem excessive to many -- those are just rules for me.

I've found that a high quality large framed auto that is broken in and well maintained will nearly never fail to fire as long as it is fed what it likes. I really think that modern smokeless ammo is so good that the private investigator's advice in the OP misses the mark. With the fine tolerances of machined parts on a good wheel-gun if it stops shooting the ammo probably won't be the problem.

One of the standard tests before accepting a given model of semi-automatic pistol for military issue is to load it up and then stir a bucket of mud with it before firing it. Service pistols take it in stride but I wouldn't want to do it to a revolver I had to depend on.

I really think that your revolver vs auto decision should be guided by how much effort (and money, too) you are willing to invest in your own familiarization and training with the piece. That is the big question, IMO.

It is widely known that combat training for autos is far more complex than for revolvers. Steven Hunter's brilliant nonfiction account of the attempted assassination of Harry Truman, "American Gunfight," gives a great deal of detail on the problems caused by a lack of training with both autos and revolvers -- but the problems he illustrates for the uninitiated with autos are truly spectacular. Highly recommended.

If it's not for defense none of the above matters.

 

[russthetoolman]

I wanted to say "Very well said" That is spoken from experience that I share also from teaching family and friends to shoot. It's more the person lacking the knowledge of cleaning and lubing the guns and proper hold during recoil that cause malfunctions and missed shots.
Russ

I've never been a private investigator but I did spend almost 30 years as a Deputy Sheriff. Most of those years I was a firearms instructor. If you decide to get a semiauto make sure you train with it. Most of the malfunctions i've seen with semiautos over the years has been user induced. A limp wrist can cause a semiauto to do things you don't really want it to do.

If you have a failure to fire caused by bad ammo you can tap and rack the pistol to get it going again in about a second. If you have no firearms experience and don't intend on taking the time needed to learn how to use one you shouldn't get one. If you still insist on getting one without obtaining the knowledge and training to use it properly then get a revolver.

 

[RyanA]

Saturday:

Out of ~250 .22LR 3 failed to fire.

Out of 100 .45ACP 0 failed to fire.

Sorry Luke, my math was all messed up as I compounded the number of shots the likely hood of a jam was going down, then I realized I was figuring out the probability that all rounds would jam. I fixed it.
P of five rounds w/o jamming (247/250)(247/250)(247/250)(247/250)(247/250) = .941 (94.1%)

Not sure I'd take firearms advice from a private investigator unless he used to be a cop--preferably an firearms instructor.

I recently qualified and one day later took a combat handgun course and my H&K fired about 470 rounds, give or take. I had exactly one malfunction, that I cleared by slapping the magazine and pulling the slide. My past experience with this model of handgun, with this number of rounds fired, is the same.

Past experience with several Berettas and a Springfield XD was similar. About 1 easily cleared malfunction for every 400-500 rounds--all of them during high round combat courses, not qualification. A Glock 27 gave me many problems and I sold it.

Since our on duty median defensive shooting is about 2 rounds fired (with rare shootings skewing the mean way up), that reliability is more than adequate.

I began this tread as a way to disprove my buddy actually.

So on average 1 out of 450 lets say. So five rounds w/o jamming (449/450)(449/450)(449/450)(449/450)(449/450)= .988 (98.8%)

I could be wrong but because the revolver is shots are not dependent on one another it is just ([imaginary #'s] 449/450) = .997 (99.7%)

So even with a revolver with 6 shots a comparable automatic would have a probability of .988 (449/450) = ~.985 (98.5%)

By those numbers I'd say the extra capacity is worth any extra risk.

 

[Sgt. LED]

:thumbsup: Good, you're going auto.

Now what frame size are you comfortable with? How big are your hands?

 

[RyanA]

As an aside,
I do intend to spend time training regularly. I have been looking at a Glock 19.
I am a bit curious about this phenomenon that occurs with limp wristing as many have mentioned.
and I will have to look into American Gunfight as well.
As far as the re-strike feature that was mentioned, I've also been looking at a sig 229 dak, I'm wondering if you've found the feature to be useful as I've read some rather intense arguments about this (please, I don't intend this to be a thread about re-strike, although it would also be interesting to see the percentage of light strike failures)

 

[RyanA]

:thumbsup: Good, you're going auto.

Now what frame size are you comfortable with? How big are your hands?

Oh yeah, I've been leaning in the auto direction for a while, but numbers help. (I'm a nerd) More numbers are always welcome!lovecpf

I have short but wide fingers. I guess average sized overall.

 

[LukeA]

Sorry Luke, my math was all messed up as I compounded the number of shots the likely hood of a jam was going down, then I realized I was figuring out the probability that all rounds would jam. I fixed it.
P of five rounds w/o jamming (247/250)(247/250)(247/250)(247/250)(247/250) = .941 (94.1%)

That means there's a 94.1% chance that all five rounds will fire without a misfire. And that's true of moderately cheap rimfire .22LR. It's still 98.8% for one round.

The percentages are significantly higher for quality centerfire rounds (above 99% for five rounds). And even in the highly unlikely event of a failure, it's a matter of one second to slap the mag and cycle the slide.

 

[american lockpicker]

For what its worth I've shot around 10,000 rounds and the only time I've had misfires is with around 10 .22 LR rounds out of around 7000 + I've shot and with some Iraqi 7.5 French that was very old and in poor condition. Stick with premium ammo (Speer Lawman) and you should be fine.

 

[Lightraven]

RyanA,

Don't worry about liking math and statistics, I like that stuff too.

Just remember that the real world is more complex. For example, it is very common for the first shot to send the bad guys running for their lives or surrendering. Yeah, some fight to the bitter end, as we saw in Oakland, but that seems to be the exception. So, the first shot is much more important than the rest.

Many malfunctions occur during the cycling of a semi-automatic, so you typically get the first shot, at least. There are exceptions such as failure to chamber a round, safety on, bad primer, blocked barrel, firing pin problem, etc.

I was issued a revolver when I first became a LEO, and it never failed in any way. I didn't put a lot of rounds through it, but there's no doubt that revolvers should be very reliable. However, they can fail due to neglect, bad ammo or bad luck, like anything else.

A more relevant problem of revolvers, especially hammerless concealment types, is long heavy trigger and rudimentary or non existent sights. In .38 special, you also get a weaker caliber than a .40 or .45 caliber. With .357 magnum revolvers, you get intense recoil and flash. All those factors lead to difficulty hitting your target. I was told a story of a LEO who made a hostage rescue shot with a Chief's special revolver to save his wife from having her throat cut by a bad guy. She was shot and killed. Bad guy was not hurt.

Ammo capacity is nice for the very, very rare instance when 5 shots doesn't end the problem. But the real advantage is short, light triggers with short reset and full front and rear sights with tritium if desired. You can make every shot count and are less likely to hurt the good guys and gals.

 

[Sgt. LED]

As an aside,
I do intend to spend time training regularly. I have been looking at a Glock 19.
I am a bit curious about this phenomenon that occurs with limp wristing as many have mentioned.

As far as the re-strike feature that was mentioned, I've also been looking at a sig 229 dak, I'm wondering if you've found the feature to be useful as I've read some rather intense arguments about this

Limp wristing is kind of like letting your wrist absorb the recoil instead of your entire arm. Your wrist absorbs it in a way that doesn't hold the pistol still enough for the slide to function as it normally would. You are in essence robbing it of the energy to properly toss the empty out and to put the new round in it's place. I'm not explaining it too well......:shrug:

G19 would serve most very well. Sig costs a bit more but is really nice. Got a 226 and a 239 that I like. The 239 carries really well. Of course I have a G19 too..........I replaced all the controls and the internals as well, now it is superb. Wasn't bad before but I like to tinker and tune and the Glock lets you do that very easily.

I am not fond of the DAK. I've not had a need for it this far into life so I think it's a solution looking for a problem personally.

 

[Bullzeyebill]

SGT, You did pretty good explaining it. The slide needs to recoil against resistance in order to cycle properly. A limp hold of the handgun does not provide that resistance, and the slide may only recoil to the rear a short distance, not sufficiently stripping the round from the chamber, and or causing the slide to move forward before the spent case has exited the breech.

Bill